Mystery Economic Theater 2010

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by imwithid

I would be hesitant to throw Japan into the mix. Although they have the highest debt to GDP ratio in the world (with one or two exceptions - they are insignificant in terms of their global impact if they were to default), only about 3% of their debt is foreign held public debt. Their external debt runs at about 35%. As a sovereign nation, with their own currency, they can always inflate their debt away by increasing the money supply beyond money demanded (not good idea considering the medium to long term), they can increase taxes or cut back on spending (they have much they can cut in their budgets) or some combination of the preceding.

The PIIGS are in a unique situation where monetary policy is shared among the EU countries. They have little to no control over interest rates and hence liquidity. They must fiscally behave within some range or bounds or else they end up like Greece who has been playing rebel prior to joining the EU.

Good points - you may be right, but my sense is that given the average age in Japan, their populace is currently undergoing a structural shift in which ever-increasing numbers of retired folks drawing down their assets leads to a net selling of Japanese government bonds. That means the government will have to begin relying on the global debt markets for an increasing share of its new debt issuance - that means that at some point they lose the ability to keep interest rates near zero, and it's game over.

Note that they cannot simply inflate their way out of this scenario, because thereby devaluing savers` assets would cause JPG bondholders to sell even faster in order to cover their expenses.

[ewmayer]

EU Bets $146 Billion in Greek Bailout Medicine Will Stop Contagion Threat: Euro-region governments are betting 110 billion euros ($146 billion) in economic medicine for Greece will be enough to inoculate the rest of their region from contagion.

Finance ministers approved the unprecedented bailout yesterday for Greece after a week that saw the country’s fiscal crisis spread to Portugal and Spain. At the same time, they refused to say how they would help other indebted nations if the need arose, calling Greece a “special case.”

The risk is that investors will shift focus to other euro nations in the absence of a clear aid plan for the 16-nation bloc’s weakest members. The extra yield investors demand to buy Portuguese debt over German bunds surged to the highest since at least 1997 and Spain’s IBEX 35 stock index fell the most in three months last week. The euro fell against the dollar today.

“I don’t think the markets will put Portugal and Spain under attack because their situation is in no way comparable to Greece,” Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday after chairing the talks. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said “Greece was a special case, because it reported special numbers, provided funny statistics.”

My Comment: I will happily take the other side of that bet, at least once the inevitable "disaster averted!" rally reaches truly ridiculous extremes ... seems like a lot of folks wagering in the currency markets are similarly skeptical about the "specialness" of Greece. As the saying goes, "the equity markets may be easily and repeatedly fooled, but the bond markets call all bluffs."

I was quite certain that despite the "tough talk" about Greece "cleaning up its own mess" etc. from European leaders - most prominently Germany`s Angela Merkel - in the end they would cave in, bail Greece out, hope the announced austerity measures would actually be implemented and that the other deep-debtor Eurozone countries will get their budgets in order in the oh-so-optimistic near future, as well. (Note however the bailout still needs to be signed off on by several nation`s legislatures). No leader wants the EMU to collapse on their watch, and as this NYT article-by-way-of-Mish notes, there is another more-immediate reason in the form of a massive interconnected web of European sovereign debt, including:

* Italy owes France $511 Billion (20% of French GDP)
* Portugal owes Spain a net a net of $58 billion
* Spain holds nearly a third of Portugal's debt
* Spain owes France $220 Billion
* Spain owes Germany $238 billion
* Spain owes the UK $114 billion

As to the many reasons it is highly unlikely the ballyhooed "Greek austerity" will come anywhere getting the country`s budget balanced, one is a deeply entrenched culture of tax evasion, as illustrated by the "case of the missing swimming pools":

Greek Wealth Is Everywhere but Tax Forms

ATHENS — In the wealthy, northern suburbs of this city, where summer temperatures often hit the high 90s, just 324 residents checked the box on their tax returns admitting that they owned pools.

Athenians declared taxes at a local office. Greek’s shadow economy represents 20 to 30 percent of its G.D.P.

So tax investigators studied satellite photos of the area — a sprawling collection of expensive villas tucked behind tall gates — and came back with a decidedly different number: 16,974 pools.

