Predict "M51" - Page 4

VictordeHolland · 2018-01-12, 20:34

So far

If people only took a month and no specific date, i've insterted the 15th as a date for sorting my table.

Sorted by exponent

Code:

      exponent   date   Username (guess#)   
      79300037   11-jul-2019   Uncwilly (1)   
      83018113   9-jun-2018   moebius   
      85021099   15-dec-2019   firejuggler   
      85697377   4-apr-2019   pacionet   
      85833733   15-nov-2018   axn (1)   
      88926239   11-dec-2020   CRGreathouse (1)   
      92018681   10-mei-2020   Lavalamp   
      92304749   15-apr-2021   ixfd64   
      93939421   16-dec-2021   VictordeHolland   
      94000013   20-feb-2020   Uncwilly (2)   
      98760853   20-apr-2020   axn (2)   
      99116189   28-nov-2019   ATH   
      99998543   15-jun-2020   Damian   
      99999703   3-apr-2023   petrw1
      105209879   18-mrt-2024   CRGreathouse (2)   
      110691517   19-jun-2022   Batalov   
      113977249   15-jun-2022   Marc Rose (1)   factored
      115218151   1-jul-2022   axn (3)   
      118788157   8-aug-2020   masser   
      138566717   7-jul-2026   CRGreathouse (3)   
      158345273   15-feb-2028   Prime95   
      199000003   20-feb-2020   davar55 (1)    date taken
      258150181   15-aug-2027   Brian-E   
      282362693   3-mrt-2025   GP2   
      344587487   15-jul-2025   M344587487

Sorted by date:

Code:

            date   exponent   Username (guess#)   
      2018-jun-09   83018113   moebius   
      2018-nov-15   85833733   axn (1)   
      2019-apr-04   85697377   pacionet   
      2019-jul-11   79300037   Uncwilly (1)   
      2019-nov-28   99116189   ATH   
      2019-dec-15   85021099   firejuggler   
      2020-feb-20   94000013   Uncwilly (2)   
      2020-feb-20   199000003   davar55 (1)    date taken
      2020-apr-20   98760853   axn (2)   
      2020-mei-10   92018681   Lavalamp   
      2020-jun-15   99998543   Damian   
      2020-aug-08   118788157   masser   
      2020-dec-11   88926239   CRGreathouse (1)   
      2021-apr-15   92304749   ixfd64   
      2021-dec-16   93939421   VictordeHolland   
      2022-jun-15   113977249   Marc Rose (1)    factored
      2022-jun-19   110691517   Batalov   
      2022-jul-01   115218151   axn (3)   
      2023-apr-03   99999703   petrw1   
      2024-mrt-18   105209879   CRGreathouse (2)   
      2025-mrt-03   282362693   GP2   
      2025-jul-15   344587487   M344587487   
      2026-jul-07   138566717   CRGreathouse (3)   
      2027-aug-15   258150181   Brian-E   
      2028-feb-15   158345273   Prime95

Uncwilly · 2018-01-12, 21:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by VictordeHolland

So far

If people only took a month and no specific date, i've insterted the 15th as a date for sorting my table.

I take the date as the first of the month usually. davar55's exponent also has a factor (2 strikes against him/her).

masser · 2018-01-12, 21:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

I take the date as the first of the month usually. davar55's exponent also has a factor (2 strikes against him/her).

It's not difficult to find the factoring status of Mp candidates. Providing a link for the unaware:

https://www.mersenne.org/report_exponent/

bgbeuning · 2018-01-13, 02:39

My guess is p=80,322,241 on Jan 10, 2019

My reasoning is the last two primes had a ratio of 1.040 and
even though that is a historically low ratio, I am an optimist.

Uncwilly · 2018-01-13, 08:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by masser

It's not difficult to find the factoring status of Mp candidates. Providing a link for the unaware:

I have did not link to that or Mersenne.ca, so that newbie might find it for themselves.

Here is a plot of all of the guesses (even the ones with a factor). The ones above 150,000,000 skew the curve.

GP2 · 2018-01-14, 02:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

My first 2 guesses are:
79,300,037 on Jul 11, 2019
94,000,013 on Feb 20, 2020

The first of these already has one LL test. Is that the exponent you intended?

Uncwilly · 2018-01-14, 04:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP2

The first of these already has one LL test. Is that the exponent you intended?

Yes, it is the first available exponent above the magic 79.3M traditional max.

lavalamp · 2018-01-27, 17:32

I have now trial factored my chosen exponent, 92018681, to 80 bits. The only other exponent to be trial factored this far is 158345273. Since mine is smaller, it is therefore more likely to be prime, by nearly a factor of 2!

Additionally the date I chose for mine is in 2020 (a mere 2 years away), where the date chosen for 158345273 is in 2028 (an entire decade!).

Therefore I am clearly ahead by both metrics and would now like to declare myself the winner.

I trust no-one has any issues with these TRUE FACTS I have presented here today.

Uncwilly · 2018-01-28, 03:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by lavalamp

I have now trial factored my chosen exponent, 92018681, to 80 bits. The only other exponent to be trial factored this far is 158345273

ORLY?
https://www.mersenne.org/report_fact...=1&tftobits=72

lavalamp · 2018-01-28, 06:01

*Only exponent in the list of guesses.

Note that these are all larger exponents though. My argument still stands.

GP2 · 2018-05-10, 00:42

Code:

2018-jun-09   83018113   moebius

The would-be future M51 won't discover itself, exactly one month from now. Will anyone tackle this non-self-fulfilling prophecy?

2018-01-27, 17:32	#41
lavalamp Oct 2007 Manchester, UK 2513₈ Posts	I have now trial factored my chosen exponent, 92018681, to 80 bits. The only other exponent to be trial factored this far is 158345273. Since mine is smaller, it is therefore more likely to be prime, by nearly a factor of 2! Additionally the date I chose for mine is in 2020 (a mere 2 years away), where the date chosen for 158345273 is in 2028 (an entire decade!). Therefore I am clearly ahead by both metrics and would now like to declare myself the winner. I trust no-one has any issues with these TRUE FACTS I have presented here today. Last fiddled with by lavalamp on 2018-01-27 at 17:34

2018-05-10, 00:42	#44
GP2 Sep 2003 5·11·47 Posts	Code: 2018-jun-09 83018113 moebius The would-be future M51 won't discover itself, exactly one month from now. Will anyone tackle this non-self-fulfilling prophecy?

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2018-01-13, 02:39	#37
bgbeuning Dec 2014 377₈ Posts	My guess is p=80,322,241 on Jan 10, 2019 My reasoning is the last two primes had a ratio of 1.040 and even though that is a historically low ratio, I am an optimist.

2018-01-28, 06:01	#43
lavalamp Oct 2007 Manchester, UK 54B₁₆ Posts	*Only exponent in the list of guesses. Note that these are all larger exponents though. My argument still stands.