Move 14 discussion: Everyone vs stockfish

[Brian-E]

The line I would expect after 14.f3 is 14...Qb6+ 15.Qd4 Qxd4+ 16.Nxd4 Nc5 17.Bg5 Ncd7. I think that both this line, and lines following 14.Be3, leave White with the very slightest of advantages. And both are drawish.

I'm holding off my vote until I've seen more discussion. I can't currently choose between 14.Be3 and 14.f3.

[LaurV]

Indeed, if 14. f3 Nd6 15. Bg5 Nc4, then Nc4 seems not exactly the strongest move here. Qd4 reply is extremely strong (!) on both attach and defense. I am still looking into this line, and I think i like it a lot, it seems like black can do nothing much. However, what I had in mind, more or less, with f3, was to go for the "forced" line again, like (instead of Qd4) 16. Bxf6 first, gxf6 (forced, otherwise we save the bishop and/or end up with big wood advantage) - the pawn structure is "terminated" and the black king is uncovered, then 17. Qd4 - defends both and attach the pawn. Here the best way for black to defend the pawn is 17...Qb6, because moving the rock still can end up for us, after either Re1, or attach with the horse (if Re6, for example). In this case 18. QxQ, axb6 (!) - (because if Nxb6, 19. Nd4/Rfe1/Rae1, he has overlapped pawns and one insulated blocked pawn, no bishops, we may WIN this game strategically). So, after axb6, 19 Rfd1, look to this board! Black has 2x2 overlapped pawns, separate pawn in the middle, and he can't beat b2, because after Bxb2, Rxd5, he can't stop losing another pawn, b6 and f6 are so beautifully (miss)aligned... (so, probably 19..Re5 20. f4 will be what we play, still going strong towards the draw)...

The force approach is the best approach, hehe.

[Brian-E]

Originally Posted by LaurV

The force approach is the best approach, hehe.

It certainly is. But do please note that after 14.f3, 14...Nd6 is not forced.

[LaurV]

Originally Posted by Brian-E

The line I would expect after 14.f3 is 14...Qb6+ 15.Qd4 Qxd4+ 16.Nxd4 Nc5 17.Bg5 Ncd7

I didn't look deeper into that but the position seems a stall for black, we block 3 of his pieces with only the bishop. If 18. Rfe1, he would need some more support, ...Rae8, 19 Kf2, we block 4 of his pieces with 2 of ours... If Rxe1, Rxe1, h6 (maybe?) BxN, NxN (not clear), well, it doesn't look bad for us either.

I voted for f3.

[Brian-E]

Originally Posted by LaurV

I didn't look deeper into that but the position seems a stall for black, we block 3 of his pieces with only the bishop. If 18. Rfe1, he would need some more support, ...Rae8, 19 Kf2, we block 4 of his pieces with 2 of ours... If Rxe1, Rxe1, h6 (maybe?) BxN, NxN (not clear), well, it doesn't look bad for us either.

I voted for f3.

Certainly not bad for us, indeed. I think it may be our best chance of a draw. Given our threat of Bc1-g5xf6 leaving Black with a terrible pawn structure, as you originally proposed and Gary further analysed, I think we could say that Black is forced to go for this line. If that is true, I will vote for 14.f3 as well.

[MooMoo2]

Due to the difficulty of this move, I've added an additional 24 hours to the poll closing time.

It's too late for me to change the poll closing date, but I'll still count moves made 24 hours after the poll closes if you post your choice at: http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=20806

Those of you who have already voted may change your mind by posting there as long as you post before the revised poll closing time, which is January 5, 2016 at 2:26 AM (GMT).

[MooMoo2]

Originally Posted by gd_barnes

I also like Be3 here keeping the queen off the big diagonal.

There is virtually zero chance that this game continues like the aforementioned game for even another 3-4 moves. It is up to MooMoo how long he allows SF to think. All that he has to do is vary the amount of time that he gives it to think to completely change the complexion of the game. He could let it think for up to a day or for just 1-2 minutes. Also, I do not like white's next move 15. Bd4 in that game. Moving the bishop twice in a row is a loss of tempo. I would vote against it.

You're right. In case anyone's curious, Stockfish would not have played the same move as the Nakamura game (14...Rc8) if Be3 was chosen as the most popular vote. I'll post the full analysis once the game ends.

[MooMoo2]

Originally Posted by Brian-E

Is Stockfish experiencing déjà vu? This game from 2014 might suggest so:

Grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura was allowed the help of the program Rybka to achieve this draw against Stockfish, and we aren't allowed that luxury. But still, I think it's encouraging to see this already played game which starts with the same 13 moves for both sides, the same software playing Black, and a drawn result.

Nakamura (using Rybka for help) - Stockfish, Match, 2014

1. e4 e6 2. d4 d5 3. Nd2 c5 4. Ngf3 Nf6 5. ed5 ed5 6. Bb5 Bd7 7. Bd7 Nbd7 8. O-O Be7 9. dc5 Nc5 10. Nb3 Nce4
11. Nfd4 O-O 12. Nf5 Re8 13. Ne7 Re7 14. Be3 Rc8 15. Bd4 Nd7 16. Re1 b6 17. f3 Nec5 18. Re7 Qe7 19. Qd2 Nb3 20. ab3 Nc5
21. Bf2 Ne6 22. c3 Rd8 23. b4 h6 24. Qe2 Rd7 25. Rd1 Qg5 26. g3 Qf5 27. Kg2 h5 28. Qd3 Qd3 29. Rd3 g5 30. Kf1 f5
31. c4 Kf7 32. c5 d4 33. c6 Rd6 34. b5 Ke8 35. Ra3 Nc7 36. Ra7 Nb5 37. Ra8 Ke7 38. Rc8 d3 39. Ke1 Re6 40. Kd1 Re2
41. Bb6 Rb2 42. Bd8 Kd6 43. Bg5 Rh2 44. Bf4 Kc5 45. Ke1 h4 46. gh4 Rh4 47. Be3 Kd5 48. c7 Kc6 49. Rf8 Nc7 50. Kd2 f4
51. Rf4 Rf4 52. Bf4 Ne6 53. Be3 Kd5 54. Kd3 Ke5 55. f4 Kf5 56. Bd2 1/2-1/2

Nakamura played 14.Be3 here. That's my choice too at first glance. It's the most natural square to develop our bishop, I think, protecting the a7-g1 diagonal to prepare a later f2-f3 without allowing ...Qb6+, and strengthening our d4 square.

Originally Posted by gd_barnes

I also like Be3 here keeping the queen off the big diagonal.

There is virtually zero chance that this game continues like the aforementioned game for even another 3-4 moves. It is up to MooMoo how long he allows SF to think. All that he has to do is vary the amount of time that he gives it to think to completely change the complexion of the game. He could let it think for up to a day or for just 1-2 minutes. Also, I do not like white's next move 15. Bd4 in that game. Moving the bishop twice in a row is a loss of tempo. I would vote against it.

Brian, I feel you are way too pessimistic about our chances. I feel that we have a 30-35% chance of a draw from this position.

Originally Posted by MooMoo2

You're right. In case anyone's curious, Stockfish would not have played the same move as the Nakamura game (14...Rc8) if Be3 was chosen as the most popular vote. I'll post the full analysis once the game ends.

In case anyone's curious, Stockfish would have responded with 14...Qc7 if Be3 was chosen.

edit: The evaluations for Be3 (-0.30) and f3 (-0.27) are almost identical.