Manic of a panic is geopolitical

[xilman]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

I did. And at this point, it's hard to think of anywhere that's outside the "target area."

Sigh.

It could well have originated in a US bioweapons lab and then been delivered to, say, Wuhan.

If that is the case, and I do not believe that CT, the outbreak would NOT surely have broken out in the US first, again under the assumption that it had been delivered with due care.

One reason I do not believe that CT is that the US quite clearly does not have the capability of keeping friendly fire casualties to an acceptable limit.

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by xilman

<snip>
One reason I do not believe that CT is that the US quite clearly does not have the capability of keeping friendly fire casualties to an acceptable limit.

Precisely! That absolutely blows any idea of the virus being "targeted" by the US clean out the back door.

I further note that Iran has also officially speculated that they were the "target."

Oh, I know. There is one country that claims it has no cases of COVID-19 -- DPRK. And they are known to have an extensive bioweapons program. Then too, a lot of people have looked with wonder at the small number of cases reported by Russia...

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

I further note that Iran has also officially speculated that they were the "target."

Oh, I know. There is one country that claims it has no cases of COVID-19 -- DPRK. And they are known to have an extensive bioweapons program. Then too, a lot of people have looked with wonder at the small number of cases reported by Russia...

Nations have been subjected to "shock and awe" level ordnance expenditures for less than what is the likely outcome of this occurrence. Not a recommendation, just an observation.

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by kladner

Did you bother to read, or are your prejudices* in full control?
*pre-judgements

According to some of those reports, "some or many" of the 14,000 deaths in the US attributed to seasonal flu were actually from COVID-19.

If that were true, it would mean that the virus had been running untrammeled through the US population for a good part of the flu season. In which case, it's a wonder that, at this point, there's anyone left to infect.

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

If only the old CRT TV sets and monitors were still around! You could just swipe the envelopes across the screen. Anybody who ever swiped their hand across a CRT screen would remember the crackling of static, and the unforgettable smell it left on your hand. Ozone!

Maybe if you have have a blacklight handy...

Re old CRT TVs, they ARE still around. Millions of digital converters were produced to keep them useful after the US changeover to digital broadcast. I have 3 CRT TVs and 2 converters here. They do take a bit of power.
Re UV light sources ("black light" in common parlance) ordinary compact fluorescents will leak a bit, and it will be a mix of mercury vapor lines. Older bulbs will leak more as the fluorescent coating wears. The 254nm line is close to the ~260nm absorption peak of DNA and presumably RNA. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercury-vapor_lamp. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=dna+uv+abs...ay-with-01.png LEDs have broader emission curves than vapor lamps, with the peak determined by the band-gap, which is in turn determined by the composition of the semiconductor. Band gap must increase with photon energy as wavelength reduces. (Other technologies such as frequency doublers following a visible light source are also possible.)

Many so-called UV Leds are purple at the dominant wavelength, with the short-wavelength tail falling in the UV, just as a lot of "infrared" LEDs such as used on consumer surveillance systems produce some visible red. Quite powerful LED arrays on ceramic substrates are available down to ~365nm dominant wavelength. Emission power declines drastically with wavelength. The wavelength limit is ~207nm for AlN LEDs. See s-et.com etc.
https://www.intl-lighttech.com/applications/uv-leds
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1707/1707.04223.pdf
A good survey is at https://www.intechopen.com/books/lig...n-deep-uv-leds

Optical output power levels expressed in microwatts are common for short-UV sources.

Since UV and blue light can cause both corneal and retinal damage, anyone experimenting with UV or blue or purple light sources should wear protective eyewear. See cataracts, macular degeneration, and partial or complete blindness. Blue light hazard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-e...e-light_hazard
There's also the prospect of "sunburned" hands, face, neck, etc. and possibly skin cancer. Melanoma can be deadly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melanoma

[xilman]

Applicable only to UK members, but perhaps other parts of the world may take note.

Off-licences are essential businesses and may stay open for business if they wish.

The compound noun "off-licence" is a technical term meaning that the holder of that licence may sell booze but that consumption of the merchandise may take place only when the purchaser is off the premises of the licencee.

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

According to some of those reports, "some or many" of the 14,000 deaths in the US attributed to seasonal flu were actually from COVID-19.

If that were true, it would mean that the virus had been running untrammeled through the US population for a good part of the flu season. In which case, it's a wonder that, at this point, there's anyone left to infect.

Unless an earlier strain of the virus mutated into a much more virulent and infectious form in the past several months, that seems unlikely - I mean NYC cases have been doubling every 3 days.

