Will GIMPS make another discovery this year?

eepiccolo · 2003-01-02, 12:59

Hey, this is the first prime year in four years. :D Maybe we'll find the next known Mersenne this year?

philmoore · 2003-01-06, 23:00

Here is why I think we will see a new Mersenne prime discovered before the end of 2003:

1) The status page says that for all untested exponents up to 20,400,000, the number of expected new primes in this range is 0.60. I estimate that we will be handing out new exponents around 20,400,000 by the end of the year, so we at least have the right to be hopeful.

2) Chris Caldwell's page "Where is the next Mersenne prime?":
http://www.utm.edu/research/primes/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html
notes that actual data agrees quite well with the theoretical prediction that the geometric mean of the ratio p(n+1)/p(n) between two successive Mersenne prime exponents should be about 1.47576. Looking at the complete list of all known Mersenne primes, we see that we have been fairly unlucky with the last two discoveries since 13,466,917/6,972,593 is about 1.93 and 6,972,593/3,021,377 is about 2.31, but we have never before had three gaps in a row, all greater than 1.47576. So I predict the next Mersenne prime will turn up before we get to 1.47576*13,466,917, i.e., with an exponent less than 19.9 million.

cheesehead · 2003-01-07, 07:48

1) I voted No.

2) Every prediction I've made about yet-to-be-discovered Mersenne primes has been wrong, so far.

eepiccolo · 2003-01-07, 12:05

But cheesehead, if every prediction of yours so far has been wrong, doesn't that mean you're due to be right? ;) (gambler's folly)

cheesehead · 2003-01-08, 02:12

It's a win-win situation, ee.

Xyzzy · 2003-06-09, 03:51

Hmm...

cheesehead · 2003-06-09, 07:56

My streak is safe.

eepiccolo · 2003-06-09, 13:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesehead

My streak is safe.

Unless.... the double-check doesn't pan out

clowns789 · 2003-06-09, 16:00

The mathematical viewpoint is that they're going to find a new Mersenne prime in the end of 2003 and the 10 million digit one in 2.5 years.

2003-06-09, 20:19

LLR, has the potential to beat Prime95 to the 10 million digit award.
If only we could...Increase the probability

Complex33 · 2003-06-09, 22:20

I for one want to see GIMPS get the gold, the project has been so diligent and has a wonderful user base and a excellent leader, George. Plus I want GIMPS to have some operating capital and to see George's relentless work rewarded through the charity of his choice.

View Poll Results: Will GIMPS make another discovery this year?
0, I am not currently running gimps, there is no client for my PDA.	3	0.68%
1, I believe GIMPS is a good use of my time, but am not so in to it as a hobby.	21	4.76%
2-3, I have a small home network, or have my home and work machine on gimps.	23	5.22%
4-6, I have a small network at home/a few machines at work I admin.	22	4.99%
7-15, It is an obcession, true, but one I dreadfully enjoy. This is my mark on history.	14	3.17%
16+, I have the warmest apartment/have access to a large number of business or school-lab computers. My(coworkers/students) enjoy that they are making a difference and history.	20	4.54%
C	2	0.45%
D	6	1.36%
A	7	1.59%
B	3	0.68%
E	3	0.68%
F	3	0.68%
G	6	1.36%
H	1	0.23%
I	1	0.23%
Yes! Subforums are a great idea!	7	1.59%
No! I like thing the way they are!	12	2.72%
Yes!	8	1.81%
No!	10	2.27%
There are other projects?	5	1.13%
10	1	0.23%
20	1	0.23%
25	13	2.95%
50	9	2.04%
100	2	0.45%
All of them (!)	4	0.91%
Yes, I have a lot of junk^H^H^H^Hcool stuff to sell!	9	2.04%
No, it would just create a lot of problems!	16	3.63%
6 months	3	0.68%
1 year	18	4.08%
5 years	33	7.48%
10 years	4	0.91%
never	1	0.23%
~1x	1	0.23%
~4x	6	1.36%
~16x	9	2.04%
~64x	8	1.81%
>256x	8	1.81%
0. I only love GIMPS	16	3.63%
1. Mersenne primes don't provide instant gratification	12	2.72%
2-3. I'm interested in finding aliens and the cure for cancer.	6	1.36%
4-7. I have enough machines to go around.	1	0.23%
7-10. I'm obsessed with "distributed" everything.	3	0.68%
Mathematics	7	1.59%
Computer Science/Programming	10	2.27%
Engineering	8	1.81%
Physics	6	1.36%
Other	9	2.04%
Yes, and it will be over ten million digits!	2	0.45%
Yes, but it will be less than ten million digits.	26	5.90%
No, this year will be another slump.	12	2.72%
Voters: 441. You may not vote on this poll