That kind of wholesale lying about assets, and other eye-popping cases that are surfacing in the news media here, points to the staggering breadth of tax dodging that has long been a way of life here.

Such evasion has played a significant role in Greece’s debt crisis, and as the country struggles to get its financial house in order, it is going after tax cheats as never before.

Various studies, including one by the Federation of Greek Industries last year, have estimated that the government may be losing as much as $30 billion a year to tax evasion — a figure that would have gone a long way to solving its debt problems.

UK: Mervyn King Tells the Unpopular Truth
Austerity Britain will hate its new Government, says King: The Governor of the Bank of England was at the centre of an electoral storm last night after saying that the austerity measures needed to tackle Britain’s budget deficit would be so unpopular that whoever wins next week would not get back into government for a generation.

The Times has also learnt that Mr King gave a further indication of the concerns in Threadneedle Street when he recently told a senior American official that the markets would take a very aggressive view if no credible plan was contained in the Queen’s Speech on May 25.

Analysts have said that without commitment to severe austerity in the first weeks of a new Government, Britain could be heading towards a sterling crisis and a boycott of the gilts market.

The Bank declined to comment on either episode last night, confirming only that Mr King met Mr Hale in a private meeting at the Bank in early March. Mr Hale later apologised for mistaking the date but did not retract the substance of his claim. Mr Hale, who runs a consultancy in Chicago, said a hung parliament would make it harder to introduce necessary austerity measures. “I’d be very bearish right now on both the British pound and on the British government bond market.”

The view was echoed by Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, who told The Times: “The concern from international investors that a new government might not have the strength or commitment to cut the deficit is very great. Not just a coalition — whoever wins.”

Mr King has kept an ultra-low profile during the election, but he has said in the past that budget deficit forecasts for the next few years are “very large” and that the new Government will have to come up with a credible plan.

There is growing concern that none of the main parties has come close to spelling out the scale of the spending cuts and tax increases needed to bring the books closer into balance.

My Comment: One wonders whether Gordon Brown - and perhaps the leaders of the other 2 major parties - might not be having a "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?" moment with respect to Mr. King`s politically inconvenient bout of truth-telling.

US: Spend, Baby,Spend!
Consumer Spending in U.S. Increased in March by the Most in Six Months: Consumer spending in the U.S. rose in March by the most in five months, pointing to a recovery that may accelerate when the economy creates more jobs.

Growing demand at retailers such as Macy’s Inc. and Starbucks Corp. boost the odds hiring will accelerate, leading to a sustainable economic rebound. Household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, may contribute more to the expansion in coming months as incomes rise. “Consumers are resilient and they’re going to do what they’ve continued to do over many business cycles,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. Inc. in New York. “As soon as they have the means, they will spend it. Consumer spending will support economic activity.”

My Comment: Suggest changing "a recovery that may accelerate when the economy creates more jobs" to "the recovery that may accelerate when an economy creates more jobs" - the latter conveys the requisite recovery-a-done-deal confidence,while acknowledging that the U.S. economy still shows no sign of any real pickup in hiring (I know,"it`s a lagging indicator", like all the other indicators which inconveniently refuse to follow the "official recovery narrative" mandated at the last party congress. By way of more useful wordply, my buddy E.O. Wilson called and asid he and Victorian polymath William Whewell would prefer "Consumers are resilient" be changed to "resumers are consilient". Which I think is eco-speak for "many are back to living beyond their means":

Because spending rose faster than incomes, the savings rate declined to 2.7 percent, the lowest level since September 2008.

[cheesehead]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

UK: Mervyn King Tells the Unpopular Truth
Austerity Britain will hate its new Government, says King: The Governor of the Bank of England was at the centre of an electoral storm last night after saying that the austerity measures needed to tackle Britain’s budget deficit would be so unpopular that whoever wins next week would not get back into government for a generation.

That's also part of the genius of the conservative think-tanks' fiscal-rhetorical policy that I've been explaining for a few years.

