Predict M49... - Page 4

WOKIDNAPS · 2013-02-08, 20:36

63,797,911 March 31, 2013

Flatlander · 2013-02-08, 21:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by davieddy

Both vague and plausible.

I'm getting some t-shirts printed with that on. Would make me sound mysterious.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flatlander

61.5M, late 2013.
(Then the four years of wilderness.)

Reason for my guess:
Big gaps had been taken. You didn't expect maths did you? I'm changing my guess to 58.7M.

davieddy · 2013-02-09, 00:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by aketilander

I based my guess on Lenstra–Pomerance–Wagstaff conjecture

Now that is what I would call "cheating".
Don't those guys have a combined Erdos rating of ~ -3?

davieddy · 2013-02-09, 16:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by gd_barnes

My prediction: There will be only one more Mersenne prime for n<100M and it will be > 4 years before it is found.

Rather than being "vsgue" it is pecise enough to be deemed improbable.

If you wnat precisely one prime, the best guess currently is < 80M (expected new primes ~1) and even that is only a 1/e shot.

Should this be the case, it is more likely to be below 70M than above.
We would hope to find it in <4 years.

David

Raman · 2013-02-10, 13:03

64601657
December 17, 2013

firejuggler · 2013-02-10, 15:50

As for the reason of my guess, let's put it as a gambler's feel.

bcp19 · 2013-02-13, 03:23

73.8M and 15 Mar 2016

Uncwilly · 2013-02-14, 00:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

79399909 on 2/13/2015

Since we get 3 active ones:
79400141 on 3/14/15

LaurV · 2013-02-14, 03:35

49M to 51M interval, this year (2013).

The time come from an approximation of when we will do the most of the range. The range come from a "fooled by randomness" approximation: in this table, I "feel" that the space between the two last "1" (ones) in the 3rd column is "too big" compared with the other spaced, so I placed my bet "in the middle"... or... would a "golden ratio" be a better bet?

davieddy · 2013-02-14, 22:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by LaurV

49M to 51M interval, this year (2013).

The time come from an approximation of when we will do the most of the range. The range come from a "fooled by randomness" approximation: in this table, I "feel" that the space between the two last "1" (ones) in the 3rd column is "too big" compared with the other spaced, so I placed my bet "in the middle"... or... would a "golden ratio" be a better bet?

You are trying to oudo me when it comes to talking twaddle.

The OP (ake...) suggested that time and space were somehow distinct.

I agree (up to a point).
However, in this case, the best we can ask for is that they be at least plausibly consistent.
The thing is, we don't know WHERE the F****** are, but we can at least try to speed up the search for them.

David

MattcAnderson · 2013-02-17, 03:01

I predict that M49 will be discovered on September 9, 2015.

2013-02-08, 20:36	#34
WOKIDNAPS Jul 2012 -ECDK- 4₁₆ Posts	63,797,911 March 31, 2013 Last fiddled with by WOKIDNAPS on 2013-02-08 at 20:37

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2013-02-10, 13:03	#38
Raman Noodles "Mr. Tuch" Dec 2007 Chennai, India 3·419 Posts	64601657 December 17, 2013

2013-02-10, 15:50	#39
firejuggler Apr 2010 Over the rainbow 101000101000₂ Posts	As for the reason of my guess, let's put it as a gambler's feel.

2013-02-13, 03:23	#40
bcp19 Oct 2011 7×97 Posts	73.8M and 15 Mar 2016

2013-02-14, 03:35	#42
LaurV Romulan Interpreter Jun 2011 Thailand 10010110001011₂ Posts	49M to 51M interval, this year (2013). The time come from an approximation of when we will do the most of the range. The range come from a "fooled by randomness" approximation: in this table, I "feel" that the space between the two last "1" (ones) in the 3rd column is "too big" compared with the other spaced, so I placed my bet "in the middle"... or... would a "golden ratio" be a better bet?

2013-02-17, 03:01	#44
MattcAnderson "Matthew Anderson" Dec 2010 Oregon, USA 2⁵·5² Posts	I predict that M49 will be discovered on September 9, 2015.