White 29

[cheesehead]

Extending the analysis of [B](A) 29 Nd6+
[/B]
[B](A) 29 Nd6+

+ + +

[/B]If [B]29 ... Kd8 30 Rb1 Kc7 31 Ne8+[/B]

- - -

If [B]31 ... Kb6 32 Nxb3[/B]

If [B]32 ... Ka6 33 Nc5+ Ka7 34 Rxa8 Kxc8 36 Nxg7[/B] - we're two pieces up.

If [B]32 ... Ka7 33 Be3+ Ka6 34 Nc7++[/B] mate

- - -

If [B]31 ... Kd8 32 Nxg7[/B]

If [B]32 ... Nxc5 33 Rxb8[/B]
If [B]33 ... Nd7 34 Nxe6+ Ke8 35 Ra8[/B] - we're a rook-and-pawn up.
If [B]33 ... ????[/B]

If [B]32 ... e5 33 Rxb3[/B] - we're two pieces up.

If [B]32 ... ????[/B]

+ + +

If [B]29 ... Kf8 30 Rf1+

+ +
[/B]
If [B]30 ... Kg8 31 Rb1
[/B]
+ +

If [B]30 ... Nf5 31 Nxb3[/B]

- - -

If [B]31 ... Rxb3 32 Nxc8[/B]

If [B]32 ... K-moves 33 c4[/B] - we're up a bishop.

If [B]32 ... Bxc3 33 Bxc3 Rxc3 34 Nd6[/B] - we're up a bishop-for-a-pawn.

If [B]32 ... Ra3 33 Nb6[/B] - we're up a bishop.

- - -

If [B]31 ... Ba6 32 Nc5[/B] (not 32 Rb1 Nxd6)

- -

If [B]32 ... Bxf1 33 Nd7+[/B]

If [B]33 ... Ke7 34 Nxb8[/B]

If [B]34 ... Bxg2 35 Nxf5+[/B]
If [B]35 ... exf5 or gxf5 36 Kxg2[/B] and we're up a knight-for-a-pawn.
If [B]35 ... Ke7 36 Nxg7[/B] and we're up two pieces.

If [B]34 ... Kxd6 35 Bxf1 or Kxf1[/B] and we're a bishop up.

If [B]33 ... Kg8 34 Nxb8[/B]

If [B]34 ... Nxd6 35 Kxf1[/B] and we're a bishop up.

If [B]34 ... Bxg2 35 Nxf5[/B] and we're a piece up.

If [B]34 ... Bd3 35 Ne4[/B] and we're a knight up.

- -

If [B]32 ... Rd8 33 Nxe6+[/B]

-

If [B]33 ... Ke7 34 Nxd8 Bxf1 35 Nxf5+ Kxd8 36 Kxf1 gxf5 37 c4 and 38 Bxa5[/B] and we're a bishop and two pawns up.

-

If [B]33 ... Kg8 34 Nxd8 Bxf1 35 Nxf5[/B]
If [B]35 ... gxf5 36 Kxf1[/B] and we're up two pieces and a pawn.
If [B]35 ... Bxg2 36 Kxg2 gxf5 37 Nc6 and 38 Nxa5[/B] and we're a knight and two pawns up.

= = = =

Now I need to rest, then go through and highlight which are the best Black moves (i.e., where we've not yet found how we force a winning advantage), then look for a win for us at those points.

(Note: You've probably noticed that 29 Rb1 and 29 Nd6+ are not interchangeable. After 29 Nd6+ Black has only two possible king moves, but after 29 Rb1 Nxc5 30 Nd6+ Black can choose 30 ... Kd7 instead of Kd8 or Kf8.)

[cheesehead]

Okay, now I'm rested and see more clearly now. We must start with

[b]29 Rd6+[/b]. Starting with 29 Rb1 would allow Black more freedom in some lines. Black's only two legal responses are: 29 ... Kd8 and 29 ... Kf8. Our move 30 will be the same in either case, but followups eventually differ.

