Predict M48... - Page 34

Dubslow · 2012-01-07, 05:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dubslow

Lol I was reading the guesses at the beginning of this thread, and given the excellent perception of my hindsight, I laughed :)
But... 49.6M<M48<50.1M, in May of 2012. If you'll excuse my rather ambiguous notation. (Woe that is Indo-European languages! Woe that is Mersenne, that his last initial is the same as Million!)

Screw this. >60M in 2013. (Or found on a DC.)

aketilander · 2012-01-30, 07:26

A summary of Davieddy's and others post above:

2001-04 we expected 1.64 (found 2)
2004-07 we expected 1.28 (found 4)
2007-10 we expected 0.69 (found 3)

2008-10-25 1.747
2008-12-03 1.719
2009-10-25 1.528
2010-05-11 1.420
2010-10-25 1.342
2010-11-22 1.328
2010-12-25 1.314
2011-01-11 1.306
2011-02-05 1.295
2011-03-07 1.281
2011-05-26 1.244
2011-06-22 1.231
2011-07-15 1.221 Expected time to next prime is 2174 days
2011-09-10 1.195 Expected time to next prime is 2192 days
2011-10-16 1.177 Expected time to next prime is 2000 days
2011-12-20 1.149 Expected time to next prime is 2320 days

aketilander · 2012-01-30, 07:37

It would also be very nice if anyone could give a figure of the number of expected new primes < 596M. 596M is the largest exponent that can presently be handled by the current version of prime95.

Dubslow · 2012-01-31, 00:27

Davieddy got at least some of his stats from http://mersenne.org/report_classic/ .
I'm sure someone around here know the formula for the expected primes.

aketilander · 2012-01-31, 06:37

So Expected new primes < 79.3M

2012-01-31 1.131

aketilander · 2012-01-31, 12:48

A rough estimation of exptected new primes between 79.3M and 596M is 5.384 so

Expected new primes < 596M is

6.515

I used the this formula:

"1 chance in ( p / ( (b-1) x 1.803 )) of being prime"

from

http://mersennewiki.org/index.php/GI...a_prime_number

Uncwilly · 2012-03-03, 03:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by ixfd64

Eliminating the result with the error code, that leaves M55253827. Unless the server completely removed the possible prime, then I think we have the candidate.

So it seems that petrw1 came about as close as anyone.
On 1/24/2011 he predicted 55,555,543 would be found prime on 5/5/2012. This is the first prediction in the future from yesterday's date.

As previously noted: davar55 predicted 12/31/2011 (on 12/25/2010) and davieddy predicted 1/1/2012

Christenson is also close 55,000,000 being found on 11/11/2011 (predicted 6/27/2011)

We were 2 days from having a gap of the average length plus 2.5 std dev.
1054 days.

Christenson · 2012-03-03, 04:04

Before you give me credit, let the DC go through...... but

!

Prime95 · 2012-03-03, 04:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

So it seems that petrw1 came about as close as anyone.

Somehow my guess of 40% likely to be prime became 100%. Very curious.

bcp19 · 2012-03-03, 04:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prime95

Somehow my guess of 40% likely to be prime became 100%. Very curious.

Didn't you know that once it's posted to the forum, it becomes gospel?

Uncwilly · 2012-03-03, 05:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prime95

Somehow my guess of 40% likely to be prime became 100%. Very curious.

This thread is for fun only.

It is not a press announcement.

2012-01-30, 07:26	#365
aketilander "Åke Tilander" Apr 2011 Sandviken, Sweden 2·283 Posts	Expected new primes < 79.3M A summary of Davieddy's and others post above: 2001-04 we expected 1.64 (found 2) 2004-07 we expected 1.28 (found 4) 2007-10 we expected 0.69 (found 3) 2008-10-25 1.747 2008-12-03 1.719 2009-10-25 1.528 2010-05-11 1.420 2010-10-25 1.342 2010-11-22 1.328 2010-12-25 1.314 2011-01-11 1.306 2011-02-05 1.295 2011-03-07 1.281 2011-05-26 1.244 2011-06-22 1.231 2011-07-15 1.221 Expected time to next prime is 2174 days 2011-09-10 1.195 Expected time to next prime is 2192 days 2011-10-16 1.177 Expected time to next prime is 2000 days 2011-12-20 1.149 Expected time to next prime is 2320 days

2012-01-30, 07:37	#366
aketilander "Åke Tilander" Apr 2011 Sandviken, Sweden 2·283 Posts	Expected new primes < 596M ? It would also be very nice if anyone could give a figure of the number of expected new primes < 596M. 596M is the largest exponent that can presently be handled by the current version of prime95.

2012-01-31, 06:37	#368
aketilander "Åke Tilander" Apr 2011 Sandviken, Sweden 2×283 Posts	Expected new primes < 79.3M So Expected new primes < 79.3M 2012-01-31 1.131

2012-01-31, 12:48	#369
aketilander "Åke Tilander" Apr 2011 Sandviken, Sweden 2·283 Posts	Expected new primes < 596M A rough estimation of exptected new primes between 79.3M and 596M is 5.384 so Expected new primes < 596M is 6.515 I used the this formula: "1 chance in ( p / ( (b-1) x 1.803 )) of being prime" from http://mersennewiki.org/index.php/GI...a_prime_number

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2012-01-31, 00:27	#367
Dubslow Basketry That Evening! "Bunslow the Bold" Jun 2011 40<A<43 -89<O<-88 16065₈ Posts	Davieddy got at least some of his stats from http://mersenne.org/report_classic/ . I'm sure someone around here know the formula for the expected primes.

2012-03-03, 04:04	#371
Christenson Dec 2010 Monticello 1795₁₀ Posts	Before you give me credit, let the DC go through...... but !