Global Financial Crisis (Was: Subprime Meltdown)

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by japelprime

I have been reading ewmayers post here about Iceland. Because I am in the middle of the situation here in Iceland and I am curious about the abroad news about the situation. Big thanks for the updates here. How the Icelandic government has been sleeping on their duty for years and how clueless they were when the crises hit them/us in the face is embarrassing. Poor judgment in so many situations for years says how the system has been running here.

Cheers.

Glad to be of service, JP - I admit I will always have a bit of a soft spot for Iceland after spending several weeks there in the summer of '95 and enjoying the hospitality of your countrymen.

One's government being asleep at the financial-regulatory switch is a familiar refrain for us as well in the U.S. [and UK, and Australia, and Spain, and Germany, and...] - obviously in Iceland the issue was tremendously magnified by the fact that the banking sector grew out of all proportion to the national economy, so the problem is literally "too big to bail". I wish you all the best - we can only hope that after what is sure to be a wrenching transition-back-to-basics, the Icelanders will use the same Nordic tenacity that allowed them to survive for the past 1000+ years to once again recover some measure of the high standard of living they have enjoyed for the past 50 years, but this time [as elsewhere] based on a long-term-sustainable economic model.

All the best to you,
-Ernst

[cheesehead]

Originally Posted by japelprime

I am in the middle of the situation here in Iceland and I am curious about the abroad news about the situation. Big thanks for the updates here. How the Icelandic government has been sleeping on their duty for years and how clueless they were when the crises hit them/us in the face is embarrassing. Poor judgment in so many situations for years says how the system has been running here.

Cheers.

1) I share Ernst's admiration of your country's and people's history and good wishes for your future.

2) Is there in Iceland, as in the US, a political faction that characteristically opposes business regulation and another that characteristically favors business regulation? Or is Iceland's politics not divided that way so much as here?

3) I have a very, very tiny connection to Iceland in that, about 15 years ago, I programmed a variation of my company's ATM software for one of your then-still-virtuous banks. I recall that, among other more-complicated currency considerations, it involved substituting "kronur" wherever our standard ATM screen display text had "dollars". The only other detail I recall is that it was dual-currency (Might that have been an early part of that bank's international venturism?).

4) Among the things I admire about Iceland is that a few years ago it was the only country to offer sanctuary to Bobby Fischer upon his deportation from Japan.

(Fischer has needed such sanctuary ever since the US issued a warrant for his arrest back in the 1980s(?) because he violated a US embargo by travelling to a Balkan country in order to play a chess match with Boris Spassky. The embargo has long expired, but not the warrant.)

[ewmayer]

Citigroup to lay off another 10,000 - report: Financial services company said to be gearing up for more job cuts, rate hikes for cardholders.


GM Collapse Would Cost U.S. Taxpayers Up to $200 Billion, Forecaster Says: General Motors Corp., seeking a federal bailout as its cash dwindles, would cost the government $200 billion should the biggest U.S. automaker be forced to liquidate, a forecasting firm estimated.


Poverty, Pension Fears Drive Japanese Seniors to Shoplift, Pick Pockets: More senior citizens are picking pockets and shoplifting in Japan to cope with cuts in government welfare spending and rising health-care costs in a fast-ageing society.

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- More senior citizens are picking pockets and shoplifting in Japan to cope with cuts in government welfare spending and rising health-care costs in a fast-ageing society.

Criminal offences by people 65 or older doubled to 48,605 in the five years to 2008, the most since police began compiling national statistics in 1978, a Ministry of Justice report said.

Theft is the most common crime of senior citizens, many of whom face declining health, low incomes and a sense of isolation, the report said. Elderly crime may increase in parallel with poverty rates as Japan enters another recession and the budget deficit makes it harder for the government to provide a safety net for people on the fringes of society.

``The elderly are turning to shoplifting as an increasing number of them lack assets and children to depend on,'' Masahiro Yamada, a sociology professor at Chuo University in Tokyo and an author of books on income disparity in Japan, said in an interview yesterday. ``We won't see the decline of elderly crimes as long as the income gap continues to rise.''

