Predict M52

[Uncwilly]

This is the list of currently active guesses (those stricken through were previous guesses that have been replaced under the rules). A number of them we have tested all of the exponents to that number, some we have passed the predicted date. All except one have either had a factor found, or a FTC completed (so they can't be the next known MP, but still close to it).

Who	When guessed	Exponent	When found
MattcAnderson	9/11/2019	84000013	4/1/2020
Uncwilly	12/28/2018	84000017	2/28/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	85020577	1/1/2020
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	85615531	10/1/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	87522767	1/3/2021
Petrw1  	12/12/2018	87654361	12/25/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	87668491	3/14/2019
moebius  	12/14/2018	87885437	
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	87946949	
kriesel  	12/21/2018	88318673	6/14/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	89065523	3/14/2020
Uncwilly	12/29/2018	89999999	4/15/2020
firejuggler	1/2/2019	90098611	2/1/2022
Viliam Furik	12/3/2019	91305491	1/18/2020
patrik  	12/18/2018	91502209	12/4/2020
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	91761547	3/14/2021
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	92074531	
christian_	12/27/2018	93456799	4/7/2019
axn     	12/21/2018	94029857	3/17/2021
sweety439	8/30/2019	94539113*	5/9/2021	*factored
Uncwilly	12/30/2018	95000167	9/24/2021
EWMayer  	12/12/2018	96000193	5/1/2021
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	96052357*	5/21/2021	*factored
Dylan14  	12/14/2018	97200647	2/2/2021
Spherical Cow	12/27/2018	97211981	10/30/2019
dcheuk  	3/10/2020	98350193	6/1/2020
Uncwilly	2/11/2020	99998441	7/31/2020	<-- FTC's completed below this
Uncwilly	7/24/2020	100002751	10/6/2020
lukerichards			101834393*	8/1/2020	*factored
tuckerkao	11/24/2020	103305173	
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	103347613	
christian_	12/27/2018	106456799	1/22/2020
axn    	 	12/21/2018	107054317	8/31/2023
Prime95 	12/16/2018	107448181	6/1/2022
Spherical Cow	2/11/2020	107448791*	2/9/2021	*factored
Batalov   	12/12/2018	110691517	6/19/2022
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	110691683	1/3/2025
dannyridel	7/26/2020	111906173	1/2/2021
masser  	8/3/2019	115856161	7/4/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	117003179	11/24/2022
masser  	12/12/2018	118788157	8/8/2020
ixfd64  	12/27/2018	121596589	10/8/2027
kriesel  	12/21/2018	121882753	5/21/2025
axn	        12/21/2018	121882903	7/12/2026
Petrw1  	10/13/2020	123456841	4/3/2021
christian_	12/27/2018	146456881	2/3/2022
masser  	10/13/2020	149929849	9/2/2024
Ensigm  	10/13/2020	150714349	12/11/2024
Brian-E  	12/21/2018	258150181	5/15/2027
GP2     	1/4/2019	282362693	3/3/2025
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	310347613	
dcheuk  	9/1/2019	333898333	11/1/2019
kriesel  	12/21/2018	402143633*	3/12/2052	*factored
moebius  	12/14/2018			1/13/2020
tServo  	12/14/2018			12/31/2019

The attached graphic shows: the guesses as the blue diamonds, current status as the red dot, blue lines are the rough bounds of the guesses, the green box encompassed about 1/2 of the early guesses, the black line is a trend line for the guesses, the green line takes the guesses of lowest exponent matched to earliest date - highest exponent matched to latest date, the green dotted line is the trend for that.

[ZFR]

Let me try

M102685711
M102685769
M103037743

Date 4th February 2021 for all

EDIT: Sorry, not sure if we're supposed to put all 3 guesses immediately, or wait 60 days between each.

[Uncwilly]

You can have 3 active guesses. If one of your guesses expires you have to wait the 60 days to replace it. https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...37&postcount=1
Each guess can have a different date. And if your are running the PRP or LL on these exponents rule 8 applies.

[ZFR]

OK, those will be my guesses then.

[tuckerkao]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

You can have 3 active guesses. If one of your guesses expires you have to wait the 60 days to replace it. https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...37&postcount=1
Each guess can have a different date. And if your are running the PRP or LL on these exponents rule 8 applies.

It was a surprise that no factors were found during the entire trial factoring process, I didn't understand what this was back the time when I guessed.
https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1

So 60 days from the time I guessed (10/14/2020) or 60 days from the time Kriesel finished the PRP testing (11/13/2020)?

[sweety439]

M13029749

(13029749 is 4444445 is dozenal)

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by sweety439

M13029749

(13029749 is 4444445 is dozenal)

There is a known 42 bit factor for M13,029,749, with trivially small P-1 bounds sufficient, or very brief TF. https://www.mersenne.ca/exponent/13029749
Oliver Kruse's PRP run in progress is a waste of time. https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1
It's also much too small an exponent for Mp52*, since everything up to nearly 10⁸ has already been tested at least once, and to nearly 54M twice, while the guess is only ~13M, and Mp51* has exponent 82,589,933. Mp52*'s exponent must exceed ~54M and probably 100M.

(Maybe 13029749 was a pre-coffee guess?)

[kruoli]

Originally Posted by kriesel

Oliver Kruse's PRP run in progress is a waste of time. https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1

No, it's a PRP-CF run. Prime95 shows the "known factors" bit in the status window.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by sweety439

M13029749

Because you guessed a number with a known factor you have the 60 day waiting period imposed. (See rule 4).

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by tuckerkao

So 60 days from the time I guessed (10/14/2020) or 60 days from the time Kriesel finished the PRP testing (11/13/2020)?

If a factor is found of the exponent that you guessed, or if someone does a primality test, that does not invalidate your guess. Only when the date has passed or when the FTC milestone passes the exponent. (See rule 6).

[masser]

Originally Posted by kriesel

(Maybe 13029749 was a pre-coffee guess?)

Add a digit somewhere after the 3 and a reasonable date. Then it will make a nice entry on uncwilly's graph.