If [b]29 ... Kf8 30 Rb1[/b]
If [b]30 ... Bxc3 31 Bxc3[/b]
If [b]30 ... Nf5 31 Nxf5[/b]
If [b]30 ... Bb7 31 Rxb3[/b]
If [b]30 ... [/b]

If [b]29 ... Kd8 30 Rb1[/b]
If [b]30 ... Bxc3 31 Bxc3[/b]
If [b]30 ... Nf5 31 Nxf5[/b]
If [b]30 ... Bb7 31 Rxb3[/b]
If [b]30 ... [/b]

If [b]30 ... Kc7 31 Ne8+[/b]
If [b]31 ... Kb6 32 Rxb3+[/b]
If [b]32 ... Kxc5 33 Rxf8[/b] - we're a rook up and will stay that way or better.
If [b]32 ... Ka7 33 Rxb8 Kxb8 34 Nxg7[/b] - we're two pieces up and will stay that way or better.
If [b]31 ... Kd8 32 Nxg7[/b] - we're a bishop up and will gain at least an Exchange soon, to be a rook up or better.

(to be continued)

[cheesehead]

There's stuff I gotta do (in Real Life) before continuing the analysis from my last post, but I want to get this idea out to you:

- - -

Since there are only two legal responses to 29 Nd6+, I propose that our post of that move also include if-moves for both responses, like this:

29 Nd6+
If 29 ... Kd8, then 30 Rb1
If 29 ... Kf8, then 30 Rb1

- - -

(I don't see any point in waiting to show them why we think they should've played 28 ... Ndc6 or 28 ... Ndf5 instead of making us dig out our old analysis for ... Nb3. :)

[WMHalsdorf]

I also this would be one of times for a conditional move reply.

[cheesehead]

[B]29 Rd6+[/B]

If [B]29 ... Kf8 30 Rb1[/B]
If [B]29 ... Kd8 30 Rb1[/B]

(The following are the same for either king position (Kd8 or Kf8)

If [B]30 ... Bxc3 31 Bxc3 Nxc5 32 Rxb8 [/B]- we're up a rook for a pawn

+ +

If [B]30 ... Bb7 31 Rxb3[/B] - we're a knight up and threatening to win more

+ +

If [B]30 ... Nxd2 31 Rxb8[/B] - we're up an Exchange

+ +

If [B]30 ... Nxc5 31 Rxb8[/B] - we're up an Exchange

+ +

If [B]30 ... Rb6 31 Nxc8 Nxc8 32 Rxb3[/B] - we're a bishop up

+ +

If [B]30 ... Nf5 31 Nxf5[/B] - we still threaten to win a knight or Exchange on the b-file
* * *

If [B]29 ... Kf8 30 Rb1[/B]

(The following are only for after Kf8)

If [B]30 ... ????[/B]

* * *

If [B]29 ... Kd8 30 Rb1[/B]

(The following are only for after Kd8)

If [B]30 ... Kc7 31 Ne8+[/B]

If [B]31 ... Kb6 32 Rxb3+[/B]
If [B]32 ... Kxc5 33 Rxf8[/B] - we're a rook up and will stay that way or better.
If [B]32 ... Ka7 33 Rxb8 Kxb8 34 Nxg7[/B] - we're two pieces up and will stay that way or better.

-

If [B]31 ... Kd8 32 Nxg7[/B] - we're a bishop up and will gain at least an Exchange soon, to be a rook up or better.

+ +

If [B]30 ...????

[/B]

[cheesehead]

Oops. That wasn't my final version for the previous post.

- - -

Here's just a reorganization to set out alternatives in a different format than I've used before. It isn't intended to, and doesn't, incorporate all the deepest analysis from earlier; it's intended to help me prevent overlooking significant Black replies.

[B]29 Rd6+[/B]

If [B]29 ... Kf8 30 Rb1[/B]
If [B]29 ... Kd8 30 Rb1[/B]

(The following are the same for either king position (Kd8 or Kf8)

If [B]30 ... Bxc3 31 Bxc3 Nxc5 32 Rxb8 [/B]- we're up a rook for a pawn

+ +

If [B]30 ... Bb7 31 Rxb3[/B] - we're a knight up and threatening to win more

+ +

If [B]30 ... Nxd2 31 Rxb8[/B] - we're up an Exchange

+ +

If [B]30 ... Nxc5 31 Rxb8[/B] - we're up an Exchange

+ +

If [B]30 ... Rb6 31 Nxc8 Nxc8 32 Rxb3[/B] - we're a bishop up

+ +

If [B]30 ... Nf5 31 Nxf5[/B] - we still threaten to win a knight or Exchange on the b-file

* * *

If [B]29 ... Kf8 30 Rb1[/B]

(The following are only for after Kf8)

If [B]30 ... ????[/B]

* * *

If [B]29 ... Kd8 30 Rb1[/B]

(The following are only for after Kd8)

If [B]30 ... Kc7 31 Ne8+[/B]

If [B]31 ... Kb6 32 Rxb3+[/B]
If [B]32 ... Kxc5 33 Rxf8[/B] - we're a rook up and will stay that way or better.
If [B]32 ... Ka7 33 Rxb8 Kxb8 34 Nxg7[/B] - we're two pieces up and will stay that way or better.

