Chance of living N years? What's the formula for that? - Page 2

Dubslow · 2012-09-03, 00:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by firejuggler

*insert obligatory " who want to live forever" song*

This is for D

science_man_88 · 2012-09-05, 13:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xyzzy

.

I added it up in pari and got just about 22% chance of death overall.

edit: even rounding up the chance of survival to 80% .8^4<.5 so you have a less than 50% chance of survival after 4 years.

science_man_88 · 2012-09-05, 14:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by science_man_88

I added it up in pari and got just about 22% chance of death overall.

edit: even rounding up the chance of survival to 80% .8^4<.5 so you have a less than 50% chance of survival after 4 years.

just a note: I'm not experienced with unbalanced coins. I realized the events are connected so why am I thinking unbalanced coins.

jasong · 2012-09-09, 03:32

I suppose the original question was meant to be how long would the average person live if ill health and old age weren't possible. So you'd still have injuries, you'd simply be able to heal 100% as long as it wasn't too traumatic. So there'd be a lot fewer people with canes and limps would be non-permanent, among other things.

There are other things to think about as well. There'd have to be a way to restart the teething process, at least with specific teeth that fall out. And what about the death of brain cells, do you just keep signing the rejuvanation consent form every decade until you're too stupid to do so? Then there's comas, alzheimer's, population explosion, available food, so-called life sentences for violent acts, the list goes on forever.

I'm an especially interesting case. The symptoms to paranoid schizophrenia tend to decrease over time. I could be totally independent when I'm 50, I'll have lost a big chunk of my life in terms of earning money, though. So what happens if I get a medical disease in a world where people don't die of natural causes? My earning potential is minimal at the moment, but in 20 years I might be healthy enough to attend college. So how does a loan officer determine my ability to pay if I ask for the ability to not pay the loan for a decade or more before I start giving payments? Usually, it would be no deal, but the average lifespan is probably a thousand or so years in a world where you can't die of natural causes.

wblipp · 2012-09-10, 23:06

IIRC, if you cut the rate of death from all causes at all ages in half, you increase life expectancy by 8 years. This article seems to be saying the same thing from a slightly different point of view.

One evolutionary explanation is that genetic changes that push a problem off to a later age are just as "fit" as genetic changes that prevent the problem, and are much more common. So the "solution" that evolution finds for many problems is a way to postpone it. Hence as you get older, you rapidly run into a brick wall of postponed problems.

In terms of the original question, "accidents, suicide, and cancer" have very little effect on life expectancy of old folks. If "disease" means "infectious disease," then it's not going to be much either. If "disease" includes degenerative diseases, then the question has become "what if you never get old," and is nearly meaningless.

jasong · 2012-09-12, 06:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by wblipp

IIRC, if you cut the rate of death from all causes at all ages in half, you increase life expectancy by 8 years. This article seems to be saying the same thing from a slightly different point of view.

One evolutionary explanation is that genetic changes that push a problem off to a later age are just as "fit" as genetic changes that prevent the problem, and are much more common. So the "solution" that evolution finds for many problems is a way to postpone it. Hence as you get older, you rapidly run into a brick wall of postponed problems.

In terms of the original question, "accidents, suicide, and cancer" have very little effect on life expectancy of old folks. If "disease" means "infectious disease," then it's not going to be much either. If "disease" includes degenerative diseases, then the question has become "what if you never get old," and is nearly meaningless.

I guess my version of the question is,"How long could we live if the only way to die were accidental death?" Even if we were able to 100% solve the problem of things like AIDS, heart disease, infections, etc., there'd still be the possibility of doing things like driving off the road or falling off of ladders and whatnot.

retina · 2012-09-12, 06:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasong

I guess my version of the question is,"How long could we live if the only way to die were accidental death?" Even if we were able to 100% solve the problem of things like AIDS, heart disease, infections, etc., there'd still be the possibility of doing things like driving off the road or falling off of ladders and whatnot.

Just live your "life" sealed inside a small hollow at the centre of planet-sized gold sphere travelling slowly and freely through space towards the least densely populated area of the universe. That should keep you good for a while. Although I can't vouch for the level of sanity that could be maintained in such a situation.