Crime rates among the elderly are rising as the overall rate for Japan has fallen for five consecutive years after peaking in 2002. Over 60s accounted for 18.9 percent of all crimes last year compared with 3.1 percent in 1978, with shoplifting accounting for 80 percent of the total, the report said.

The trend has captivated Japan's media, which include regular accounts of the latest thief or pickpocket as well as undercover footage of people shoplifting food in convenience stores and supermarkets.

...

``Some elderly, particularly men who lost their wives, even turn to crimes to be put in jail so they can be fed three times a day,'' Yamada said.

Still, Japan's weakening economy is not the only cause of elderly crime, Yamada said. The current generation of seniors grew up in the confusion of the aftermath of World War II, when crime rates in Japan were at their highest, he said.

``They don't feel guilty because they were the generation who recorded the highest youth crime rates when they were young.''

My Comment: No more Geritol for you, Oldster-san. On the plus side, Friday was reported as being a rare Godzilla-free day in Tokyo.


Freddie: $25B loss, taps tax dollars: Mortgage finance firm reports huge quarterly loss - Treasury pumps in $14 billion backstop.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Freddie Mac reported a $25 billion quarterly loss Friday that forced the mortgage finance giant to tap $100 billion in bailout money set aside by the government.

The loss triggered a $13.8 billion Treasury Department investment in Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500). The firm is likely to get the money by the end of the month; Treasury will receive preferred shares in return. A Treasury spokeswoman did not have any immediate comment.

Treasury and regulator Federal Home Finance Authority announced on Sept. 7 that they had taken control of Freddie and Fannie Mae, the other giant mortgage finance company, when it became clear that mounting losses on bad mortgages would cause them to run out money.

At the time, the Treasury committed $100 billion apiece to back up the two firms. Friday's announcement is the first major investment of taxpayer cash into the firms during the current crisis.

Freddie's third-quarter loss came to $19.44 a share, far larger than the $1.2 billion, or $2.07 a share it lost in the year-earlier period. Much of that loss came from a $14 billion non-cash charge to write down the value of tax credits it had built up. Doubts about the ability of the company to make money in the future and utilize those tax credits caused that charge.

It also took a $9 billion charge to write down the value of securities it held on its books.

But even without those charges, the company's performance was significantly worse than in previous quarters. Freddie's losses from credit-related expenses, essentially those on the loans that it backs or owns, soared to $6 billion, compared to $2.8 billion in the second quarter and $1.4 billion in the year-earlier period. Losses from non-interest expense also soared to $1.4 billion.

The total number of loans that are either 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure soared to 167,807 as of Sept. 30, up 46% from three months earlier. It set aside an additional $5.7 billion during the quarter to deal with the rising loan losses.
2 firms, $54 billion in losses

The stunning hit to Freddie Mac comes four days after the much larger Fannie Mae reported a $29 billion loss. Fannie has yet to start drawing on its $100 billion Treasury backstop, although it said it may have to tap into the money soon if losses continue at the current pace in the fourth quarter.

...

Jaret Seiberg, a financial services analyst at the Stanford Group, said the losses for Fannie and Freddie weren't really much of a surprise, given that the federal government has continued to depend on the firms to keep money flowing to the battered home loan market.

"Fannie and Freddie have become creatures of the federal government, and they're being used to achieve policy aims, not profit aims," said Seiberg. "You could have run them much more conservatively, put them in run-off mode. You could have allowed them to conserve capital rather than put it to work. But that would have been far worse for the economy."

On Tuesday, Treasury and the FHFA announced a new loan modification program aimed at home owners behind in their mortgage payments by three months or more whose home loans are either owned or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie. Under the program, interest rates on the loans could be reduced or payment schedules stretched out so that homeowners could better afford their loans.

My Comment: The Treasury/FHFA proposal sets up a power struggle within the Bush administration between the Paulson plan and the one proposed by the FDIC`s Sheila Bair.


Kashkari Takes a Beating From Congressmen on AIG, TARP, Christmas: On Capitol Hill today, Neel Kashkari became the ``chump'' who stole Christmas.