-

If [B]31 ... Kd8 32 Nxg7[/B] - we're a bishop up and will gain at least an Exchange soon, to be a rook up or better.

+ +

If [B]30 ...????

------------------

Vote:
[/B]
29 Nd6+
If 29 ... Kd8, then 30 Rb1
If 29 ... Kf8, then 30 Rb1 - 5

29 Nd6+
(without if-moves) - 4

[LaurV]

I am at job, and ready to go to lunch, no time for any analyze today. Maybe tonight. Just two things:

1. You keep saying Rd6+ instead of Nd6+ for a while. I have seen it a while ago, but ignored as a typo. It happens to me sometimes too. Then it was propagated by copy/paste.

2. There was a discussion about conditional moves. The other team (Brian, etc, see his posts related to the other game) thinks that conditional moves are not polite (and I fully agree with them). Even if the next move is forced, only one possible move, you don't play "conditional moves". First, you don't insult your opponent intelligence, by playing for him. If there is an easy or forced move, for sure they are intelligent enough to find the move. Second, you don't try to rob your opponent off of his time, if there is a single possibility to move, well, he still has his 7 days to think about, to make the move, to resign, to propose draw, etc. Maybe he is counting on this 7 days to think the following paths [U]after[/U] the forced sequence ends.

So, I would say "no" for the "conditional" part. At least, if you insist, we can ask them if they agree with conditional play. Or maybe not, and just play our move.

Related to "changing from Rb1 to Nd6+", well, I am tempted to trust you with this. I don't believe that any of these moves is better then the other, each has small advantages and disadvantages when comparing them, and both are better than other moves we can do.

Just let me reach home tonight and I may be able to follow through all your analysis and give my vote. Don't get me wrong, if we are going to win this game (which we do!), this is first of all because of you! And I mean it!

[LaurV]

[QUOTE=cheesehead;374116]Our deadline: <snip>
= Friday, May 30 19:22 Thai time
[/QUOTE]
Here we might have a problem. I just came back from lunch especially to check this. Your side of the pool is night, my side of the pool I work, I don't think I can make it on time to take shower, eat, analyze the position, post the move... I live the office at 5:30 [U]soonest[/U] possible, and drive at least half hour till home... Therefore I will post the move right now, going 100% on your hand on this move. :smile:

(well, not really, as I said, they are somehow the same, both of them, but at the second though, if we play the horse first, they still might pick the wrong side with the king, and after Kf8, we have a nice win - now I am the one insulting their intelligence... hehe)

So, say, may vote:
29 Nd6+ - 5 points
29 Rb1 - 4 points

And with this, I play the move, and get rid of the responsibility :razz:

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=LaurV;374558]1. You keep saying Rd6+ instead of Nd6+ for a while. I have seen it a while ago, but ignored as a typo. It happens to me sometimes too. Then it was propagated by copy/paste.[/QUOTE]That's exactly what happened: typo, then copy/paste.

[quote]The other team (Brian, etc, see his posts related to the other game) thinks that conditional moves are not polite (and I fully agree with them).[/quote]I'd forgotten that. Thank you for remembering.

[quote]Second, you don't try to rob your opponent off of his time, if there is a single possibility to move, well, he still has his 7 days to think about, to make the move, to resign, to propose draw, etc. Maybe he is counting on this 7 days to think the following paths [U]after[/U] the forced sequence ends.[/quote]Again, thank you for this reminder.

[quote]So, I would say "no" for the "conditional" part. At least, if you insist, we can ask them if they agree with conditional play. Or maybe not, and just play our move.[/quote]Since I agree with both the issues you've brought up, I withdraw my suggestion for if-moves.

[I]I'm glad you posted just our move 29 in this case.[/I]

[quote]Related to "changing from Rb1 to Nd6+", well, I am tempted to trust you with this. I don't believe that any of these moves is better then the other, each has small advantages and disadvantages when comparing them, and both are better than other moves we can do.[/quote]Yes, the advantage I see is indeed [I]small[/I] -- just a matter of whether or not Black can respond Kd7 to Nd6+ (after 29 Rb1 Nxc5 30 Rxb8. But since I didn't see any better reason to choose, restricting Black's choices by one did have a small value.

