Predict M48... - Page 35

cheesehead · 2012-03-04, 02:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prime95

Somehow my guess of 40% likely to be prime became 100%. Very curious.

That's what happens when the QM probability function collapses. Spooky action at a distance.

davieddy · 2012-03-07, 11:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by aketilander

A rough estimation of exptected new primes between 79.3M and 596M is 5.384
I used the this formula:

"1 chance in ( p / ( (b-1) x 1.803 )) of being prime"

from

http://mersennewiki.org/index.php/GI...a_prime_number

With negligible LL-testing done, a simpler and more authorative
estimate is (log 596 - log 79.3)/log 1.476 = 5.18

Your formula probably overestimated because it assumes
P-1 has been done.

Similarly (log 79.3 - log 59.4)/ log 1.476 = 0.742
whereas the "classic summary" gives 0.391 + 0.356 = 0.747

David

@ Mods: please rescind my posting limit.
I have accumulated a considerable backlog of posts
demanding contentful reply.

aketilander · 2012-03-07, 16:21

Thanks Davieddy for the clarification! I just did a rough estimation. Thanks for clarifying the matters.

davieddy · 2012-03-07, 19:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by aketilander

Thanks Davieddy for the clarification! I just did a rough estimation. Thanks for clarifying the matters.

No Probs.
I never intentionally muddy the waters

David

Dubslow · 2012-03-07, 19:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by davieddy

No Probs.
I never intentionally muddy the waters

David

Now you're just asking for trouble

davieddy · 2012-03-07, 19:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dubslow

Now you're just asking for trouble

David

LaurV · 2012-03-13, 18:22

Why should we need a M48 ?!?!
We already know too many mersenne primes, 47 of them, and we only know 46 primes with over a million digits. So, we first must find a prime with more then a million digits...
To equate the score...

davieddy · 2012-03-14, 03:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by LaurV

Why should we need a M48 ?!?!
We already know too many mersenne primes, 47 of them, and we only know 46 primes with over a million digits. So, we first must find a prime with more then a million digits...
To equate the score...

Any more of this numerology and I'll report you to the dreaded Silverperson.

Batalov · 2012-03-14, 05:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by LaurV

Why should we need a M48 ?!?!
We already know too many mersenne primes, 47 of them, and we only know 46 primes with over a million digits. So, we first must find a prime with more then a million digits...
To equate the score...

Don't you worry for a second. The collective "we" will definitely do that first.
(I have a logarithmic ruler in my hand and I am no afraid to use it! Stay back!)

davieddy · 2012-03-14, 07:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Batalov

(I have a logarithmic ruler in my hand and I am no afraid to use it! Stay back!)

Mine is 6 inches, but I don't use it as a rule.

davieddy · 2012-03-21, 12:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by aketilander

So Expected new primes < 79.3M

2012-01-31 1.131

2012-03-21 1.107
decrease = .024
days = 50 (Yep. Remembered the leap year

)

Expected days to next prime = 50/.024 = 2083.

David

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2012-03-07, 16:21	#377
aketilander "Åke Tilander" Apr 2011 Sandviken, Sweden 2·283 Posts	Thanks Davieddy for the clarification! I just did a rough estimation. Thanks for clarifying the matters.

2012-03-13, 18:22	#381
LaurV Romulan Interpreter Jun 2011 Thailand 25BF₁₆ Posts	Why should we need a M48 ?!?! We already know too many mersenne primes, 47 of them, and we only know 46 primes with over a million digits. So, we first must find a prime with more then a million digits... To equate the score...