Milestones

MrHappy · 2005-01-06, 17:44

I would like to see the following feature in some way (forum thread, PrimeNet output, etc.): The expected date when we (at current pace) will reach some milestones like
- first-time LL assignments melt with 33M+ LL assignments
- last exponent up to 79.3M assigned for LL
- last exponent up to 79.3M assigned for DC
- doublechecking proves X is the Yth mersenne prime
- ...

What do you think about it?

Uncwilly · 2005-01-06, 23:01

I think that the first one will be around Apr 1, 2006
Next Jan 1 2010
Next Jan 1 2011

cheesehead · 2005-01-07, 07:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrHappy

I would like to see the following feature in some way (forum thread, PrimeNet output, etc.): The expected date when we (at current pace) will reach some milestones like ...

You could create a poll thread for each one.

leifbk · 2005-01-07, 09:14

It's always dangerous to extrapolate from current trends, but let's take a quick look at the figures:

According to the GIMPS Status page, there's 24631614 P90 years of LL work left. The current throughput according to PrimeNet Status is 1258.772 P90 LL yrs/day, equivalent to 1258.772*365 = 459451.78 P90 yrs/yr. So, 24631614 / 459451.78 gives an estimate of 53.6 years of LL work left (I think, correct me if my reasoning is wrong).

Thus, UncWilly's estimate of Jan 1 2011 seems grossly exaggerated. Even if 20GHz, 64-bits, dual-CPU machines will become commodity level in a few years (which I sincerely doubt), we're probably talking about decades anyway.

One unknown factor is the Chinese, of course. If they're getting several hundred millions of computers in a few years, a significant part of them may decide to join GIMPS. But then, the GIMPS project may have to be shut down because of its contribution to global warming

regards, Leif.

MrHappy · 2005-01-07, 11:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesehead

You could create a poll thread for each one.

Maybe I get you wrong, but I ment no guessing but something like leifbk posted. An extrapolation based on current speed. Maybe just updated by hand every three months or so.
I would like to see: "Aaah! Event X was expected to be on April 25th 2054. NOW it is expected to happen on December 3rd 2038.

We are great!! bla bla..."
More stats for some people. More enthusiams for others. More involvement for the guys who do the calcualtions.

tom11784 · 2005-01-09, 06:57

but as those doing LMH work and such find factors we cut out the # of LL time required

for example - I've gotten about 5% of my 69-70M range so far, and if I can get another 3% of the remaining numbers to factor then we have plenty of LL time not needed anymore

but I agree that 2010 is a bit early

I'll guess 2018 for LLs assigned in the 79.3M
and 2022 for DCs assigned in 79.3M

2005-01-06, 17:44	#1
MrHappy Dec 2003 Paisley Park & Neverland 5·37 Posts	Milestones I would like to see the following feature in some way (forum thread, PrimeNet output, etc.): The expected date when we (at current pace) will reach some milestones like - first-time LL assignments melt with 33M+ LL assignments - last exponent up to 79.3M assigned for LL - last exponent up to 79.3M assigned for DC - doublechecking proves X is the Yth mersenne prime - ... What do you think about it?

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2005-01-06, 23:01	#2
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 23073₈ Posts	I think that the first one will be around Apr 1, 2006 Next Jan 1 2010 Next Jan 1 2011

2005-01-07, 09:14	#4
leifbk May 2004 Oslo, Norway 78₁₆ Posts	It's always dangerous to extrapolate from current trends, but let's take a quick look at the figures: According to the GIMPS Status page, there's 24631614 P90 years of LL work left. The current throughput according to PrimeNet Status is 1258.772 P90 LL yrs/day, equivalent to 1258.772*365 = 459451.78 P90 yrs/yr. So, 24631614 / 459451.78 gives an estimate of 53.6 years of LL work left (I think, correct me if my reasoning is wrong). Thus, UncWilly's estimate of Jan 1 2011 seems grossly exaggerated. Even if 20GHz, 64-bits, dual-CPU machines will become commodity level in a few years (which I sincerely doubt), we're probably talking about decades anyway. One unknown factor is the Chinese, of course. If they're getting several hundred millions of computers in a few years, a significant part of them may decide to join GIMPS. But then, the GIMPS project may have to be shut down because of its contribution to global warming regards, Leif.

2005-01-09, 06:57	#6
tom11784 Aug 2003 Upstate NY, USA 2·163 Posts	but as those doing LMH work and such find factors we cut out the # of LL time required for example - I've gotten about 5% of my 69-70M range so far, and if I can get another 3% of the remaining numbers to factor then we have plenty of LL time not needed anymore but I agree that 2010 is a bit early I'll guess 2018 for LLs assigned in the 79.3M and 2022 for DCs assigned in 79.3M