Kashkari, who oversees the Treasury's $700 billion financial rescue plan, came under fire at a congressional hearing, notably by Maryland Democrat Elijah Cummings. Cummings was angry about reports American International Group Inc., which got an expanded $150 billion government bailout this week, is setting aside $503 million in compensation for executives.

``I'm just wondering how you feel about an AIG giving $503 million worth of bonuses on the one hand, and accepting $154 billion from hard-working taxpayers,'' Cummings asked Kashkari. ``What really bothers me is all these other people who are lining up. They say, well, is Kashkari a chump?''

My Comment: In their defense, the members of the panel acknowledged that they were taking our their frustrations with the treasury as a whole on Kashkari. Like the Southwest Airlines ad series which fetaures fictional people getting themselves into horribly embarassing pickles put it, "Wanna get away?"

[japelprime]

Originally Posted by cheesehead

1) I share Ernst's admiration of your country's and people's history and good wishes for your future.

Thanks Guys

Originally Posted by cheesehead

2) Is there in Iceland, as in the US, a political faction that characteristically opposes business regulation and another that characteristically favors business regulation? Or is Iceland's politics not divided that way so much as here?

We have same political faction here. For the last 12 years we have parties in majority that have not want to much business regulation. Probably costing us the setback. The governments have been selling state property’s last 10 years to people that is “politicaly correct” some will call upon corruption.

Originally Posted by cheesehead

3) I have a very, very tiny connection to Iceland in that, about 15 years ago, I programmed a variation of my company's ATM software for one of your then-still-virtuous banks. I recall that, among other more-complicated currency considerations, it involved substituting "kronur" wherever our standard ATM screen display text had "dollars". The only other detail I recall is that it was dual-currency (Might that have been an early part of that bank's international venturism?).

Maybe you will have opportunity to come back now to change the programs as our króna is almost dead. There has been much pressure going on throwing our matador currency out in favor for euro.

Originally Posted by cheesehead

4) Among the things I admire about Iceland is that a few years ago it was the only country to offer sanctuary to Bobby Fischer upon his deportation from Japan.

(Fischer has needed such sanctuary ever since the US issued a warrant for his arrest back in the 1980s(?) because he violated a US embargo by travelling to a Balkan country in order to play a chess match with Boris Spassky. The embargo has long expired, but not the warrant.)

He had old friends here that advocated for him his lasts years. He was a great chess player and sad how things ended up for him. His sickness in the end could be taken care of but he refused any help. Looks like he was fed up in his- and our world.

Cheers

[ewmayer]

Home prices in record 9% decline: Foreclosures take heavy toll on home prices but bargain hunters are re-entering worst-hit markets.


Citigroup to cut more than 50,000 jobs: New York City-based bank unveils massive layoff plan -- the latest step by the embattled firm to slim down in response to the economic slowdown.


Sun Microsystems to cut up to 6,000 jobs: In cost-cutting move, the computer company said it would reduce its payroll by up to 18% and restructure its software business operations.

My Comment: Apparently Sun`s dire straits didn`t prevent its top execs from paying themselves handsome bonuses this year.


Internet retail growth rate at 7-year low: Online sales rose only 1% in October, marking the sixth straight month of slowing rates.


Producer Prices Plunge 2.8%, Most on Record, as Commodities Demand Shrinks: Prices paid to U.S. producers plunged in October by the most on record as the faltering global economy caused demand for commodities to dry up.


Paulson Clashes With Congress, Warns Against Using Bailout as a `Panacea': Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson rejected using the government's financial-rescue program as a ``panacea'' for economic difficulties, clashing with lawmakers who want the funds to help beleaguered homeowners and automakers.

``The rescue package was not intended to be an economic stimulus or an economic recovery package,'' Paulson said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington. The $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program was designed to stabilize financial markets and the flow of credit and ``is not a panacea for all our economic difficulties.''