By carefully nurturing the myths that (a) Congress alone has been responsible for deficit budgets, (b) only liberal-policy government spending really counts, not national-security-related policy spending, and (c) only continued tax-cutting can keep us out of recession, and with disciplined use of public-discussion framing, conservatives have brilliantly maneuvered Democrats into the position of being held responsible for any national-debt-financing troubles down the line.

Never mind that Republican administrations were responsible for $7 trillion of the $10 trillion debt that Obama inherited, not to mention the ongoing built-in deficits caused by cutting taxes on the wealthy below the level for responsible financing.

(Don't forget to estimate the average household income of private holders of U.S. Treasury bonds issued to finance those built-in deficits!)

Just a work of genius, it is.

Democrats out of power for a generation: what a tasty prospect for the GOP.

What stupid opportunity-missing by Democratic strategists.

[Fusion_power]

The tax rate ranges from roughly 25% to about 50% in many nations today. Just how much can a nation siphon off the economy before significant bleeding of jobs occurs?

Lets look at history. Empires fell when the tax rate reached 30%. Rome would be a good case in point. Ancient Israel paid tax to Solomon and to the temple that totaled in the range of 25% and that was enough to collapse the economy.

Today we have Sweden with a tax rate of about 50% and many other nations in similar status. Here in the U.S. the tax rate I wind up paying between city, state, and federal taxes works out to just about 50% of my income.

And then Cheesehead comes along and says we are not being taxed enough? Hello world, did I miss something? The problem is not that taxes are too low, the problem is that government is spending TOO MUCH!!!!

This should give ewmayer something to growl about.

DarJones

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

* Italy owes France $511 Billion (20% of French GDP)
* Portugal owes Spain a net a net of $58 billion
* Spain holds nearly a third of Portugal's debt
* Spain owes France $220 Billion
* Spain owes Germany $238 billion
* Spain owes the UK $114 billion

The German daily Die Welt does similar basic multiple-dominoes math and arrives at a discomfiting conclusion:

Krisenstaaten werden zur Billionen-Euro-Gefahr: Griechenland wird nach dem Willen der EU-Länder gerettet. Aber was wäre eigentlich, wenn weitere Krisenstaaten wie Portugal, Spanien, Irland und Italien bald Hilfe benötigen? WELT ONLINE hat nachgerechnet. Das beklemmende Ergebnis: So viel Geld wird die Währungsunion sicher nicht aufbringen können.

My translation - note the German "billion" is equivalent to the English trillion, since like most of continental Europe (and pre-1974 UK) the Germans use the long scale, i.e. the thousandfold-multiples-sequence is tausend (thousand), millione, milliarde (English billion), billione (English trillion), billiarde (sounds like snooker, but = English quadrillion), trillione (English quintillion), etc:

Crisis nations are a Trillion-Euro-Danger: The EU nations have decided to rescue Greece. But what would happen if further crisis nations such as Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy soon were to need help? WELT ONLINE has done the math. The worrying result: That would require more aid than the EMU is capable of providing.

Related snips and snails: When I see the phrase "Griechische Sparmaßnahmen" (Greek austerity measures) in German-language publications, I keep having to double-check to make sure the text doesn`t read "Griechische Spaßmaßnahmen" (Greek joke measures).

And a good friend of mine opined yesterday while we we discussing the Greek bailout that in his opinion the various sovereign debt crises burning across the eurozone spell the death knell of generous cradle-to-grave-style European socialism. Comments?

-----------------------------------------

A related commentary (again my translation) takes the ECB to task for abandoning its principles and announcing it will accept Greek junk-rated bonds as loan collateral:

Unforgivable, how the ECB has sacrificed its principles: It appears like a marginal note in the rescue package: The European Central Bank (ECB) will accept Greek government bonds as "collateral". In other words, the same paper which has already been graded as "junk" by ratings agencies. This makes it obvious even to a layperson, that this is the greatest-ever fall from grace of the central bank.

