When will HD and flash drive prices converge?

jasong · 2007-04-27, 23:27

I'm attempting to figure out approximately when hard drive and flash drive prices will converge. I'm putting this in the Hardware section because I'm convinced that people will be interested in the answer, even if they're not interested in the mathematics.

Here are the facts we're dealing with:

flash drive space costs approximately 5 times as much as hard drive space.
hard drive space costs approximately half as much every 12 months.
flash drive space costs approximately half as much every 9 months.

So, assuming these are absolutes, even though we know they're just heuristics, when do they converge?

cheesehead · 2007-04-27, 23:54

Solve

5 * 2^-M/9 = 2^-M/12

where M = number of months from now

TimSorbet · 2007-04-28, 00:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesehead

Solve

5 * 2^-M/9 = 2^-M/12

where M = number of months from now

I ran it on my calculator, and, assuming the numbers jasong provided are perfect and constant, it will be ~83.59 months from now. That's ~12 days under 7 years, which means it will be on April 15th, 2014 that their prices converge.

moo · 2007-04-30, 04:12

wouldn't you need to factor in the fact that new mfg methods and different technologies that would reduce the cost of production of flash drives and replacement of hard drives with something else causing there prices to go up.

cheesehead · 2007-04-30, 06:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by moo

wouldn't you need to factor in the fact that new mfg methods and different technologies that would reduce the cost of production of flash drives and replacement of hard drives with something else causing there prices to go up.

Sure -- just give us the appropriate numbers! :-)

With what jasong gave (which may already include the factors you mention), it's ~7 years. Besides, it's only an estimate either way.

ewmayer · 2007-12-21, 16:54

http://bigtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com...ple-flash-mac/

henryzz · 2007-12-21, 17:43

elementary algebra

ewmayer · 2007-12-21, 20:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by henryzz

elementary algebra

"Is that -40 degrees Centigrade, or Fahrenheit?"

xilman · 2007-12-21, 20:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewmayer

"Is that -40 degrees Centigrade, or Fahrenheit?"

Yes.

michaf · 2007-12-22, 09:30

I'd say the answer is 42

2007-04-27, 23:27	#1
jasong "Jason Goatcher" Mar 2005 3·7·167 Posts	When will HD and flash drive prices converge? I'm attempting to figure out approximately when hard drive and flash drive prices will converge. I'm putting this in the Hardware section because I'm convinced that people will be interested in the answer, even if they're not interested in the mathematics. Here are the facts we're dealing with: flash drive space costs approximately 5 times as much as hard drive space. hard drive space costs approximately half as much every 12 months. flash drive space costs approximately half as much every 9 months. So, assuming these are absolutes, even though we know they're just heuristics, when do they converge?

2007-12-21, 16:54	#6
ewmayer ∂²ω=0 Sep 2002 República de California 2DEC₁₆ Posts	Apple to Unveil a FlashBook? http://bigtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com...ple-flash-mac/

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2007-04-27, 23:54	#2
cheesehead "Richard B. Woods" Aug 2002 Wisconsin USA 2²·3·641 Posts	Solve 5 * 2^-M/9 = 2^-M/12 where M = number of months from now

2007-04-30, 04:12	#4
moo Jul 2004 Nowhere 809 Posts	wouldn't you need to factor in the fact that new mfg methods and different technologies that would reduce the cost of production of flash drives and replacement of hard drives with something else causing there prices to go up.

2007-12-21, 17:43	#7
henryzz Just call me Henry "David" Sep 2007 Liverpool (GMT/BST) 13775₈ Posts	elementary algebra

2007-12-22, 09:30	#10
michaf Jan 2005 1DF₁₆ Posts	I'd say the answer is 42