Econ 2009

[only_human]

Another Superbowl was called Hyundai Assurance which says "buy a car from Hyundai, and if you lose your job in the next 12 months, return it with no further obligation and no black marks on your credit record."
Restrictions apply (of course) but basically if you buy or lease a Hyundai and in the first year end up having it returned due to

• Involuntary unemployment
• Physical disability
• Loss of driver's license due to medical impairment
• International employment transfer
• Self-employed personal bankruptcy
• Accidental death

-- they will accept up to a $7500 loss. Above $7500, they subtract $7500 and only require the difference above that (and still let you walk away without further financial obligation and with your credit intact)

This sounds like a nice offer and certainly is responsive to the current economic climate. It's not often these days that someone promises not to step on your neck after you've been knocked down, lost your job, lost your car and just about everything else.

[R.D. Silverman]

Originally Posted by cheesehead

"ABC News: Iceland's Warning to the World

After Economic Collapse Island Nation Experiencing Political Unrest And Protest"

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=6784835

I am waiting for people, en masse, to start defaulting on their credit
card debt. I can feel their attitude:

I am out of work because of banker/investor greed? I have lost half of
my retirement funds while bankers are still getting large bonuses?

Then screw them.........

[ewmayer]

Ford sales plunge 39%: January sales tumble more than expected at Ford, as battered auto industry is poised for worst month in more than 25 years.


GM offers buyouts to all hourly workers: GM follows move by Chrysler to further cut labor costs, offering its factory workers chance to cash out.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Motors is offering buyouts to virtually all of its remaining hourly workers, becoming the latest automaker to try to cut labor costs by giving nervous workers an incentive to leave the company.

The move follows a similar move by Chrysler LLC, which made an offer to its hourly workers on Monday.

The GM offer, which takes effect Friday, is less lucrative than the deal proposed by Chrysler, or even offers that GM has made to its hourly staff in the past. The automaker will give most of its 62,000 U.S. hourly workers $20,000, as well as a voucher good towards the purchase of a GM car worth $25,000.

In the past, GM offered between $45,000 to $62,500 to workers to retire early, and $140,000 to employees who left the company and agreed to give up post-retirement health care coverage. Those offers were all cash.

Chrysler's offer is for to $50,000 to virtually all of its 27,000 U.S. hourly workers, along with a voucher good for up to $25,000 on the purchase of a vehicle.

"Given our financial situation, we feel this is a responsible," said Sherrie Childers Arb, a GM spokeswoman. She said the company has not set a target for how many workers it wants or expects to take the offer.

The UAW agreed last week to eliminate a so-called "jobs bank" at GM as well as at Chrysler and Ford. The jobs bank had provided near full pay to UAW members whose positions were eliminated.

Childers Arb said the company believes a significant number of workers will take the offer, even if they had turned down previous, more generous offers, especially with the changes in their contract and the less certain outlook for GM.

My Comment: Now, for a worker in his 50s who still has several decades of living which will require some kind of pension income and health coverage this might seem like a bad deal. But if folks taking the buyout offers do the prudent thing and invest the money in the stock market, figure 8% gain per year ... after all, we all know that over the long haul, nothing beats the stock market in terms of making your money grow. Except real estate, that is.

Latin America Update:

Brazil's Industrial Production Plunges 14.5% in December, Most in 17 Years: Brazil’s industrial output fell the most in at least 17 years as companies across the country slashed production to adjust to plunging demand.

Factory production declined 14.5 percent in December from the year-ago month, the biggest decline since the statistics agency began tracking annual output in 1992. The drop exceeded all 22 forecasts in Bloomberg survey of economists. Output fell a revised 6.4 percent in November.

“If this number doesn’t take your breath away, I don’t know what would,” said Tony Volpon, chief strategist at CM Capital brokerage in Sao Paulo. “There are really few adjectives to describe just how bad the December number was.”

My Comment: ...And even fewer adjectives one can use in polite company.

Economists covering Brazil expect economic growth of 1.8 percent in 2009, the slowest since 2003, when the economy grew 1.2 percent, according to the median forecast in a central bank survey published yesterday. Finance Minister Guido Mantega last night said he expects positive growth this year. He didn’t provide a forecast.

My Comment: Yeah, ya wish ... those forecasts are going to prove so far off the mark as to be beyond ludicrous. Or better, "There are really few adjectives to describe just how bad these forecasts will turn out to be."