We have gotten used to the fact that the EU-Commission is incapable of holding to the terms of the EMU stability and growth pact. We shall apparently also have to come to terms with the fact that the German finance minister said in January that the International Monetary Fund has no business in the Euro-Zone, and four months later was forced to eat his words. But we should not come to terms with what happened yesterday: The European Central Bank (ECB), with a view toward Greece, announced without further comment that it would henceforth also accept as collateral Greek government bonds graded as "junk" by ratings agencies.

What sounds at first like a technical detail, is in fact a fall from grace: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has in effect said to the world, that his word is worthless in case of a deep crisis. As late as beginning of April Trichet assured that there would be no exceptions made for countries when it came to collateral rules But now the central bank has in effect given deficit violators a free pass. With that, it has lost its innocence.

The consequences are dramatic. How will the ECB henceforth justify raising interest rates to fight inflation, if at the same time doing so endangers the Greece rescue effort? The bank is also the same institution, which is supposed to protect the savings of the EU citizens, by guaranteeing the stability of the currency. If it loses credibility in this respect, people will stop planning for the long term. But when the ECB president abandons many of the bank`s basic principles within a matter of weeks, how then should the Euro still be stable over the coming decades?

An answer to these questions has not been forthcoming from Europe`s politicians and central bankers. They extinguished the Greek blaze, well aware that there is not enough water for Spain, Portugal or Italy in addition. And in this crisis they have thereby sacrificed the credibility of nearly all EMU institutions,from the commission to the central bank. That is the true cost of the Greek rescue.

-----------------------------------------

Greecefire Update:

German lawmaker called for an “orderly insolvency” of European states: German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition stepped up calls for allowing the “orderly” default of euro-region member states to avoid any repeat of the Greek fiscal crisis.

Greek Public "Workers" Do What They Do Best: Avoid Working

Greek Workers Occupy Acropolis, Shut Hospitals as Budget Protests Escalate: Greek government workers shut down schools and hospitals and disrupted flights as demonstrators occupied the Acropolis in an escalation of protests against 30 billion euros ($40 billion) of additional wage cuts and tax increases unveiled this week.

The ADEDY union federation, which represents more than 500,000 civil servants having their pensions and pay slashed under measures announced May 2 by Prime Minister George Papandreou, will hold a rally at midday joined by striking teachers. A general strike, the third this year, is planned for tomorrow, with private-sector workers due to participate.

“Protests will increase,” said Spyros Papaspyros, the head of ADEDY. “Opting for the easy path of cutting wages and pensions can’t be accepted.”

My Comment: Decades of politicians buying votes via "the easy path" of raising public-sector wages and pensions until it bankrupted the nation, on the other hand - that was perfectly acceptable for Spyros and his legions of parasitic public-sector pals.

-----------------------------------------

Greenspan: Mere Mortals Must Not Question the All-Knowing One:

The Huffington Post features some just-declassified December 2004 FOMC minutes showing that there were top Fed officials already warning of a housing bubble then. Greenspan`s explanation for why such anti-Ponzinomical dissenting views must be kept secret is very telling:

As top Federal Reserve officials debated whether there was a housing bubble and what to do about it, then-Chairman Alan Greenspan argued that the dissent should be kept secret so that the Fed wouldn't lose control of the debate to people less well-informed than themselves.

"We run the risk, by laying out the pros and cons of a particular argument, of inducing people to join in on the debate, and in this regard it is possible to lose control of a process that only we fully understand," Greenspan said, according to the transcripts of a March 2004 meeting.

At the same meeting, a Federal Reserve bank president from Atlanta, Jack Guynn, warned that "a number of folks are expressing growing concern about potential overbuilding and worrisome speculation in the real estate markets, especially in Florida. Entire condo projects and upscale residential lots are being pre-sold before any construction, with buyers freely admitting that they have no intention of occupying the units or building on the land but rather are counting on 'flipping' the properties--selling them quickly at higher prices."

Had Guynn's warning been heeded and the housing market cooled, the financial collapse of 2008 could have been avoided. But his comment was kept secret until Friday, when the central bank released the transcripts of Federal Open Market Committee meetings for 2004 and CalculatedRisk spotted it. The transcripts for 2005 to the present are still secret.

