Mersenne prime discovery rate

davieddy · 2012-11-26, 03:26

The expected ratio of successive exponents is 1.48.
Each discovery will need 1.48^3 = 3.25 more computing than the previous one - more iterations, more time per iteration and more candidates to test.

Let us say such an increase in LL-computing occurs every four years.
We can expect a prime every four years for as long as this "Moore's Law" continues.

The happy reason I am pointing this out now is that this is now close to our current expectation: 0.1% chance of a discovery in well under two days.
Note the modest resources needed to accomplish this:
Ten LL tests per hour, taking a month on average to complete.
30*24*10 = 7200 tests in progress at any one time.

David
One of the 7200 non time-wasters:smile:

2012-11-26, 03:26	#1
davieddy "Lucan" Dec 2006 England 2×3×13×83 Posts	Mersenne prime discovery rate The expected ratio of successive exponents is 1.48. Each discovery will need 1.48^3 = 3.25 more computing than the previous one - more iterations, more time per iteration and more candidates to test. Let us say such an increase in LL-computing occurs every four years. We can expect a prime every four years for as long as this "Moore's Law" continues. The happy reason I am pointing this out now is that this is now close to our current expectation: 0.1% chance of a discovery in well under two days. Note the modest resources needed to accomplish this: Ten LL tests per hour, taking a month on average to complete. 302410 = 7200 tests in progress at any one time. David One of the 7200 non time-wasters:smile:

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