My Comment: Exactly right, Mr. Hank - using any of the $700B bank-bailout money which you recently flip-flopped on how to spend would be like using a pot of bouillabaisse as a toilet. These monies are strictly for the vital purpose of allowing the Big Finance players to keep paying their executives` outsized compensation packages. clearly doing so is vital to retaining all this wonderful "top talent" whose "creativity" [I find "greed", albeit accurate, sounds rather harsh, so let`s make nice and put a positive spin on things, shall we] helped engender our current state of affairs. Interestingly, one exception to the gimme-my-bonus-goddammit crowd is none other than Paulson`s old form Goldman Sachs, whose execs just announced that they will forgo their 2008 bonuses. There, there - before you cry too many tears for Mr. Blankfein & Co., realize that if he lives frugally and pinches every penny, his $70 million bonus of last year should help get him through a few lean years, if only just.


China Surpasses Japan as Top Holder of Treasuries With Almost $600 Billion: China surpassed Japan in September to become the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, as foreign investors sought the relative safety of government debt as stocks plunged 9.1 percent that month.

“The details of the report paint a much more positive picture of cross-border investments than expected,” said Michael Woolfolk, a senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. “China, along with others, is showing more demand than anticipated for U.S. assets.”

My Comment: Translation: Americans, meet your future masters - and don`t say you weren`t warned. Now make yourself feel better by doing some power shopping at Target or Wal-Mart! You deserve it!

[ewmayer]

[Forgot to post my collected news links yesterday]

U.S. Consumer Prices, Housing Starts Fall, Signal Worst Slowdown Since '83: The cost of living in the U.S. fell by the most on record and construction began on the fewest homes ever last month, evidence the economy is in the worst recession in at least a quarter century.

The consumer price index plunged 1 percent last month, the most since records began in 1947, the Labor Department said in Washington. Commerce Department figures showed housing starts tumbled to an annual rate of 791,000, indicating the industry’s contraction may extend into a fourth year.

Today’s CPI report signals deflation, or a prolonged price slide, may become another hazard facing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and President-elect Barack Obama. Deflation could worsen the economic downturn by making debts harder to pay off and countering the impact of Fed interest-rate cuts.

“The economy’s really just in horrific shape,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. Fed officials will “take rates as low as they have to” to avoid “a deflation-type scenario, which now all of a sudden is very possible.”

My Comment: Rather ironic that Ben Bernanke`s PhD thesis was on the deflationary spiral that occurred during the Great Depression. Like Bernanke, Mr. LaVorgna is clueless as what to do, because interest rate cuts in this environment are useless - the cure for what ails you [decades of much-too-easy credit] is not more of what ails you.


Chrysler Considered, Abandoned Bankruptcy Before Aid Push, Nardelli Says: Chrysler LLC Chief Executive Officer Robert Nardelli said his company studied a prearranged bankruptcy before dismissing the idea as unworkable and approaching the U.S. government for money to survive.

My Comment: "Unworkable" translates to: "Why file Chapter 11 when you can get the taxpayers to bail you out? everybody else is doing it, why not us?" Just play the "systemic risk" card, tell congress that "letting us fail would plunge the entire economy into the second Great Depression ... and would mean that the terrorists have won, and stuff", and presto! Here`s your multibillion-dollar bailout check, make sure to spend it all on lavish executive bonuses and shareholder dividends before you really do file for bankruptcy.


BASF to Temporarily Close 80 Plants, Trim Output at Others; Profit to Fall: BASF SE, the world's largest chemical company, lowered its profit forecast for the second time and plans to idle 80 factories after customers in the auto, construction and textile industries reduced orders.

The German maker of styrene for cups and waterproof coatings for clothes fell the most in 16 years in Frankfurt trading after abandoning a goal to match last year's profit. Ludwigshafen-based BASF said it will halt or curtail production at plants in Germany, Belgium, the U.S. and China, forcing about 20,000, or one-fifth of its employees, to reduce overtime, work shorter hours and take unused vacation.

BASF, which supplies catalytic converters to Volkswagen AG and concrete additives to Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co., said demand dropped ``significantly'' since the end of October as customers struggled to get credit and reduced inventories after world economies slumped. Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, said Nov. 14 it will take ``radical actions'' to reach earnings targets next year.