"The substantial run-up in house prices, which we have followed in Florida and also see in the populous Northeast and West Coast of the United States, may be at least partially attributable to unusually low mortgage rates influenced by our very accommodative policy," Guynn warned.

But when the Fed released contemporaneous minutes of the meeting, the bank downplayed Guynn's concerns.

"Reports from some contacts suggested that speculative forces might be boosting housing demand in some parts of the country, with concomitant effects on prices, suggesting the possibility that house prices might be moving into the high end of the range that could be consistent with fundamentals," reads the minutes, which were released to the public several weeks after the meeting.

[Andi47]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Related snips and snails: When I see the phrase "Griechische Sparmaßnahmen" (Greek austerity measures) in German-language publications, I keep having to double-check to make sure the text doesn`t read "Griechische Spaßmaßnahmen" (Greek joke measures).

Greek people are on general strike today, so the Greek measures are definitely not joke measures.

BTW: Just as I type this posting, I hear in the news in Radio Ö3, that Greece also suffers from high corruption - the Greek government loses several billion € per year (I only heard the figure "with one ear" - was it € 90 billion??) by corruption and tax evasion (is this the right word for German "Steuerhinterziehung"?).

[S485122]

Originally Posted by Fusion_power

The tax rate ranges from roughly 25% to about 50% in many nations today. Just how much can a nation siphon off the economy before significant bleeding of jobs occurs?

Lets look at history. Empires fell when the tax rate reached 30%. Rome would be a good case in point. Ancient Israel paid tax to Solomon and to the temple that totaled in the range of 25% and that was enough to collapse the economy.

...

DarJones

You are trying to use history as an argument without taking the whole picture into account. Infrastructure and other services have hugely increased since antiquity.

I will agree that in many countries the incomes from work are heavily taxed. On the other hand corporations are almost tax free : in Belgium, thanks to some very imaginative legislation, the banks pay less than 5% tax on their profits. (Corporations are allowed to deduct from their taxable profits, the fictional interest their capital could produce on the market.) Of course it is easier to collect taxes from the revenues from work. On what basis are some kind of revenues tax free ? Doesn't a shareholder use the collective infrastructure ?

Jacob

[S485122]

Originally Posted by Andi47

BTW: Just as I type this posting, I hear in the news in Radio Ö3, that Greece also suffers from high corruption - the Greek government loses several billion € per year (I only heard the figure "with one ear" - was it € 90 billion??) by corruption and tax evasion (is this the right word for German "Steuerhinterziehung"?).

Greek Wealth Is Everywhere but Tax Forms

In the wealthy, northern suburbs of this city, where summer temperatures often hit the high 90s, just 324 residents checked the box on their tax returns admitting that they owned pools.
So tax investigators studied satellite photos of the area — a sprawling collection of expensive villas tucked behind tall gates — and came back with a decidedly different number: 16,974 pools.

Sorry if this news item was already posted...

Jacob

[S485122]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

And a good friend of mine opined yesterday while we we discussing the Greek bailout that in his opinion the various sovereign debt crises burning across the eurozone spell the death knell of generous cradle-to-grave-style European socialism. Comments?

I would hope it would put an end to the fallacy that the financial economy produces wealth. The shift of redistribution of the produced wealth in the last 30 years is the problem. From a post published earlier :

In the prosperity years of 1946 to 1979, dividends constituted 23 percent of profits. From 1980 to 2008, they constituted 46 percent.

English is not the same everywhere : your friend speaks about socialism in Europe ! Socialism ? In Europe ? The divide between rich and poor increases steadily, just as it does everywhere (between rich and poor countries, between the rich and the poor in each country.) Banks were bailed out by the states by borrowing from ... the banks ! This has nothing to do with socialism.

There are some people and political parties claiming to be socialist, in reality they are just as market oriented as the rest. (In continental Europe we would say "liberal", in the USA "libertarian" would be more appropriate. The difference being that the European liberals have a vested interest in the continuation of a big government. [And what better example of that than Belgium, 11 million people, 7 parliaments and governments : European, federal, 2 regional, 2 based on language community and one regional-language community !])