2003-01-02, 12:59	#1
eepiccolo Dec 2002 Frederick County, MD 2×5×37 Posts	Will GIMPS make another discovery this year? Hey, this is the first prime year in four years. :D Maybe we'll find the next known Mersenne this year?

2003-01-06, 23:00	#2
philmoore "Phil" Sep 2002 Tracktown, U.S.A. 45F₁₆ Posts	Another Mersenne discovery this year? Here is why I think we will see a new Mersenne prime discovered before the end of 2003: 1) The status page says that for all untested exponents up to 20,400,000, the number of expected new primes in this range is 0.60. I estimate that we will be handing out new exponents around 20,400,000 by the end of the year, so we at least have the right to be hopeful. 2) Chris Caldwell's page "Where is the next Mersenne prime?": http://www.utm.edu/research/primes/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html notes that actual data agrees quite well with the theoretical prediction that the geometric mean of the ratio p(n+1)/p(n) between two successive Mersenne prime exponents should be about 1.47576. Looking at the complete list of all known Mersenne primes, we see that we have been fairly unlucky with the last two discoveries since 13,466,917/6,972,593 is about 1.93 and 6,972,593/3,021,377 is about 2.31, but we have never before had three gaps in a row, all greater than 1.47576. So I predict the next Mersenne prime will turn up before we get to 1.47576*13,466,917, i.e., with an exponent less than 19.9 million.

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2003-01-07, 07:48	#3
cheesehead "Richard B. Woods" Aug 2002 Wisconsin USA 1E0C₁₆ Posts	1) I voted No. 2) Every prediction I've made about yet-to-be-discovered Mersenne primes has been wrong, so far.

2003-01-07, 12:05	#4
eepiccolo Dec 2002 Frederick County, MD 562₈ Posts	But cheesehead, if every prediction of yours so far has been wrong, doesn't that mean you're due to be right? ;) (gambler's folly)

2003-01-08, 02:12	#5
cheesehead "Richard B. Woods" Aug 2002 Wisconsin USA 2²·3·641 Posts	It's a win-win situation, ee.

2003-06-09, 03:51	#6
Xyzzy "Mike" Aug 2002 2⁵×257 Posts	Hmm...

2003-06-09, 07:56	#7
cheesehead "Richard B. Woods" Aug 2002 Wisconsin USA 1E0C₁₆ Posts	My streak is safe.

2003-06-09, 16:00	#9
clowns789 Jun 2003 The Computer 2³×7² Posts	The mathematical viewpoint is that they're going to find a new Mersenne prime in the end of 2003 and the 10 million digit one in 2.5 years.

2003-06-09, 20:19	#10
TTn 11036₈ Posts	LLR, has the potential to beat Prime95 to the 10 million digit award. If only we could...Increase the probability

2003-06-09, 22:20	#11
Complex33 Aug 2002 Texas 5·31 Posts	I for one want to see GIMPS get the gold, the project has been so diligent and has a wonderful user base and a excellent leader, George. Plus I want GIMPS to have some operating capital and to see George's relentless work rewarded through the charity of his choice.