when do you think we will have practical quantum computers?

[ixfd64]

Well, there are small scale quantum computers, but when do you think we will have one that can factor super-massive numbers, etc?

My guess is in 5-10 years.
By the way, for every day that passes, we are one day closer to the day on which practical quantum computers are realized.

[E_tron]

...but, until that day comes silicon will be the norm.

It is going to be rough when we run up against silicon’s atomic limits...

[cheesehead]

Originally posted by ixfd64
when do you think we will have one that can factor super-massive numbers, etc?

My guess is in 5-10 years.

Oh, nowhere near that soon.

One big problem is maintaining coherence of all the qubits long enough for them to settle into the solution. IIRC, qubits lose coherence when they pick up "noise" (any disturbance) from their surroundings. The more qubits, the harder it is to isolate them all from their surroundings.

Recently I saw an article about the increasing difficulties of isolating silicon circuits from static electricity in their surroundings as those circuits get smaller.

[xilman]

Originally posted by ixfd64
Well, there are small scale quantum computers, but when do you think we will have one that can factor super-massive numbers, etc?

My guess is in 5-10 years.
By the way, for every day that passes, we are one day closer to the day on which practical quantum computers are realized.

Current state of the art is that a QC has successfully factored 15.

I was at a IEEE workshop a couple of years back where I gave a survey of integer factorization on conventional machines and made a courageous decision to predict when the first kilobit hard integer would be factored (on a conventional machine, of course). In case you are interested, my extrapolation from completed factorizations indicates it will happen at 07:15 UTC on 25th October 2015.

Another delegate spoke about quantum computers. When asked the same question by a member of the audience, he replied "about 15 to 20 years". Rather interesting that the two technologies should overlap at about the 1 kilobit level, I thought.


Paul