Jacob

[cheesehead]

Originally Posted by Fusion_power

The tax rate ranges from roughly 25% to about 50% in many nations today.

Marginal? Total? Individual? Corporate? Which "many nations"? Links to actual figures?

Just how much can a nation siphon off the economy before significant bleeding of jobs occurs?

I advocate returning US tax rates to what they were during the longest economic expansion in U.S. history!

Originally Posted by http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990s_United_States_boom

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the 1990s was the longest economic expansion in the history of the United States, lasting exactly ten years from March 1991 to March 2001.

How many jobs were being "bled" then?

We also had balanced federal budgets!

How about addressing this example squarely?

Originally Posted by Fusion_power

Lets look at history.

Yes, let's: March 1991 to March 2001

Rome would be a good case in point. Ancient Israel

/* begin sarcasm */ Yep, ancient Israel's and the Roman Empire's economies are always cited in economic texts as illustrative parallels to 20/21st-century economies, aren't they?

Today we have Sweden with a tax rate of about 50%

Who can forget the Great Fall of the Swedish Empire within our lifetimes?? /* end sarcasm */

The problem is not that taxes are too low, the problem is that government is spending TOO MUCH!!!!

Then why was your post devoted to railing against taxes, without a single example of too-much spending?

How much do you want to cut Social Security and other entitlements? (If not them, what?) Details, please!

Did you support or oppose the Medicare cuts included in the recent health care bill?

How do you propose to keep the next Republican administration from engaging in trillion-dollar military adventurism based on lies? Are you on public record as having opposed the past Republican administration's trillion-dollar military adventure in Iraq, as I am? If not, which other trillion-dollar, or at least multi-hundred-billion-dollar, expenditure(s) are you on record as having opposed?

[ewmayer]

Greeks Protests Over Bailout Leaves Three Dead as Bank Building Set Alight: Greek demonstrations against government austerity measures turned deadly when three people were killed after protesters set fire to a bank in central Athens.

Fire officials at the scene said they discovered three bodies in the building, according to a fire-department statement sent by text message today. The building, located near the Greek parliament, housed a branch of Marfin Egnatia Bank SA. At least three more buildings were set on fire and 30 fire trucks and 80 firefighters battled the blazes, fire officials said.
...
Today’s general strike, the third this year, follows Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s announcement of a second set of wage cuts for public workers, a three-year freeze on pensions and a second increase this year in sales taxes and the price of fuel, alcohol and tobacco in return for a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Trade union groups have called the austerity measures “savage.”

“These measures are unjust and should be paid for by those politicians over the past 30 years who have led us here,” said Barbara Tzerbou, 37, a lawyer who traveled to central Athens with her brother to participate in her first-ever protest. Papandreou “had choices; we didn’t need to get as far as the IMF,” she said.

My Comment: When asked what other viable choices Mr. Papandreou had for reining in the country`s soaring budget deficit, Ms. Tzerbou replied, "He could have cut, um, all the waste, fraud and abuse, and stuff, and simply not paid the greedy bond speculators who caused all the trouble. And he should have demanded war reparations from the Germans ... yes, that`s it, those fat smug Mercedes-driving sausage eaters should pay for what the Nazis did to us."

Seriously. there seems to be a ridiculous amount of blame-someone-else going on in Greece and in the wider EMU with respect to the crisis: Greek "workers" (and especially with respect to the public-sector ones, I use the term very loosely) blame "the politicians" ... the politicians blame tax evaders (to whom they appear to have turned a blind eye for decades, perhaps because many of the pols live in those now-famous norther Athens suburbs where everyone swims but no one owns a swimming pool) and "bond speculators" ... frugal Eurozone nations blame the free-spending ones ... free-spending Eurozone nations blame the frugal ones for causing "trade imbalances", etc.

Greek `Bush Fire' Contagion Spurs Surge in Portuguese, Spanish Debt Swaps: Contagion from the Greek deficit crisis swept through European credit markets, triggering a surge in the cost of insuring European banks against default to a one- year high and driving Spanish and Portuguese debt swaps wider.

It's shaping up to be a long, hot "summer of our discontent" in the Eurozone.