Move 41

[paulunderwood]

We can put the pressure on a4 with

41.Kg2 Nc5
42.Bd1 Kf7
43.Rc6 Ne4

:smile:

[Brian-E]

41...Nc5 is a direct threat forcing them to protect their a pawn, yes.
An alternative is the less committal 41...Ke7. Or alternatively 41...Kf7 42.Bh5 Ke7. The point here is that our knight might be better playing to d4 later instead of via c5 to e4. This keeps the king away from the centre in conjunction with the well placed bishop on d2. And with the king on e7 we prevent their rook moving to d6.
Not, I think, immediately 41...Nd4 because of 42.Rd6 Be3 43.Rd5 threatening Re5+ and so winning the a pawn.

[paulunderwood]

Yes that is a good strategy: we would control e1, e2, e3 and f3 :smile:

[Brian-E]

[QUOTE=paulunderwood;380310]Yes that is a good strategy: we would control e1, e2, e3 and f3 :smile:[/QUOTE]
Yes, though of course they can pre-empt this plan by playing Kf3 before we play ...Nd4. Also the set-up with knight on d4 and bishop on d2 is not a stable one, the pieces being vulnerable to attack by the white rook.

This is now a genuine endgame and I think a general endgame plan is more important than exact moves at the moment. The only plan I can see though is to "hang on and wait". Our king needs to stay within reach of the kingside because that is where they will eventually get a passed pawn. We will hope to blockade this passed kingside pawn with our three pieces whilst keeping our a pawn firmly protected. The opposite coloured bishops give us reasonable hope to set up such a blockade.

What does everyone else think about our endgame plan?

[richs]

Here are my thought on what they might do with Kf7: 41 ... Kf7 42 Rd6 Bg5 which follows Brian's endgame strategy.

With Ke7: 41 ... Ke7 42 Re6+ Kf8 which also follows Brian's endgame strategy.

I am unsure which of the above is better for us.

I am in agreement with Brian's endgame strategy.

[Brian-E]

[QUOTE=richs;380439]Here are my thought on what they might do with Kf7: 41 ... Kf7 42 Rd6 Bg5 which follows Brian's endgame strategy.

With Ke7: 41 ... Ke7 42 Re6+ Kf8 which also follows Brian's endgame strategy.

I am unsure which of the above is better for us.

I am in agreement with Brian's endgame strategy.[/QUOTE]
Those are both possible lines, yes.

Maybe a good plan for the immediate term is to try to bring the king to the defence of the h pawn, freeing our bishop from this task. Maybe 41...Kf8 is also good, with the point that we don't have to watch for tactical tricks with a bishop check forking king and our loose knight. This bishop check doesn't work in Rich's first line because of 41...Kf7 42.Rd6 Bg5 43.Be6+ Ke7 but we may as well keep our king off the light squares for safety.

After 41...Kf8 42.Rb6 Nc5 prevents them hemming our king in with the rook on the 7th rank and after 43.Bd1 we have time to play 43...Kg7.

Any of the moves 41...Kf8, 41...Kf7, 41...Ke7, 41...Nc5 look playable and reasonable to me. The first one is my current slight preference.

[henryzz]

[QUOTE=Brian-E;380456]Those are both possible lines, yes.

Maybe a good plan for the immediate term is to try to bring the king to the defence of the h pawn, freeing our bishop from this task. Maybe 41...Kf8 is also good, with the point that we don't have to watch for tactical tricks with a bishop check forking king and our loose knight. This bishop check doesn't work in Rich's first line because of 41...Kf7 42.Rd6 Bg5 43.Be6+ Ke7 but we may as well keep our king off the light squares for safety.

After 41...Kf8 42.Rb6 Nc5 prevents them hemming our king in with the rook on the 7th rank and after 43.Bd1 we have time to play 43...Kg7.

Any of the moves 41...Kf8, 41...Kf7, 41...Ke7, 41...Nc5 look playable and reasonable to me. The first one is my current slight preference.[/QUOTE]
There is some very good analysis in this post.
I am not sure we have to worry about a bishop fork on the king or knight. He has to move his rook first out of reach of the king. That gives us a move in which to move either our knight or king.

I can't see how we can protect our h pawn with Nc5.
41...Nc5 42.Rd6 Bg5 43.h4 Bc1 44.Rc6 we might be able to get the white pawn on a4 in exchange for h6. They might be able to get a5 in another line though.
43...Be3 is another option but that gets very messy very quickly.

I see Rd6 as a probable next move for them unless we moved our bishop.

[Brian-E]

Yes, that's a bit depressing because in my opinion we really have to hold onto the h pawn to stand any chance. Giving up the h pawn for their a pawn is a clear loss, even if they then have to sacrifice their bishop for our a pawn. King+Rook+g pawn+h pawn will win easily against King+Bishop+Knight (and no pawns).

You are right about the general threat of Rd6. That combined with other attacks on our pieces with Bd1, Rb6/c6 seems to me to lead to either losing the h pawn or losing a piece. For example 41...Kf8 42.Rd6 Bc1 (42...Bg5 43.h4 doesn't help us) 43.Bd1 Nc5 44.Rc6 Nd3 45.Be2 Ne1+ 46.Kf2 Bd2 47.Rd6. 41...Ke7 42.Re6+ Kf7 43.Rd6 is similar. And 41...Nc5 leads to your example lines forcing us to drop our h pawn too.

Does anyone see any way for us to hold onto the h pawn? Or do people disagree with me that dropping our h pawn in exchange for their a pawn is hopeless for us?

[paulunderwood]

[QUOTE=henryzz;380478]
I see Rd6 as a probable next move for them unless we moved our bishop.[/QUOTE]

Perhaps we should play Ke7 :smile:

[Brian-E]

[QUOTE=paulunderwood;380481]Perhaps we should play Ke7 :smile:[/QUOTE]
Maybe this is the answer. I see now 41..Ke7 42.Re6+ Kf7 43.Rd6 Ke7 44.Rd7+ Ke8. Are we okay here?

[Brian-E]

Because David has said that he is away cycling from the 18th (still going ahead, David?), we possibly have some urgency now to reach an agreement for this move. And because David will then not be around for some time, and our opponents are moving instantly these days, it would help if we could possibly agree some coming strategy for the coming couple of moves too.

I currently like Paul's last suggestion of 41...Be7, also suggested by Rich, followed by harassing the white rook with our king if it comes to the d file. And I think holding onto our h pawn is crucial. What do other people think now?