Predict M49... - Page 2

philmoore · 2013-02-06, 03:48

M76706041, August 21, 2017.

petrw1 · 2013-02-06, 03:49

Time for a couple close ones again....49532123 - February 12, 2013

dabaichi · 2013-02-06, 03:49

70.12M range in July 2016.

gmn17 · 2013-02-06, 05:22

I have done somye excel and mathematica analysis and get a 99.2% chance that the next exponent is in the 50,000,000-53,000,000 range. See files attached. and the 50th in the 64,000,000-66,000,000 range. SO check these ranges thorougly
Thanks,
Gregory

Brian-E · 2013-02-06, 09:06

In the range 37.1M-37.2M, remarkably close to what we currently call M45, and it will be found as a triple check in September 2015 after two non-matching tests which incorrectly return composite, just one of which has currently already been done.

axn · 2013-02-06, 09:51

Carrying over (and refining) my prediction from the previous two threads:

68407583 6/14/2015

joblack · 2013-02-06, 20:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prime95

Ever the pessimist, I predict ~88,300,000 in August 2019.

It depends. When will you go another vacation, again? ;)

NBtarheel_33 · 2013-02-06, 21:41

~64,500,000 by the end of 2014.

(I would also not be surprised to find another prime in the range 50-55M. Hope springs eternal.

)

davieddy · 2013-02-06, 22:24

When and where the next MP is is a moving target.
This is what GIMPS is about.
4 years time is a sensible (and sustainable) guess.

D

ewmayer · 2013-02-07, 03:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prime95

Ever the pessimist, I predict ~88,300,000 in August 2019.

Combining the well-known --George "by a nose" algorithm, Crank (p-1) Smoothness^TM and my innate raving optimism, I predict

88291201, in May 2019.

VBCurtis · 2013-02-07, 03:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by gmn17

I have done somye excel and mathematica analysis and get a 99.2% chance that the next exponent is in the 50,000,000-53,000,000 range. See files attached. and the 50th in the 64,000,000-66,000,000 range. SO check these ranges thorougly
Thanks,
Gregory

Perhaps my sarcasm meter is broken, but a 0.8% chance of a prime in 50M-53M sounds about right, given that some tests have already been completed. You sure you didn't forget a "1 - x" term in there somewhere?

A 99% chance? I'll settle for the under at 50% odds- if there is no prime, I win; if a mersenne prime is found in that range, you win. If your spreadsheet is correct, I am offering you 1-1 odds on a 992-8 favorite.

2013-02-06, 03:49	#13
petrw1 1976 Toyota Corona years forever! "Wayne" Nov 2006 Saskatchewan, Canada 2²×7×167 Posts	Keeping my M48 cause CC found M49 Time for a couple close ones again....49532123 - February 12, 2013

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Predict M50	Uncwilly	Lounge	65	2018-01-06 17:11
Predict M#50...	Raman	Lounge	3	2016-10-03 19:23
Predict M44...	Xyzzy	Lounge	66	2014-02-01 14:45
Predict M45...	ewmayer	Lounge	215	2008-09-17 21:14
Predict M42	Uncwilly	Lounge	22	2005-02-27 02:11

2013-02-06, 03:48	#12
philmoore "Phil" Sep 2002 Tracktown, U.S.A. 1119₁₀ Posts	M76706041, August 21, 2017.

2013-02-06, 03:49	#14
dabaichi Sep 2011 2²·23 Posts	70.12M range in July 2016.

2013-02-06, 09:06	#16
Brian-E "Brian" Jul 2007 The Netherlands 3269₁₀ Posts	In the range 37.1M-37.2M, remarkably close to what we currently call M45, and it will be found as a triple check in September 2015 after two non-matching tests which incorrectly return composite, just one of which has currently already been done.

2013-02-06, 09:51	#17
axn Jun 2003 5,051 Posts	Carrying over (and refining) my prediction from the previous two threads: 68407583 6/14/2015

2013-02-06, 21:41	#19
NBtarheel_33 "Nathan" Jul 2008 Maryland, USA 1115₁₀ Posts	~64,500,000 by the end of 2014. (I would also not be surprised to find another prime in the range 50-55M. Hope springs eternal. )

2013-02-06, 22:24	#20
davieddy "Lucan" Dec 2006 England 14512₈ Posts	When and where the next MP is is a moving target. This is what GIMPS is about. 4 years time is a sensible (and sustainable) guess. D