Ramirez Pumps Cash for Chavez as $40 Crude Imperils Venezuelan Oil Output: Rafael Ramirez, president of Petroleos de Venezuela SA, takes the stage at a stadium packed with thousands of beneficiaries of the state oil company’s schools and health clinics, known as missions.

Ramirez, who’s also the country’s oil minister, supplied his government with $34 billion in royalties and taxes in the first nine months of 2008, more than half the national budget. Such funds have enabled Chavez to provide education, health care and low-cost food for what he terms the “Bolivarian Revolution.”

As Chavez drains cash from PDVSA, as his company is known, the Western Hemisphere’s biggest petroleum exporter is falling behind on investment and output targets, said Jorge Pinon, an energy fellow at the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. With crude down 73 percent from a July 11 peak of $147.27 a barrel, Ramirez will have to further trim oilfield spending to maintain payments to his boss, Pinon said.

“He is willing to compromise PDVSA’s role on behalf of the political mission of the state,” Pinon said.

Ramirez declined two written requests for an interview. Chavez wasn’t immediately available to comment, said an official in the presidential press office who declined to give her name because she isn’t an authorized spokeswoman.

Venezuela’s 2009 budget is based on an oil price of $60 a barrel. Crude fell $1.60 to $40.08 a barrel in New York yesterday.

My Comment: You guys are so screwed ... your pal Ahmadinejad in Iran finds himself in similar straits, as does would-be petro-potentate Putin of Russia. (Yeah, I know Medvedev is nominally the president, but we all know who *really* runs Russia, and he goes by the nickname "Big bad Daddy Vladdy").


Norway Oil Fund Feeling the Chill:

Norway Oil Fund Losses in Lehman Shares Exacerbate Kingdom's Worst Return: Every weekday when he’s in Oslo, Yngve Slyngstad takes the elevator to his office at Norway’s central bank, logs on to his computer and checks about $300 billion of international investments.

It’s made miserable reading since January 2008, when Slyngstad became chief executive officer of the Government Pension Fund-Global, the world’s third-largest sovereign wealth pool.

Built on the oil revenue that’s transformed Norway into one of the richest and best places to live on the planet, the fund lost 14.5 percent of its value through September. The third quarter was the worst in its 18-year history.

"Fine for Littering", UK Style

Britons Turn to Cat Litter as Cheap Way to Grit Snowy Streets, Tesco Says: Britons struggling to contend with a recession and the country’s worst winter storm since 1991 are turning to cat litter as a cheap way of gritting snowy streets, according to Tesco Plc, the U.K.’s largest retailer.

Cat litter sales climbed 30 percent yesterday compared with the same day last week, Tesco said today by e-mail. The retailer is tripling supplies to cope with demand after Britain was covered in as much as 28 centimeters (11 inches) of snow.

Tesco lightweight cat litter, which sells for around 1.16 pounds ($1.65) per 10 liter bag, is also suitable for preventing slippage on icy roads. U.K. sales can rise by as much as 70 percent compared with a normal week, according to the retailer.

My Comment: I`m sure it`s more environmentally friendly than road salt ... and I expect winter-loving outdoor cats (if there exist any such mythical beasts) enjoy it, as well: "Pooping in a winter wonderland", as it were.

[ewmayer]

Obama Orders $500,000 Pay Cap for Executives at Companies Getting Most Aid: President Barack Obama called bonus payouts at banks getting rescue funds “shameful” as he and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced the government will require financial companies getting aid in the future to cap compensation of top officials at $500,000 a year.

Reacting to public outcry over bonuses paid to bankers getting government bailout money, the administration is imposing conditions that would force greater transparency for expenses such as corporate jets, office renovations, entertainment and holiday parties, and restrict executives’ severance pay.

While pay would be limited, there are provisions that would allow additional compensation in the form of restricted stock that can’t be sold until taxpayers have been paid back with interest. Senior executive compensation plans also must be submitted to a non-binding shareholder resolution.

The compensation cap may be waived for companies getting aid through what the administration terms “generally available capital access programs,” through full public disclosure and submission of a resolution to shareholders if requested.

Companies also must have in place provisions to reclaim, or “claw back,” bonuses and incentives from the top 25 senior executives if they are found to engage in deceptive practices.

House Republican Leader John Boehner said he “applauds” Obama’s executive pay proposals.

“If anyone is looking for the taxpayer to help bail their company out, these type of executive pay caps are appropriate,” Boehner said today.

Not Retroactive

The rules won’t be applied retroactively to companies that already have received aid from the Treasury Department through the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program fund.