LaurV · 2012-09-12, 06:40

If the only way to die for some people would be accidental death, then I would become master in planning and committing accidental... accidents... It could be a very profitable job... I still recall the joke with the mother in law wanting to test if her three sons in law love her, and played dead. The first son in law came, got very worried, called the paramedics, etc. Next day he found a Mercedes in front of his door, with a letter "the one who does good finds better". Signed: "mother in law". After few weeks the story repeats with the second son in law, she pretends to be death, he start crying and screaming, calls the hospital, alerts everybody, etc, next day he finds a Porsche in front of his door, and the letter "the one who does good finds better". Signed: "mother in law". The third son in law, when his time came, looked to the old lady laying down and said "you died old viper!" but he wonder "hm, seems like she is breathing still" and took a brick and hit her in the head "just in case" he said, killing her for good. The next day he finds a Ferrari in front of his door, with a cheque of one million bucks on the chair and of course, the letter "the one who does good finds better". Signed: "father in law".

Xyzzy · 2012-09-12, 11:24

Quote:

Just live your "life" sealed inside a small hollow at the centre of planet-sized gold sphere travelling slowly and freely through space towards the least densely populated area of the universe. That should keep you good for a while. Although I can't vouch for the level of sanity that could be maintained in such a situation.

That sounds (a little) like a scene from "The Fountain".

FWIW, "Death is the Road to Awe", from the soundtrack, is an awesome bit of music. Play it loud for maximum effect.

2012-09-12, 06:40	#19
LaurV Romulan Interpreter Jun 2011 Thailand 7×1,373 Posts	If the only way to die for some people would be accidental death, then I would become master in planning and committing accidental... accidents... It could be a very profitable job... I still recall the joke with the mother in law wanting to test if her three sons in law love her, and played dead. The first son in law came, got very worried, called the paramedics, etc. Next day he found a Mercedes in front of his door, with a letter "the one who does good finds better". Signed: "mother in law". After few weeks the story repeats with the second son in law, she pretends to be death, he start crying and screaming, calls the hospital, alerts everybody, etc, next day he finds a Porsche in front of his door, and the letter "the one who does good finds better". Signed: "mother in law". The third son in law, when his time came, looked to the old lady laying down and said "you died old viper!" but he wonder "hm, seems like she is breathing still" and took a brick and hit her in the head "just in case" he said, killing her for good. The next day he finds a Ferrari in front of his door, with a cheque of one million bucks on the chair and of course, the letter "the one who does good finds better". Signed: "father in law". Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2012-09-12 at 06:47

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2012-09-09, 03:32	#15
jasong "Jason Goatcher" Mar 2005 3·7·167 Posts	I suppose the original question was meant to be how long would the average person live if ill health and old age weren't possible. So you'd still have injuries, you'd simply be able to heal 100% as long as it wasn't too traumatic. So there'd be a lot fewer people with canes and limps would be non-permanent, among other things. There are other things to think about as well. There'd have to be a way to restart the teething process, at least with specific teeth that fall out. And what about the death of brain cells, do you just keep signing the rejuvanation consent form every decade until you're too stupid to do so? Then there's comas, alzheimer's, population explosion, available food, so-called life sentences for violent acts, the list goes on forever. I'm an especially interesting case. The symptoms to paranoid schizophrenia tend to decrease over time. I could be totally independent when I'm 50, I'll have lost a big chunk of my life in terms of earning money, though. So what happens if I get a medical disease in a world where people don't die of natural causes? My earning potential is minimal at the moment, but in 20 years I might be healthy enough to attend college. So how does a loan officer determine my ability to pay if I ask for the ability to not pay the loan for a decade or more before I start giving payments? Usually, it would be no deal, but the average lifespan is probably a thousand or so years in a world where you can't die of natural causes.

2012-09-10, 23:06	#16
wblipp "William" May 2003 New Haven 2·7·13² Posts	IIRC, if you cut the rate of death from all causes at all ages in half, you increase life expectancy by 8 years. This article seems to be saying the same thing from a slightly different point of view. One evolutionary explanation is that genetic changes that push a problem off to a later age are just as "fit" as genetic changes that prevent the problem, and are much more common. So the "solution" that evolution finds for many problems is a way to postpone it. Hence as you get older, you rapidly run into a brick wall of postponed problems. In terms of the original question, "accidents, suicide, and cancer" have very little effect on life expectancy of old folks. If "disease" means "infectious disease," then it's not going to be much either. If "disease" includes degenerative diseases, then the question has become "what if you never get old," and is nearly meaningless.