Newer milestone thread - Page 204

ATH · 2016-02-10, 04:58

Quote:

Countdown to first time checking all exponents below M(74207281): 77,551

This milestone started at 81,884 on Jan 19th at 15:00 UTC, so it has gone down 8.38 per hour or 201 every 24 hours.
Last 24 hours: -202
Last 7 days: -1445 (-206 per day)

Madpoo · 2016-02-10, 15:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATH

This milestone started at 81,884 on Jan 19th at 15:00 UTC, so it has gone down 8.38 per hour or 201 every 24 hours.
Last 24 hours: -202
Last 7 days: -1445 (-206 per day)

Seems reasonable according the graph of LL results here:
http://www.mersenne.org/primenet/graphs.php

Keeping in mind that of the total daily first time checks, most will be below M49 but not all.

I like seeing the # of daily DC's higher than the LL checks, just because DC's are so far behind and have a lot of catching up to do. And they take less time to run so there *should* be more done per day anyway, I think.

chalsall · 2016-02-10, 16:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madpoo

Keeping in mind that of the total daily first time checks, most will be below M49 but not all.

You are confusing LLs with DCs.

Most LLs will be below 75M, but not all...

manfred4 · 2016-02-10, 16:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by chalsall

You are confusing LLs with DCs.

Most LLs will be below 75M, but not all...

And you are confusing M49 with 49M

chalsall · 2016-02-10, 16:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by manfred4

And you are confusing M49 with 49M

LOL...

Dubslow · 2016-02-10, 16:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by manfred4

And you are confusing M49 with 49M

Excellent spotting, I was quite confused as to how that happened

Madpoo · 2016-02-10, 21:17

I'm wrapping my head around the "if then or that then this else if that then this but not that" expiration rules... it's got my brain in a knot but I think I'm making progress.

What I want to be able to do is spit out a simple "days to expire" rather than the ambiguous and ultimately meaningless "age" on the assignment report.

That may help clear up some confusion (my own included) regarding just when an exponent can be expected to be recycled.

In the process I am experiencing some consternation at some rules...

For example, cat 3 and 4 require the work be started within 180 days...fine for them. But there isn't a "must start in XX days" for cat 1 and 2 and I feel like there should be.

Consider this example:
http://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=63921667

It was cat 1 when assigned 64 days ago and hasn't even started on it (or hasn't checked in...same thing from the server's point of view).

Yet it has 90 days before it'll expire... shouldn't we expect that someone who gets cat 1 and has a queue depth of < 10 days would actually *start* this within 10 days? And start within 30 days for cat 2, like they promised to?

Also, from all appearances a cat2-4 assignment won't expire even if it takes more than 150/180/360 days unless that exponent has moved into cat 1 territory by then. So there is a grace period there... a cat 3 assignment that's only cat 2 after a year or two can keep hanging on to it as long as they checked in some progress at all in the first 180 days of the assignment... even if they checked in the next day at 0.1% and then we never saw them again, several years back.

By way of example:
http://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=68549329

It was a cat 4 when assigned 847 days ago (October of 2013). But because it's still not in cat 1 territory it's still there. It just won't die until 68549329 is moved into cat 1.

In fact there are a somewhat surprising # of old cat 3 and 4 assignments that are more than 90 days old but are living in category 2 land right now.

For some, their grace is nearly over... they're very near the cat 1 threshold and after almost 2 years they'll finally have to admit defeat and be recycled.

These, for example, may be recycled in the next day or two after 621 days (and being only 88% done in all that time): M67628417, M67628777

Anyway, surprising stuff in there for me in terms of how these old things seem to linger well past their freshness date.

My immediate thoughts were that cat 1 and 2 need a "start in this many days" clause added in.

The lingering cat 3 and 4 stuff is weird but I know when they hit cat 1 they will recycle so I'm not terribly concerned, it's just weird. But hey, if they can manage to finish it in 18 months and squeak in just before it becomes cat 1, well, good for them, although I wonder what's happening that it's going so slow. I mean, 847 days on M68477317 and it's only 46.5% done? Should we give them until my estimate of July 2017 to finish? LOL

Madpoo · 2016-02-10, 22:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madpoo

I'm wrapping my head around the "if then or that then this else if that then this but not that" expiration rules... it's got my brain in a knot but I think I'm making progress.