My Comment: What is needed is less "radical actions to reach earnings targets" which were based on bull-market trends, but rather prudent actions to ensure survival and long-term viability of one`s concern through what is shaping up to be a brutal multiyear recession. Slashing payrolls is of course a quick short-term fix which boosts "earnings", but how those job cuts and hours reductions are done can have a big effect on long-term prospects. If you simply slash payrolls and don`t take care to retain top talent and business units with excellent long-term prospects, placating your shareholders now could prove ruinous [or at best very costly] later on. On the other hand, given the rapidity of the slowdown of European industrial activity - especially in the automaking sector, which collectively is one of BASF's biggest customers, they probably had little choice but to cut as much and as quickly as reasonably possible.


Housing starts, permits at record lows: Key indicators plummet in October, spelling more bad news for the economy.

Housing starts reached an annual rate of 791,000 last month, the lowest level since the department began tracking starts in 1959. The rate tumbled 4.5% from the revised reading of 828,000 in September.

Building permits fell 12% to an annual rate of 708,000 in October, breaking the previous low of 709,000 in March 1975. The annual rate for September was revised to 805,000.

My Comment: If you adjust for the increase in U.S. population since 1959 and 1975, respectively, things look much worse than the simple absolute "lowest in X decades" comparisons indicate. Near-term prospects for recovery are pretty much summed up by the fact that Homebuilders' confidence in the housing market plunged to new record low last month.


American Express Delinquencies Rise to 4.4 Percent, Defaults at 7 percent: American Express Co. had its highest monthly increase in credit-card delinquencies on record in October as jobless claims rose, according to FBR Capital Markets.

Late payments rose 35 basis points to 4.4 percent last month, according to a report yesterday from FBR analysts led by Scott Valentin in Arlington, Virginia. The default rate increased 33 basis points to 6.96 percent, the highest since November 2005, the report said. The report didn't say what the previous record for delinquencies was. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

American Express has been battered by rising delinquencies and higher funding costs. The New York-based company became eligible for government funds when it won Federal Reserve approval to become a commercial bank on Nov. 11 as frozen credit markets choked off affordable financing.

Becoming a bank won't relieve American Express from having to borrow money in the bond market, the analysts said.

``We do not believe that American Express will be able to grow deposits to a significant enough level that meaningfully reduces its dependence on capital markets-related funding,'' the analysts wrote.

There were no sales of bonds backed by credit-card payments in October, the first time since 1993, when the asset-backed securities market was in its infancy. Yields on top-rated credit card bonds relative to benchmark interest rates reached a record high of 525 basis points more than the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, last week, according to Bank of America Corp. data.

[ewmayer]

Stocks in U.S. Tumble, Sending S&P 500 Index Below Lowest Close Since 1997: U.S. stocks slid and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index plunged to its lowest level in 11 years after economic reports depicted a deepening recession and lawmakers postponed a vote on a plan to salvage the auto industry.


Fannie, Freddie Will Suspend Foreclosures Through Jan. 9 to Help Borrowers: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by the U.S. government, will suspend foreclosures and evictions over the holidays.


Auto-Rescue Agreement Reached by Senate Bipartisan Group; GM, Ford Surge: A group of U.S. senators has reached a bipartisan agreement on aiding U.S. automakers, said an aide to Democratic Senator Carl Levin of Michigan.

My Comment: GM shares, which plunged below $2 this morning, before this announcement, nearly doubled within the hour afterward before settling back around the day`s opening price of $3. This could all still easily fall apart, although (as happened previosuly with Paulson`s dire-threat-backed $700B TARP program) lawmakers are under heavy pressure to not let the U.S. automakers outright collapse. By the end of the day the early hopes for a quick bailout compromise had faded again, with House Democratic leaders saying they will return week of Dec. 8 if companies can show they have a 'viable' turnaround plan.


Jobless Claims Approach Highest Level Since 1982 as U.S. Recession Deepens: The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits approached a 26-year high, and a gauge of the economy's future performance dropped, sending yields on benchmark Treasuries to record lows.


JPMorgan Will Fire 3,000 in Investment Banking, Freeze Some Base Salaries: JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank, plans to fire about 10 percent of its investment banking staff, or about 3,000 people, as the global economy slides into recession, a person familiar with the bank said.

[Xyzzy]

CEO -- Chief embezzlement officer.

CFO -- Corporate fraud officer.

BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER -- What my broker has made me.

STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW -- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS 2000 -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse or behind bars!

PROFIT -- an archaic word no longer in use

[Fusion_power]

My investments are so safe I'm sleeping like a baby....

I wake every 2 hours and cry.

[ewmayer]

Nordic Countries to Lend Iceland $2.5 Billion

HELSINKI, Finland (AP) -- Four Nordic countries will lend Iceland $2.5 billion (euro1.98 billion) to help the country recover from its economic meltdown, their finance ministries said Thursday.

The decision by Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark came after the International Monetary Fund announced it had approved a $2.1 billion (euro1.66 billion) support package for Iceland.

''We stress that, as outlined in the IMF program, an ambitious multiyear fiscal consolidation program will help Iceland stabilize the economy, including the exchange rate, and reduce public debt over the medium-term,'' the finance ministries said in a joint statement.

Finnish Finance Ministry spokesman Martti Hetemaki said the share of each country had not yet been decided, but that Finland would have to borrow money to finance its contribution.

''We have a joint desire among the Nordics to help Iceland in extremely difficult economic conditions,'' Hetemaki said. ''The money will be used to stabilize the currency and finance its imports.''

Last month, Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde told his Nordic partners in Helsinki that his country needs some $6 billion to recover from the meltdown.

Norway loaned Iceland $242 million last month, but said it would provide more.

Iceland has already called on a swap facility, drawing $256 million each from the Norwegian and Danish central banks, but has not used the total of $636 million from each. A similar deal with Sweden's central bank has also been offered.

Approval of IMF's support package to Iceland had been held up because of a British-Icelandic dispute over Britons' accounts in failed Icelandic banks, but the dispute was settled Sunday.

Iceland's banking system has collapsed amid the global credit crunch. The country's currency, the krona, has lost half its value since January. Banking transactions to and from the island nation in the middle of the North Atlantic have seized up, leaving its population of 320,000 virtually stranded.

[ewmayer]

Geithner Chosen to Be Treasury Secretary; Summers to Serve in White House: President-elect Barack Obama picked Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to be his Treasury secretary, with Lawrence Summers getting a senior White House role, a Democratic aide said.

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- President-elect Barack Obama picked Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to be his Treasury secretary, with Lawrence Summers getting a senior White House role, a Democratic aide said.

Geithner helped lead the U.S. response to the deepest financial crisis in seven decades, including the takeover of American International Group Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. rescue, and decision to let Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fail.

Both he and Summers are veterans of managing financial turmoil, working together on the Asian financial crisis of 1997- 98 and staving off a Mexican default earlier that decade. They will be charged with shepherding Obama’s plans for a fiscal stimulus to cushion an economy that analysts say is in its deepest recession in a quarter century.

Geithner is “extremely able, but also helps provide some continuity,” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said today in a telephone interview. “He ought to be very reassuring to the markets.”

The U.S. stock market’s benchmark index climbed from an 11- year low after news of Obama’s pick.

Summers, Bill Clinton‘s last Treasury secretary and now a professor at Harvard University, would have a post that positions him to succeed Ben S. Bernanke as Fed chairman, central-bank watchers said.

Citigroup May Get U.S. Government Rescue After Stock's Skid, Investors Say: [i]Citigroup Inc. will probably get rescued by the U.S. government after a crisis in confidence erased half its stock-market value in three days, investors and analysts said.[i]

Citigroup has more than $2 trillion of assets, dwarfing companies such as American International Group Inc. that got U.S. support this year. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may favor a rescue to avoid the chaotic aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy in September.

“There is no question that Citi is in the category of ‘too big to fail,’” said Michael Holland, chairman and founder of Holland & Co. in New York, which oversees $4 billion. “There is a commitment from this administration and the next to do what it takes to save Citi.”

While Citigroup executives say the company has adequate capital and liquidity to ride out the crisis, its tumbling share price may shake the confidence of creditors, clients and rating agencies. A similar scenario played out at Lehman, when Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld declared the firm was “on the right track” five days before the firm went bankrupt.

My Comment: Citi may have $2 trillion of stated assets, but added to that is roughly $1 trillion of mystery assets hidden off their balance sheet.