Manic of a panic is geopolitical

[S485122]

Perhaps I am mistaken, but I would think that, in the end, the epidemic will cover the whole world. In something I saw yesterday on television there was a hint the efforts at containment are more directed at preventing the different health systems being submerged by acute cases, than at really trying to stop the virus . Stopping it would mean stopping all travel, transport of goods and contact between people...

Jacob

[xilman]

Originally Posted by S485122

Perhaps I am mistaken, but I would think that, in the end, the epidemic will cover the whole world.

I would be astounded if you are mistaken.

Just wait until the epidemic hits South America, India and (especially) sub-Saharan Africa, They are likely to experience a few megadeaths between them, IMO. Purely from an epidemiological perspective densely populated China had the benefit of an authoritarian government and in-depth population monitoring.

AFAICT, the closest historical parallel is with Spanish flu, another coronavirus pandemic, which killed more people than the first world war. The over-developed world can afford intensive care units but does not yet have a usable vaccine for their own use, let alone those other countries.

[Spherical Cow]

Originally Posted by xilman

ITYM "Schengen travel ban".

Yes, you are right; I should have specified Schengen, which is the accurate description of the area from which travel is banned. Although, if you are a legal permanent resident of the US, or a family member, you can still travel from the Schengen area to the US.

And, it looks like travel from China is still restricted; I thought that had been lifted. But, travel from the other infected areas (South Korea, Japan, Australia, UK, etc.) to the US has not been banned.

Yes, the medical care is a huge worry- unless the infection rate is at least delayed and spread out a little over time, medical facilities and care could be swamped, resulting in more deaths than if everyone can be properly cared for. As you say, people who do not live in the over-developed countries are severely endangered.

Anyway, my point is that the administration's response is wrong. Too little, too late is a better cliche. An article I can agree with is here- https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...e-u-s-does-not

Norm

[kriesel]

The movie is making a comeback of sorts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film)

[kriesel]

The order from China to one of its doctors to "stop spreading rumors' of a virus problem, 3 January 2020. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E...B%E4%B9%A6.png

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by xilman

AFAICT, the closest historical parallel is with Spanish flu, another coronavirus pandemic, which killed more people than the first world war. The over-developed world can afford intensive care units but does not yet have a usable vaccine for their own use, let alone those other countries.

No, flu viruses are entirely distinct from Coronaviruses, and 1918 Spanish Flu is Influenza Type A:

Influenzavirus A

This genus has one species, influenza A virus. Wild aquatic birds are the natural hosts for a large variety of influenza A. Occasionally, viruses are transmitted to other species and may then cause devastating outbreaks in domestic poultry or give rise to human influenza pandemics. The influenza A virus can be subdivided into different serotypes based on the antibody response to these viruses. The serotypes that have been confirmed in humans are:

H1N1, which caused Spanish flu in 1918, and Swine Flu in 2009
H2N2, which caused Asian Flu in 1957
H3N2, which caused Hong Kong Flu in 1968
H5N1, which caused Bird Flu in 2004
H7N7, which has unusual zoonotic potential
H1N2, endemic in humans, pigs and birds
H9N2
H7N2
H7N3
H10N7
H7N9, rated in 2018 as having the greatest pandemic potential among the Type A subtypes
H6N1, which only infected one person, who recovered

But yes, the last time the world faced a pandemic of comparable virulence and lethality was 1918. Back in my grad school days I had, for several years, a subcription to Scientific American's Library of Science, which published a monthly book on some particular topic. Let it lapse after a few years because I couldn't keep up and there were relatively few really memorable volumes, but one of my favorites among those I kept is Viruses, by Arnold Levine. He has an entire chapter dedicated to Type A influenza, whose frontispiece is a last sketch by artist Egon Schiele, of his dying wife Edith in her sickbed. Schiele himself succumbed to the Spanish flu a few days later. (BTW, those LOS books can be gotten cheap at many used bookstores and e.g. eBay).

[ewmayer]

News you can use:

Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus [Updated 3/12] | Ars Technica

This bit struck me as especially notable:

Should I go to a doctor if I think I have COVID-19?

If you believe you have COVID-19, the CDC advises you should call your healthcare provider—do not make an unannounced office visit. Your healthcare provider, with the help of your state’s health department and the CDC, can determine if you should come in and get tested. Obvious reasons to test include the presence of COVID-19-like symptoms, having had contact with someone known to be infected, living in a place where transmission is occurring, or if you have recently traveled to a place where transmission is occurring.

[R.D. Silverman]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

No, flu viruses are entirely distinct from Coronaviruses, and 1918 Spanish Flu is Influenza Type A:

But yes, the last time the world faced a pandemic of comparable virulence and lethality was 1918..

??

Has everyone forgotten about....... Polio???

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by R.D. Silverman

Has everyone forgotten about....... Polio???

That was scary, to be sure, but mortality/morbidity an order of magnitude less - per Wikipedia the dreaded "Paralytic poliomyelitis" outcome occurs in 0.1–0.5% of cases (5-10% of which prove fatal), whereas Covid-19 appears to have a *death* rate of over 2%, with a serious-case rate ~20%.

Like Spanish Flu, though, polio was especially scary in that it struck down many people in the prime of health and youth.

[Spherical Cow]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

No, flu viruses are entirely distinct from Coronaviruses, and 1918 Spanish Flu is Influenza Type A:

But yes, the last time the world faced a pandemic of comparable virulence and lethality was 1918. Back in my grad school days I had, for several years, a subcription to Scientific American's Library of Science, which published a monthly book on some particular topic. Let it lapse after a few years because I couldn't keep up and there were relatively few really memorable volumes, but one of my favorites among those I kept is Viruses, by Arnold Levine. He has an entire chapter dedicated to Type A influenza, whose frontispiece is a last sketch by artist Egon Schiele, of his dying wife Edith in her sickbed. Schiele himself succumbed to the Spanish flu a few days later. (BTW, those LOS books can be gotten cheap at many used bookstores and e.g. eBay).

I also subscribed and ended up with numerous shelves of those books. Kept my favorites, but 90% of what I had have now made their way to the used book store. I had one with me for airplane-reading on a trip to China in the late 80s about the history of subatomic particles. The interpreter assigned to me turned out to be a physicist who had worked on China's atomic bomb project. As an intellectual, though, he had later been "purged" during the Cultural Revolution, sent to a work farm, and then worked as an interpreter ever since because he was fluent in English. Incredible waste of knowledge. I gave him the Sci. Am. book as a Thank-you parting gift, even though he was way beyond the level of that book, of course. Very impressive guy.

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by Spherical Cow

I also subscribed and ended up with numerous shelves of those books. Kept my favorites, but 90% of what I had have now made their way to the used book store. I had one with me for airplane-reading on a trip to China in the late 80s about the history of subatomic particles. The interpreter assigned to me turned out to be a physicist who had worked on China's atomic bomb project. As an intellectual, though, he had later been "purged" during the Cultural Revolution, sent to a work farm, and then worked as an interpreter ever since because he was fluent in English. Incredible waste of knowledge. I gave him the Sci. Am. book as a Thank-you parting gift, even though he was way beyond the level of that book, of course. Very impressive guy.

Nice - those books are well-made and lavishly illustrated, and thus make fine gifts. I believe I have the one you mention ... by Steven Weinberg, yes? BTW, I found the one on viruses on Amazon.com, both from AMZN and several resellers. I expect one could easily find multiple eBay sellers or used bookstores where one could buy a collection of multiple volumes - perfect for the household with science-interested kids aged 10-17, say.