TF: A job half done?

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by ATH

Date (YYYY-MM-DD)    Assigned+Completed LL 50-51M    Available LL 51-52M
2010-01-01            79                 7894
2010-02-01               100                    10387
2010-03-01              2795                    12066
2010-04-01              9211                    13726
2010-05-01             13141                    14282
2010-06-01             19681                    14759
2010-07-01             19123                    15348
2010-08-02             16455                    15531
2010-09-01             14415                    15639

Here is the monthly data 49-54M since january: LL+P-1stats.txt

t's somewhat hard to interpret since alot of things is going on. Around april there was alot of TF work 51-53M, which interferes with available P-1. From Aug to Sep "Assigned LL" 50-51M went down about 3000 while Completed LL only went up 900, rest seems to have become "Available P-1".

Let me know if you want more from the old summary reports.

The silence is deafening.

It is no shock to me, because I monitor the Gimp's Progress hourly.

I explained to WBLipp over a pint of Broadside in The Well after an
enjoyable walk over Hampstead Heath why I thought a 100 million
digit prime was unlikely to be found before 2025.

If we only buy 20,000 lotery tickets a year I think it is conceivable
that at odds of 1 in 400,000 we might not win before then.

David

[lorgix]

Originally Posted by davieddy

I explained to WBLipp over a pint of Broadside in The Well after an
enjoyable walk over Hampstead Heath why I thought a 100 million
digit prime was unlikely to be found before 2025.

If we only buy 20,000 lotery tickets a year I think it is conceivable
that at odds of 1 in 400,000 we might not win before then.

David

Not that I interpret that literally, but I used those exact numbers from your lottery analogy. For fun mostly. The point where >=1 win becomes more likely than 0 wins is about 13.9yrs.

However; considering Moore's law and the number 2025 I'm guessing the scales tip the other way.

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by lorgix

Not that I interpret that literally, but I used those exact numbers from your lottery analogy. For fun mostly. The point where >=1 win becomes more likely than 0 wins is about 13.9yrs.

However; considering Moore's law and the number 2025 I'm guessing the scales tip the other way.

Welcome to the house of fun!
Europe is a big (and increasingly so) place, but several folk round
here delight in vagueness of location. I blame the police/security
paranoia.

Yep. 20*ln2~13.9 (if my calculator is to be believed).

Folk here argue about Moore's "Law", so let us just say
loosely that it refers to an exponential increase in TFlops(/s?)

Re GIMPS, the number of participants enters into the equation.

Re the likelihood of finding any (let alone 100Mdigit) Mersenne
prime, heuristics suggest we should work with log(exponent)
rather than my crude approximation of the current state of play.

What is it about 2025?
1984 passed with George Orwell's forebodings re Big Brother
completely fulfilled.

David