[quote]Just let me reach home tonight and I may be able to follow through all your analysis and give my vote. Don't get me wrong, if we are going to win this game (which we do!), this is first of all because of you! And I mean it![/quote]Thank you , but we've [U]each[/U] contributed crucial moves.

While I was actively playing in tournaments, I got to a point where I stopped improving, and got into a rut of losing/drawing because of the same few reasons over and over and my rating just wobbled around the same range 1550-1650 for years (still 1642 now). One flaw was that I didn't make enough well-supported pawn pushes.

I never systematically analyzed all my losses at that point to discover what I should've studied next. But I still could do that now, because I have saved all my tournament game scores in 5 or 6 notebooks.

[cheesehead]

Oops. A possibility I'd overlooked, for Black to avoid material loss after [B]29 Nd6+ K[U]f[/U]8 30 Rb1[/B]

If I'd done a _thorough_ search of Black replies to 30 Rb1, I'd have found this. And if it saves Black from loss, perhaps 29 Rb1 (or 29 somethingelse) would've been better than 29 Nd6+. That oversight may have cost us a win.

[B]30 ... Be5[/B]
While we threaten to win a knight, so does Black, with the added benefit of protecting the R/b8 if our N/d6 moves or is captured.

This needs analysis to determine whether it actually does save Black from material loss.
(Note: In case of the other king move, 30 ... Be5 is not feasible.
29 ... K[U][B]d[/B][/U]8 30 Rb1 Be5, 31 Nf7+ and 32 Nxe5 wins a bishop.)

If [B]31 Nxc8 Nxc5 32 Rxb8 Bxb8 33 Nb6[/B], material is even.
[B]33 ... Ba7[/B] threatens to change that, but [B]34 Nc4[/B] takes the sting out of [B]34 ... Nb3+[/B]. However, we'd still be left with mere equality of material after [B]35 Kf1[/B] instead of the Exchange or piece I'd been expecting Rb1 to get us. (Then [B]35 ... g5[/B] or [B]35 ... h5[/B] prevents 36 Bxh6.)

What can [B]31 Bf4[/B] do for us?

Have I overlooked something for us in this line?

- - -

A try for us:

[B]31 Bxh6+[/B]

If [B]31 ... Kg8[/B]

If [B]32 Rxb3[/B]
If [B]32 ... Bxd6[/B] ?????
If [B]32 ... Rxb3[/B]
If [B]33 Nxc8 Rb1+ 34 Kf2 Nxc8 35 Nxe6 Bxc3 36 Be4 Rb2+ 37 Kg1 Ne7[/B] we're down a rook for bishop-and-pawn
If [B]33 ????[/B]
If [B]32 ... ????[/B]

If [B]32 Nxb3[/B] ?????

If [B]32 Nxc8[/B] ?????

If [B]32 Nc4[/B]
If [B]32 ... Nxc5
[/B]If [B]33 Rxb8 Bxb8[/B] we're down a knight for a pawn.
If [B]33 ????[/B]

If [B]32 Bf4[/B] ?????

+ +

If [B]31 ... Bg7 32 Bxg7+ Kxg7[/B]
If [B]33 Rxb3[/B] ????
If [B]33 ????[/B]

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=cheesehead;374833]< snip >
[B]29 Nd6+ K[U]f[/U]8 30 Rb1[/B]

< snip >

[B]30 ... Be5[/B]

< snip >

What can [B]31 Bf4[/B] do for us?[/QUOTE]Save the win, that's what.

[B]29 Nd6+ K[U]f[/U]8 30 Rb1[/B] [B]Be5[/B] [B]31 Bf4[/B]

If [B]31 ... Bxf4 32 gxf4[/B] and our threat on the b-file to win at least the Exchange remains unchanged.

If [B]31 ... Bxd6 32 Bxd6 Rb6 33 Bxe7+ Kxe7 34 Rxb3[/B] we're up a knight.

If [B]31 ... Bxc3 32 Rxb3[/B] we're up a knight for a pawn.

If [B]31 ... Nxc5 32 Rxb8 Bxc3 33 Nxc8[/B] we're up a rook for a pawn.

If [B]31 ... Rb6[/B]
If [B]32 Bxe5[/B] we're up a bishop.
If [B]32 Nxc8 Nxc8 33 Bxe5 Nxc5 34 Rxb6 Nxb6 35 Bd6+ K-moves 36 Bxc5[/B] we're up a piece.
If [B]32 Rxb3 Rxd6 33 Bxe5[/B] we're up a bishop.

If [B]31 ... ????[/B]