My Comment: Long-overdue and much-needed - but too bad they can`t make it retroactive. Hank Paulson made sure to take good care of his bankster buddies last year when proposing the TARP and rushing it through congress. Of course, the mere fact that top management will get to keep their jobs is upsetting to many.


Summers Warns Deflation Is `Real Risk' for U.S., Stimulus Package Needed: White House economics director Lawrence Summers urged swift passage of a stimulus bill and pledged further taxpayer funds for major banks, warning that the economy is in danger of sustained declines in consumer prices.

My Comment: Deflation is more than a risk, deflation is in fact here and has been for over a year, first in the form of plummeting home prices, then in the prices of equity markets, then in commodities and raw materials, and now in just about everything except gold and NFL ticket prices. Much of that deflation is a painful-but-long-overdue correction of e.g. housing and stock prices back toward historical means relative to incomes and earnings - the real danger, as Summers is keenly aware of, is a self-reinforcing deflationary spiral, i.e. an overcorrection.


Mexico Carries Out `Extraordinary' Intervention After Peso Hits Record Low: Mexico’s central bank is buying pesos in the foreign-exchange market after the currency plunged to a record low today, the bank’s press office said.

The central bank stepped into the market after the peso tumbled to a record low for a fourth straight day. The peso has weakened 32 percent against the dollar over the past six months, the worst performance among the world’s major currencies, on concern the economy will be throttled by the recession in the U.S., the buyer of about 80 percent of Mexico’s exports.

My Comment: I wonder to what extent the Peso's plunge is due not to declining exports to the U.s. but rather to the millions of Mexican migrants (legal and illegal) who have been sending billions of dollars back home from their work in the U.S. but whose jobs are now vanishing at a frightening rate.

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Useful as those cash-4-gold-style services are for turning one`s jewelry into quick cash, the scam potential here strikes me as massive: you`re basically sending them your jewelry and trusting them to be honest about the weight and carat numbers. Sure, you could preweigh your bling using a jeweler`s scale and carefully document the carat-age of the various items, but what percentage of customers do you think actually do that? And the few who do and then complain to cash4gold (or similar outfit) that the weight stated by the melter-downer was lower than they recorded, you just say "sorry - our bad" and make up the difference.

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner:

Consumerist.com | Confessions of a Cash4Gold Employee

[only_human]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

My Comment: I wonder to what extent the Peso's plunge is due not to declining exports to the U.s. but rather to the millions of Mexican migrants (legal and illegal) who have been sending billions of dollars back home from their work in the U.S. but whose jobs are now vanishing at a frightening rate.

The Central Bank of Mexico tracks this but I haven't looked at it much. http://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInterne...CE81&locale=en I see a drop in November and December. I didn't compare the previous year because I was not sure what data I was looking at when I attempted to do so. The following article thinks that the strong dollar is encouraging more remittances: Strong dollar means Mexico migrants send more home AP Dec 12, 2008

[only_human]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner:

Consumerist.com | Confessions of a Cash4Gold Employee

A Los Angeles Times article reader comment lays it out thus:

Posted by: Johnny Carson | January 30, 2009 at 12:54 PM

has nobody read the cash4gold scam description yet?

here's the original cockeyed article:
http://www.cockeyed.com/citizen/goldkit/cheat.shtml

which got picked up by consumerist:
http://consumerist.com/5059452/how-t...f-by-cash4gold

here's an exposé by a former employee, confirming the scam:
http://www.complaintsboard.com/compl...9.html#c181304

and here's cash4gold's attempt to bribe cockeyed:
http://www.cockeyed.com/citizen/gold...putation.shtml

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/tech....html#comments
I'm thinking that they bought themselves too much attention with their Superbowl ad.

[garo]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner:

Ernst, is your middle name Mish?

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by garo

Ernst, is your middle name Mish?

Did he have a piece on the cah4gold scam-o-rama, as well? In my case a co-worker and I happened to be discussing the Super Bowl Ads on Monday morning, and he mentioned that the cash4gold business "must be a huge scam" ... that planted the seed, and then yesterday I saw a link to the Consumerist piece on one of the Yahoo finance flameBoards. Or are you referring to my preternatural powers of prognostication? ;)

--------------------

Jobless Claims in U.S. Soar, Productivity Rises as Companies Slash Workers: The number of Americans filing first- time jobless claims reached a 26-year high and companies squeezed more productivity out of their remaining staff, underscoring the deepening deterioration in the labor market.