But maybe the CDC should exhume some of those earlier flu-or-not victims and look for viral RNA.

[retina]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

... NYC cases have been doubling every 3 days.

At the very least, all that is known, is that the number of people identified has doubled each 3 days. But that probably has very little relation with the number of people that have contracted the virus.

[xilman]

According to the Beeb

Jodie Whittaker, who plays Doctor Who, has posted a reassuring message for fans who are currently in lockdown around the world.

The Doctor prescribes telling bad jokes, being kind, listening to science and staying positive.

I am very strongly in favour of the first of those recommendations and support the other three.

My feeble attempt at the first is to point out that, even today, life expectation remains the same as it always has been. One each.

Perhaps inspiration will strike and I will be able to up my game.

[xilman]

UK appears to be following the Chinese trajectory.
Spain. France and US growth is still worryingly above the trend.
Italy appears to be levelling off.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by retina

At the very least, all that is known, is that the number of people identified has doubled each 3 days. But that probably has very little relation with the number of people that have contracted the virus.

Yes, it's possibly partly due to ramped-up testing - but the exploding need for hospital beds is telling a similar tale:

Getting back to the issue of the origins of the virus, we've heard way to much evidence-free speculating and conspiracy-theorizing of late. So how about some actual science?
Coronavirus origins: genome analysis suggests two viruses may have combined | The Conversation, March 18, 2020

In the space of a few weeks, we have all learned a lot about COVID-19 and the virus that causes it: SARS-CoV-2. But there have also been a lot of rumours.

And while the number of scientific articles on this virus is increasing, there are still many grey areas as to its origins.

In which animal species did it occur? A bat, a pangolin or another wild species? Where does it come from? From a cave or a forest in the Chinese province of Hubei, or elsewhere?

In December 2019, 27 of the first 41 people hospitalised (66 percent) passed through a market located in the heart of Wuhan city in Hubei province. But, according to a study conducted at Wuhan Hospital, the very first human case identified did not frequent this market.

Instead, a molecular dating estimate based on the SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences indicates an origin in November. This raises questions about the link between this COVID-19 epidemic and wildlife.

Genomic data

The SARS-CoV-2 genome was rapidly sequenced by Chinese researchers. It is an RNA molecule of about 30,000 bases containing 15 genes, including the S gene which codes for a protein located on the surface of the viral envelope (for comparison, our genome is in the form of a double helix of DNA about 3 billion bases in size and contains about 30,000 genes).

Comparative genomic analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the group of Betacoronaviruses and that it is very close to SARS-CoV, responsible for an epidemic of acute pneumonia which appeared in November 2002 in the Chinese province of Guangdong and then spread to 29 countries in 2003.

A total of 8,098 cases were recorded, including 774 deaths. It is known that bats of the genus Rhinolophus (potentially several cave species) were the reservoir of this virus and that a small carnivore, the palm civet (Paguma larvata), may have served as an intermediate host between bats and the first human cases.

Since then, many Betacoronaviruses have been discovered, mainly in bats, but also in humans. For example, RaTG13, isolated from a bat of the species Rhinolophus affinis collected in China's Yunan Province, has recently been described as very similar to SARS-CoV-2, with genome sequences identical to 96 percent.

These results indicate that bats, and in particular species of the genus Rhinolophus, constitute the reservoir of the SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.
...
RaTG13, isolated from a bat of the species Rhinolophus affinis collected in China’s Yunan Province, has recently been described as very similar to SARS-CoV-2, with genome sequences identical to 96 percent.

However, the coronavirus isolated from pangolin is similar at 99 percent in a specific region of the S protein, which corresponds to the 74 amino acids involved in the ACE (Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2) receptor binding domain, the one that allows the virus to enter human cells to infect them.

In addition, these genomic comparisons suggest that the SARS-Cov-2 virus is the result of a recombination between two different viruses, one close to RaTG13 and the other closer to the pangolin virus. In other words, it is a chimera between two pre-existing viruses.

This recombination mechanism had already been described in coronaviruses, in particular to explain the origin of SARS-CoV. It is important to know that recombination results in a new virus potentially capable of infecting a new host species.

For recombination to occur, the two divergent viruses must have infected the same organism simultaneously.

Two questions remain unanswered: in which organism did this recombination occur? (a bat, a pangolin or another species?) And above all, under what conditions did this recombination take place?

The "another species" of the last sentence presumably includes the possibility of an exotic-species-eating or exoctic-species-catching-and-selling human.