White 25

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=LaurV;370604]:w00t: strange! because [U]you[/U] put this idea into my mind, and it made roots, hehe, see your posts for the former move, where you "refuted" most of my choices on the reason that black can exchange that horse in the center. After looking deeper into it I reached the conclusion that you were right, therefore now I really believe that we have to avoid that exchange.[/QUOTE]Oh, I guess my fatigue had me confused.

There were some lines I investigated where allowing Black to sac the knight for two center pawns turned out okay because of other considerations. But most of the time, not allowing that was better.

[quote][QUOTE=cheesehead;370554][strike](1) 25 Ne3[/strike] loses us at least a pawn.[/QUOTE]I still don't see how.[/quote]I made two mistakes in post #20.
One was just a typo, and corrected by post #21.
More-confusing was that I miscounted when I wrote, "... and we wind up losing a knight and a pawn." That should have been just, "... and we wind up losing a pawn."

Step by step:

25 Ne3 bxc3 26 bxc3 (at this point, we're even)
26 ... Nxd4 (now we're down a pawn) and now

If 27 cxd4 Bxd4 (forks our unprotected rook and N/c5)
28 Rc1 Bxc5 29 Rxc4 Bb6 and we're still down a pawn.

If instead
27 Nxc4 Ne2+ 28 K-moves Nxc3 (again, we're down a pawn)
If now 29 Bxc3 Bxc3 (once again, we're down a pawn).

[quote]You don't need to write down every possible move, this is pain in the ass for you,[/quote]Thank you for your compassion, but ...

When I write down every possible move, that's for [U]me[/U], so [U]I[/U] don't overlook anything.

[quote]and difficult to follow for us.[/quote]Sorry.

I'll post my easier-to-follow summary for [b]25 Bxh6[/b] later today.

[LaurV]

[QUOTE=cheesehead;370645]
Step by step:

25 Ne3 bxc3 26 bxc3 (at this point, we're even)
26 ... Nxd4 (now we're down a pawn) and now

[STRIKE]If 27 cxd4 Bxd4 (forks our unprotected rook and N/c5)
28 Rc1 Bxc5 29 Rxc4 Bb6 and we're still down a pawn.

If instead[/STRIKE]
27 Nxc4 Ne2+ 28 K-moves [STRIKE]Nxc3 (again, we're down a pawn)
If now 29 Bxc3 Bxc3 (once again, we're down a pawn).[/STRIKE]
[/QUOTE]

yes, 28 Kf1 Nxc3, but they have now 2 pawns under siege, can not defend both of them, and can not open the a1-f6 line with a check with the horse, to take our rook. We can take any pawn. We can do even better: [B]29 Nd6+[/B]!. They can't do Kf8, because after Rc1 they lose a figure (either the horse in c3, or the bishop in c8) [U]for free[/U]. Huh? :razz:

So, the game up to here, and after, is forced, 29...Kd8, 30 Rc1 Ne7d5 (I don't think there are other better moves for black, without losing a figure) 31 Nxc8 Rxc8 32 Nxe6, check, that is our pawn back, and much a better position then. No "down pawn" for us. In fact, we may even win here, because after Kd7 (otherwise they lose the horse for free, the king need to defend the rook, all black pieces are overloaded) we do Bxd5 Nxd5 Rxc8 Kxc8 Bxh6, and we have a "pawn up" on the final of the game.

[edit: I think a better reply for them would be 28...Bxc3, but that is good for us too]

[edit 2: remark they can't 31...Kxc8 because Bxd5]

[cheesehead]

(After [B]25 Ne3 bxc3 26 bxc3 Nxd4 27 Nxc4 Ne2+[/B])
[QUOTE=LaurV;370650]yes, [B]28 Kf1 Nxc3[/B], but they have now 2 pawns under siege, can not defend both of them,[/QUOTE]We're attacking 3 pawns: h6 by B/d2, e6 by N/c5 (could add Bh3), and a5 by N/c4 (and B/d2 if N/c3 moves).

[quote]and can not open the a1-f6 line with a check with the horse, to take our rook.[/quote]But even though it's not a check, 29 ... Ne4 would attack our undefended N/c5 while uncovering the attack on our R/a1 (in the position after move 28 without further move by White). In order to save both, we'd have to move the rook, protect/move the N/c5, [I]or do a check-a-rooni[/I] on our move 29.

[quote][B]29 Nd6+[/B]!. They can't do Kf8,[/quote]Actually, yes, they can.[quote]because after Rc1 they lose a figure (either the horse in c3, or the bishop in c8)[/quote]No, not quite right. The B/c8 is already defended twice (by R/b8 and N/e7) without needing the king to be on d8, so our discovered attack on it by rook after the knights on c3 and c5 move wouldn't win it. Besides, ... Na2 would give our rook a hotfoot so we couldn't just let it sit on c1.