Initial applications for unemployment benefits climbed more than forecast to 626,000 last week, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. Productivity, a measure of employee output per hour, rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in October to December as employers cut 1.5 million from payrolls and slashed working hours by the most since 1975, the department said.

“It’s astonishing how quickly American businesses are laying people off,” Roger Kubarych, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Global Research in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “They’ve learned that they have probably had too much staff for the kind of economy they foresee and they’re laying people off left and right.”

The jobless-claims figures may foreshadow a steeper slide in payrolls in tomorrow’s January employment report. The losses threaten to exacerbate the slump in consumer spending and risk further personal bankruptcies and loan defaults.

...

A separate Commerce Department report today showed that orders placed with U.S. factories fell for a fifth month in December as domestic and international demand crumbled. Bookings tumbled 3.9 percent, more than forecast, after a 6.5 percent drop in November. Excluding transportation equipment such as cars and aircraft, orders fell 4.4 percent after a 6 percent decrease.

My Comment: That bodes ill for the mythical "2009 second-half recovery" forecast by so many "experts".


Fannie Mae Will Drop Some Credit-Score Rules to Break Refinancing `Logjam': Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company under U.S. government control, will loosen rules for homeowners seeking to lower their loan payments by refinancing.

Fannie Mae will drop some credit-score requirements, reduce income-documentation standards and waive the need for appraisals in some cases, according to a notice yesterday to lenders posted on the Washington-based company’s Web site. The changes apply to loans that the company owns or guarantees.

The company, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the $12 trillion in U.S. residential mortgage debt, is seeking to break a “logjam” in refinancing and allow more homeowners to take advantage of near-record low interest rates, according to Brian Faith, a Fannie Mae spokesman. The increased flexibility for consumers isn’t large enough to significantly harm mortgage- bond investors and mortgage insurers, analysts said.

My Comment: Hmm, those "relaxed" standards sound suspiciously like the same ones that helped cause the housing-lending-and-credit-bubble debacle. On the other hand, perhaps the risk equation here is fundamentallu different in a declining market, i.e. in the face of intense downward-appraisal pressure. But still...


Commodity Shipping Index Posts Best Winning Streak Since 2007 in London: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, posted its longest winning streak since May 2007 as demand for iron ore cut the number of vessels available for hire.

The index tracking transport costs on international trade routes rose 182 points, or 14 percent, to 1,498 points, according to the Baltic Exchange. That’s the highest since Oct. 16 and all vessel classes gained. The index advanced 15 percent yesterday, the most since at least 1985.

“Activity has gradually been working its way through the queue of ships available,” to a point where the fleet is almost fully utilized, Kjetil Sjuve, dry cargo department manager at Lorentzen & Stemoco AS in Oslo, said by phone today.

The number of available capesize ships that typically haul iron ore, a steelmaking raw material, has fallen to almost zero, Oslo-based shipbroker Fearnley Fonds ASA said yesterday. As much as a quarter of the fleet may have been at anchor two months ago as shipping rates collapsed to below operating costs.

Chinese steel makers may be replenishing iron-ore stockpiles that by mid-January were 22 percent lower than the record set in September. The main iron ore routes to China, from Tubarao, Brazil and Western Australia are at the highest since October.

The steel industry accounts for almost half of all dry-bulk cargo at sea, according to shipping line Golden Ocean Ltd.

My Comment: While it`s good to see the Baltic Dry Index slowly rising from the dead again, one wonders whether the jump in Chinese iron ore imports will be sustained. Chinese government stimulus spending may be helping prop things up here.

[cheesehead]

"econolypse"

“Economy” + “apocalypse”

http://www.doubletongued.org/index.p.../econolypse_1/

[R.D. Silverman]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced the government will require financial companies getting aid in the future to cap compensation of top officials at $500,000 a year.[/i]

My Comment: Long-overdue and much-needed - but too bad they can`t make it retroactive. Hank Paulson made sure to take good care of his bankster buddies last year when proposing the TARP and rushing it through congress. Of course, the mere fact that top management will get to keep their jobs is upsetting to many.

I don't think the restriction goes far enough. They should limit TOTAL
compensation, not just salary. It should be made retroactive.
Restrictions on ex-post-facto may make it impossible.

And it should also apply to executives in any company who is laying
people off!! What right do those people have to keep their ridiculous
salaries while their company is dumping people on the street????

BTW, a lot of smileys seem to be missing.....