Here's a real world case with "expires in" times for the LL milestones < 63M:

Code:

exponent	Expires	stage	% Done	Age	Last Update      	Expected Completion
60371299	38  	LL	95.4	52	2016-02-10 09:37:40	2016-02-13 12:37:43
60732869	69  	LL	67.5	21	2016-02-10 05:23:05	2016-02-17 00:31:57
62259079	3   	LL	98.1	87	2016-01-14 16:33:54	2016-01-15 03:37:36
62467271	6   	LL	92.1	84	2015-12-28 10:32:23	2015-12-31 05:09:45
62794009	8   	LL	76	82	2016-01-14 16:33:53	2016-01-20 14:41:18
62801633	8   	LL	82.5	82	2015-12-28 10:32:22	2016-01-03 15:07:03
62900003	9   	LL	84	81	2016-01-14 16:21:16	2016-01-17 16:14:34
62920681	9   	LL	89.4	81	2015-12-15 09:21:38	2015-12-17 12:29:35

The "expires in" info isn't important in a vacuum... you'd have to look at the % done and ETA to know if it'll finish in time.

ATH · 2016-02-11, 08:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madpoo

Code:

62259079	3   	LL	98.1	87	2016-01-14 16:33:54	2016-01-15 03:37:36

I started 62259079, it should finish so I can turn it in just hours before it expires. It is at 88 days now, I assume the day count changes at midnight UTC? or is it exactly at the hour when the user originally got the exponent?

cuBerBruce · 2016-02-11, 15:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATH

I started 62259079, it should finish so I can turn it in just hours before it expires. It is at 88 days now, I assume the day count changes at midnight UTC? or is it exactly at the hour when the user originally got the exponent?

It seems to me it changes at UTC midnight. (I recently had an assignment reported as a day old only minutes after I got the assignment.) Once it shows as having an age of 90 days, I believe it has 23+ hours left before it expires.

ATH · 2016-02-11, 17:16

Aaron or George can you confirm it is recycled at midnight UTC and when the age is changing from 90 to 91 days?

2016-02-11, 17:16	#2244
ATH Einyen Dec 2003 Denmark 2×1,579 Posts	Aaron or George can you confirm it is recycled at midnight UTC and when the age is changing from 90 to 91 days? Last fiddled with by ATH on 2016-02-11 at 17:17

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2016-02-10, 21:17	#2240
Madpoo Serpentine Vermin Jar Jul 2014 3,313 Posts	I'm wrapping my head around the "if then or that then this else if that then this but not that" expiration rules... it's got my brain in a knot but I think I'm making progress. What I want to be able to do is spit out a simple "days to expire" rather than the ambiguous and ultimately meaningless "age" on the assignment report. That may help clear up some confusion (my own included) regarding just when an exponent can be expected to be recycled. In the process I am experiencing some consternation at some rules... For example, cat 3 and 4 require the work be started within 180 days...fine for them. But there isn't a "must start in XX days" for cat 1 and 2 and I feel like there should be. Consider this example: http://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=63921667 It was cat 1 when assigned 64 days ago and hasn't even started on it (or hasn't checked in...same thing from the server's point of view). Yet it has 90 days before it'll expire... shouldn't we expect that someone who gets cat 1 and has a queue depth of < 10 days would actually start this within 10 days? And start within 30 days for cat 2, like they promised to? Also, from all appearances a cat2-4 assignment won't expire even if it takes more than 150/180/360 days unless that exponent has moved into cat 1 territory by then. So there is a grace period there... a cat 3 assignment that's only cat 2 after a year or two can keep hanging on to it as long as they checked in some progress at all in the first 180 days of the assignment... even if they checked in the next day at 0.1% and then we never saw them again, several years back. By way of example: http://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=68549329 It was a cat 4 when assigned 847 days ago (October of 2013). But because it's still not in cat 1 territory it's still there. It just won't die until 68549329 is moved into cat 1. In fact there are a somewhat surprising # of old cat 3 and 4 assignments that are more than 90 days old but are living in category 2 land right now. For some, their grace is nearly over... they're very near the cat 1 threshold and after almost 2 years they'll finally have to admit defeat and be recycled. These, for example, may be recycled in the next day or two after 621 days (and being only 88% done in all that time): M67628417, M67628777 Anyway, surprising stuff in there for me in terms of how these old things seem to linger well past their freshness date. My immediate thoughts were that cat 1 and 2 need a "start in this many days" clause added in. The lingering cat 3 and 4 stuff is weird but I know when they hit cat 1 they will recycle so I'm not terribly concerned, it's just weird. But hey, if they can manage to finish it in 18 months and squeak in just before it becomes cat 1, well, good for them, although I wonder what's happening that it's going so slow. I mean, 847 days on M68477317 and it's only 46.5% done? Should we give them until my estimate of July 2017 to finish? LOL