[quote][B]29...Kd8[/B][/quote](or [B]... Kf8[/B])[quote][B]30 Rc1 Ne7d5[/B][/quote]or ... [B]Na2 31 Rc2[/B] (or Rc4 as long as the N/c5 guards against the Ba6 pin) [B]31 ... Nb4 32 R-moves.[/B]
[quote][B]31 Nxc8 Rxc8 32 Nxe6, check[/B][/quote](whether the K is on d8 or f8)[quote], that is our pawn back, and much a better position then. No "down pawn" for us. In fact, we may even win here, because after Kd7[/quote]([B]32 ... Kd7 or Ke7 or Ke8[/B], or 32 ... Kf7 or Kg8 if 29 ... Kf8, to keep track)[quote](otherwise they lose the horse for free, the king need to defend the rook, all black pieces are overloaded) we do [B]33 Bxd5 Nxd5 34 Rxc8 Kxc8 35 Bxh6[/B], and we have a "pawn up" on the final of the game. [/quote]Okay, except for alternative moves I noted.

[quote][edit 2: remark they can't 31...Kxc8 because Bxd5][/quote]Agree.


- - - - -

Well!

Since we can do Bxh6 eventually after [B]25 Ne3[/B], I'll drop my not-quite-finished work on [B]25 Bxh6[/B].

25 Ne3 is feasible after all!

Now, I'll ponder my vote.

[WMHalsdorf]

The more I look at Ne3 the more I like it over Ne4 or Bxh6. Black has to choose from giving as passed pawn or gibing up a knight to get a passed pawn which can be captured by us latter to our advantage.
1. Ne3 5 pts
2. Ne4 4 pts
3. Bxh6 3 pts.
all others 0 pts.

[cheesehead]

Let's look some more at one of the alternatives I suggested:

[B]25 Ne3 bxc3 26 bxc3 Nxd4 27 Nxc4 Ne2+ 28 Kf1 Nxc3 [/B][B][B]29 Nd6+ Kf8 [/B][/B](where Black varies from the main line we've looked at recently)[B][B] 30 Rc1 Na2 31[/B][/B][B] Rc4.[/B]

We have threats, such as 32 Nxc8 33 Nxe6+ 34 Bd5 or 32 Bxh6 but I don't have time to sort them all out

I've ruled out some Black possibilities on move 31, but these remain, each with some sort of merit:

31 ... Rb1+
31 ... Rb2
31 ... Rb6
31 ... e5
31 ... Be5
31 ... Bg7
31 ... g5
31 ... h5

- - -

My votes:

25 Bxh6 -- 3
25 Ne3 -- 3
25 Be3 -- 2
25 Ne4 -- 2
25 Rc1 -- 1

I just can't be enthusiastic about any of them.

- - -
So, if no one changes his vote (LaurV's in post #18), and I've added them correctly (LaurV's + WMHalsdorf's + cheesehead's) totals are:

25 Ne3 -- 3+5+3 = 11
25 Ne4 -- 5+4+2 = 11
25 Bxh6 -- 0+3+3 = 6
25 Rc1 -- 2+0+1 = 3
25 Be3 -- 1+0+2 = 3
25 Nf2 -- 2+0+0 = 2

Who'll change a Ne vote to break the tie?

[QUOTE=cheesehead;370276]

Our deadline is [URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=370217&postcount=136"]Thursday. April 10, 11:08 UTC[/URL] = [B]6[/B]:08 PM Thai time = 7:08 AM EDT = 6:08 AM CDT[/QUOTE]Slightly over 13 hours from now.

[LaurV]

[QUOTE=cheesehead;370697]
Who'll change a Ne vote to break the tie?
[/QUOTE]
Well, I won't :razz: Or maybe I will, considering that I didn't give any 4 points, I may raise Ne3 to 4 points, or decrease Ne4 to 4 points. But I don't like any of the solutions. I like 25 Ne4. :razz:

I gave the spread analysis to Ne3 because that was the argument about, but I still believe that Ne4 is much better. We only analyzed 25 Ne3 with 28...Nxc3 (again, that the argument was about), but I believe that black can evade better if he plays 28... Bxc3. The version discussed here is misleading, it looks better for us than it is in reality. And extended with 29 Kf8 by cheesehead is even more misleading, they will not be silly to play Kf8, this is very bad for black, if they play [B][B]"28...Nxc3 29 Nd6+ Kf8 [/B][/B](where Black varies from the main line we've looked at recently)[B][B] 30 Rc1 Na2[/B][/B] [STRIKE][B][B]31[/B][/B][B] Rc4[/B][/STRIKE]" then [B]31 Nxc8[/B], and that's our wood. Think about!

Unfortunately I can't give a more complex analysis for 25 Ne4 in the remaining hours, I have no chess board and I am at job. For the comment above I used cheesehead's analysis and Batalov's board. For now my vote stays the same, 5 points for Ne4 and only 3 for Ne3, remark that I didn't give it a 4, because I really think there is a difference between the two moves. I may come back during the lunch break, to say few words about Ne4, but that is difficult without board.

