World Cup Soccer

[Oddball]

Originally Posted by axn

I repeat ...No. He meant 16. I will wait for a while till the "D'oh" moment kicks in

I just dug up the schedule of remaining games and found that there were only four games left. So 2^4=16. I don't follow soccer that closely, so I thought that there were more than 4 games left, and the teams would be ranked according to how many games they won. Oops

[davieddy]

It's like saying (after the draw has been made)
"If Murray meets Nadal in the final, he might stand
a snowball's chance in hell".

David

[cheesehead]

Originally Posted by axn

No. He meant 16. I will wait for a while till the "D'oh" moment kicks in

D'oh.

Right.

Not all of the 24 combinations are possible because 8 of them would require a sequence of game pairings that cannot occur.

Originally Posted by Oddball

There should be 24 combinations, not 16. If A, B, C, and D are the four teams,

Let A = Germany, B = Holland/Netherlands, C = Spain, D = Uruguay.

The pairings in the semifinals are: A & C, B & D. The winners will rank 1-2 in some order, the losers will rank 3-4 in some order. The possibilities are:

A win, B win: Final ranking is (A and B) 1-2, then (C and D) 3-4.

A win, D win: Final ranking is (A and D) 1-2, then (B and C) 3-4.

C win, B win: Final ranking is (B and C) 1-2, then (A and D) 3-4.

C win, D win: Final ranking is (C and D) 1-2, then (A and B) 3-4.

All combinations beginning with AC or CA are impossible because A and C cannot both win in the semifinal, which would be required in order for them to finish 1-2 in some order. Neither are combinations beginning with BD or DB possible, because B and D cannot both win in the semifinal.

That eliminates possible finishing orders ACBD, ACDB, BDAC, BDCA, CABD, CADB, DBAC and DBCA.

[ATH]

I looked at it like this:

There are 2 possible winners of semifinal1 times 2 possible winners of semifinal2 times 2 possible winners of the final times 2 possible winners of the bronzematch = 2^4 (4 different finals/bronzematches and for each of them 4 ways for them to turn out).

[davieddy]

Any of the 4 possible finals would be good, but the most probable
(Germany v Holland) is an especially tasty proposition.

BTW 4 = 4C2 - (Ger v Spa + Hol v Ura) = 2^2

David

[ckdo]

Originally Posted by davieddy

Any of the 4 possible finals would be good, but the most probable
(Germany v Holland) is an especially tasty proposition.

This begs for a YouTube link.

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by ckdo

This begs for a YouTube link.

Love it
I read all the comments.
The German and double Dutch ones were at least as
comprehensible as zee Englisch vuns.

Also enjoyed the clips of Ruuds Hullit and Van Nistleroy.

(I'm old enough to remember Cruyff and Netzer)

David

[davieddy]

NED 0:0 DEN

Nearly as good as the Scottish one:

Forfar 4, East Fife 5

David

[davieddy]

The octopus has tipped Spain!

[cheesehead]

So the final round pairings are Netherlands (B) & Spain (C), Germany (A) & Uruguay (D).

Only BCAD, BCDA, CBAD and CBDA remain possible, even spectators with bad vision will be able to easily distinguish the teams in the final game, and there will be a first-time champion.

Psychic octopus continues to be correct about Germany's games.

My predictions:

Watch for further exploitation of octopi (and other animals) four years from now. Watch for various human "psychics" to make claims about the relationship between octopi and soccer/football sooner than that.

Watch for the German psychic octopus to be reported to have said, "I just liked the Spanish flag more than the German flag, but the German flag more than all the other alternatives so far", just after predicting that Germany will prevail over Uruguay, then continuing, "May I have some more of that tasty Spanish stuff after this is all over?"

[ATH]

Paul the octopus had it right again with its Spain forecast, that's 6 of 6 in this world cup, which is odds 1 in 64 assuming he can't really forecast it.

"During the 2008 European Championship, he predicted 80 percent of all German games right, Munzig said."

Germany played 6 games in Euro 2008, but since they say 80% correct, I assume he only predicted 5 games and got 4 right. If we count that in he has 10 right of 11 guesses, using binomial distribution:

f(10,11,0.5) = (11! / (10! * 1!) ) * 0.5^10 * 0.5^1 = 11 * 0.5^11 = 0.537% or 1 in 186.




Other facts about the final besides we get a new 8th world champion: This is the first time an european contry wins world cup outside Europe. The score in World Cup gold is now: Europe 10 - South America 9. This is the first time Europe is leading since 1958 when Brazil won and equalized to 3-3.