Predict discovery date of the 1st 100M digit prime

[uigrad]

Pointless? So what?

2018 is my guess.

It may not seem like there is much of a need for large multicores CPUs, but if it is possible, it will happen. One of my postdoc friends is studying methods of making use of many cores without imposing a large burden on the software developers, and I'm sure that there are many of other researchers looking at this also.

The two big applications that have the most to gain from processing power is games and video processing. Games will always be pushing the bleeding edge, and homemade videos (for greeting cards, invitations, etc) will become standard fare once there are better tools available for it.

[retina]

Originally Posted by T.Rex

We need a poll with about 20 years (2009...) so that anyone can vote and we can see easily the result !!
Who knows how to add a poll for 100M and for M47 ???? Do it ! Please !
Tony

I don't see the utility of a poll. It is not a popularity contest and it would limit what can be selected to just a few options.

[Primeinator]

2015

[richs]

When I retire in 2016.

[davieddy]

http://primes.utm.edu/notes/by_year.html#3

If you just look at the GIMPS era, you will see that the
data is best fitted by a curve resembling exponential
saturation well below 100M digits. GIMPS may well struggle to
maintain an advance of 20 M in the wavefront every 5 years.

That is why I voted for >2026 in the poll.

Of course it doesn't have to be GIMPS or even a Mersenne, but
an unexpected twist will be needed e,g, actually finding a use for
a 100M digit prime!

David

[Syd]

November 2010 using some kind of new primality test

[jrk]

2016

I predict a new, faster method of proving the composite-ness of k*b^n±c will be found that will increase the rate of eliminating composites.

A 100M digit prime number (whether Mersenne or not) shall be found by 2016 using LLT on the candidates which failed the faster composite test.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by T.Rex

We need a poll with about 20 years (2009...) so that anyone can vote and we can see easily the result !!
Who knows how to add a poll for 100M and for M47 ???? Do it ! Please !
Tony

There is one here now.

[T.Rex]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

There is one here now.

Thanks ! I've voted.
T.

[joblack]

Originally Posted by Primeinator

2015

On my Q6600 quad core it predicts the end of checking in 2015 (not that bad either). I think in 2009 you have some cheaper Oct-Core so you could move it to 2013 (keep Moore´s law in mind).

If I would be really rich I would playing around with one of these new 2 x 8 core (32 ht) machines and would try it out ;o).

The main problem is that in 2013 150.000 USD have the value of two pizza´s and one coke - but it would be fun anyway.

[retina]

Originally Posted by Flatlander

My guess is the 2nd half of 2015.

Originally Posted by uigrad

2018 is my guess.

Originally Posted by Primeinator

2015

Originally Posted by richs

When I retire in 2016.

Originally Posted by Syd

November 2010 using some kind of new primality test

Originally Posted by jrk

2016

I predict a new, faster method of proving the composite-ness of k*b^n±c will be found that will increase the rate of eliminating composites.

A 100M digit prime number (whether Mersenne or not) shall be found by 2016 using LLT on the candidates which failed the faster composite test.

Originally Posted by joblack

On my Q6600 quad core it predicts the end of checking in 2015 (not that bad either). I think in 2009 you have some cheaper Oct-Core so you could move it to 2013 (keep Moore´s law in mind).

You all failed!

Originally Posted by joblack

The main problem is that in 2013 150.000 USD have the value of two pizza´s and one coke - but it would be fun anyway.

Presumably you are using the European dot separator and you meant USD150000. But even for USD150 you could easily get more than two pizzas and a coke.

So still some guesses going as far as 2026. Do those posters still consider that date likely?