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=LaurV;370733]And extended with 29 Kf8 by cheesehead is even more misleading, they will not be silly to play Kf8, this is very bad for black, if they play [B][B]"28...Nxc3 29 Nd6+ Kf8 [/B][/B](where Black varies from the main line we've looked at recently)[B][B] 30 Rc1 Na2[/B][/B] [STRIKE][B][B]31[/B][/B][B] Rc4[/B][/STRIKE]" then [B]31 Nxc8[/B], and that's our wood. Think about![/QUOTE]Oh, okay.

[QUOTE=cheesehead;370697]
So, if no one changes his vote (LaurV's in post #18), and I've added them correctly (LaurV's + WMHalsdorf's + cheesehead's) totals are:

25 Ne3 -- 3+5+3 = 11
25 Ne4 -- 5+4+2 = 11
25 Bxh6 -- 0+3+3 = 6
25 Rc1 -- 2+0+1 = 3
25 Be3 -- 1+0+2 = 3
25 Nf2 -- 2+0+0 = 2

Who'll change a Ne vote to break the tie?

[/QUOTE]I will.

I like 25 Ne3 because it re-develops our knight off the back rank (allowing our rook more freedom) and attacks the c4-pawn. I dislike it because it gives up control of the b2 square and blocks Bxh6. (However, both of those dislikes disappear after Nxc4.) It doesn't appear, at first, to solve our d4-fork problem but its participation seems to mute that threat in some lines. But it seems awkward.

I like 25 Ne4 because it chases the B/f6, threatens Nd6+ and gets that piece off a d4-fork diagonal. I dislike it because it gives up its wonderful c5 perch that makes the B/c8 cower and restricts the R, then chases the B/f6 only back to g7 where it resumes guarding h6.

My vote:

25 Bxh6 -- 3
25 Ne3 -- 3
25 Be3 -- 2
25 Ne4 -- [strike]2[/strike] 3
25 Rc1 -- 1

Total (LaurV's + WMHalsdorf's + cheesehead's) vote:

25 Ne3 -- 3+5+3 = 11
25 Ne4 -- 5+4+[strike]2[/strike] 3 = [strike]11[/strike] 12
25 Bxh6 -- 0+3+3 = 6
25 Rc1 -- 2+0+1 = 3
25 Be3 -- 1+0+2 = 3
25 Nf2 -- 2+0+0 = 2

Deadline: 4-1/3 hours from now

[cheesehead]

(deleted)

[LaurV]

[QUOTE=cheesehead;370759](deleted)[/QUOTE]
:shock:
Man, you don't need to change your vote because of me. I appreciate a lot what you are doing, and the time you invest. I was thinking again to this two moves, during the lunch break, but without board it is very difficult. Now, I see that WMH is very serious in grading Ne3 higher, so if you also think that Ne3 is better that Ne4, than you are two against one. So, if two people tell me I am drunk, I better go to sleep. I mean, I have a (sick) preference for aggressive moves when I play, but this does not mean that I am always correct. Everybody can make mistakes. You invested a lot of analysis here, and a lot of "ink". I don't want to upset you (at least, not realted to chess :razz:). At the end, this is just a game (which we still may win, regardless of what we play now, or at least we will get a draw, i.e. we can not lose it from here, there is no way!).

So, should we play Ne3, or Ne4? You have last word. Assume that WMH and me are both very balanced about these two moves.

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=LaurV;370760]
You have last word. Assume that WMH and me are both very balanced about these two moves.[/QUOTE]
Ne3 has the (big) advantage of developing a knight off the back rank, toward the center, so I again change my vote to Ne3 -- 5
so its total goes to 13.

I've posted that (the move 25 Ne3, not the voting or debate!) on the vote thread.

Oops, I kept thinking "7:08 AM", so my post there is about 50 minutes late. I apologized.

- - -

The possible trifecta (25 ... Nxd4 26 cxd4 Bxd4 27 Ne4 Bxb2 instead of 25 ... bxc3 first) looks kinda pretty, in a scary sort of way, but we must just say "NO" to 26 cxd4 in that case.

[LaurV]

Well done. It is a good move. We still can win this game.

No need to apologize for posting, it should have been me the one who posts the move, but as I said few moves ago, this time in the afternoon/evening is quite inconvenient for me, I need some time to "close" my daily work, we have small meetings sometime to decide how to go next days, I need about 30-50 minutes do drive home, depending on traffic, then take a shower, eat some dinner (I usually don't have lunch, I prefer other things during lunch, including this forum) and in the morning is a tea/coffee/egg/cereals stuff, so I arrive home hungry, and the dinner is the main meal (yeah, I know it is not healthy!). The "6:30 PM" time, as we had for few moves (around) is exactly in the middle of this circus. So I could post only either few hours before, or few hours after.

But I am not worried about, you are doing a very good job.