Holy new Mersenne prime, Batman! (M47 related)

[jrk]

The server could be shared with other tasks.

The ETA could also be overestimated.

[cheesehead]

More speculation:

In one past conference call among/between the cabal, it was decided that all future posted verification time estimates would be inflated according to a certain formula (plus icosahedral dice rolls) in order to confuse that channel of information. Variations could be blamed on delays in getting started, differing loads of shared systems, hackers, mistaken use of the Julian calendar, and so forth. There was a reference to that key-cracking method from a while ago that relied on getting the elapsed times taken to encrypt various test numbers, and suggested countermeasures to it.

[ixfd64]

Where's Bruce Schneier when you need him? I'm sure he could determine the exponent just by staring down this thread. After all, he probably uses M45 as his luggage combination.

[cheesehead]

http://geekz.co.uk/schneierfacts/facts/top

[Batalov]

Someone simply had to do this edit - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M45

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by ixfd64

Judging by the time the verification runs are expected to take, I'm guessing the exponent is in the 42M range. It took seven days to verify that M32582657 was prime. A Mersenne number with an exponent in the 42M range would be about 1.3 times as long as M32582657. That makes about nine days days. For exponents in the 42M range, each iteration takes about 1.5 times as long as for M32582657. Thus, we have to multiply our figure by an additional factor of 1.5. This is fairly consistent with the expected finishing time of between September 12th and September 16th.

See my post#170
See also Jeff Gilchrist's posts.
Tony Reix verified M44 in six days. For some reason, he is not doing it
this time. Jeff took "11 days of time" but his system is busier this time.
George quoted Sept 8th and 12th (not 16th) as the ETA.
In short, it could be any of the numbers in post #123, including the
one with the fake fake residue.

David

PS We need to crack the fake residue given to M44.

[Mini-Geek]

Originally Posted by davieddy

PS We need to crack the fake residue given to M44.

I think it will be much easier once we know M45's real fake residue.

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by Mini-Geek

I think it will be much easier once we know M45's real fake residue.

That's like saying it would have been easier to crack Enigma
if we waited until Hitler won the war

[jinydu]

Is Jeff Gilchrist's expected completion date the 8th or the 12th?

[Mini-Geek]

Originally Posted by davieddy

That's like saying it would have been easier to crack Enigma
if we waited until Hitler won the war

Ah, but at the same time, it's likely that he will use Enigma again in his next war, so it's not quite as silly of a statement as you make it out to be. Plus, it's not a war...just trying to find the new world record prime before it's announced.
It's a bit more like waiting until tomorrow for some puzzle in a newspaper that gives more hints each day, rather than working feverishly on something that we don't really have enough hints to go on.

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by jinydu

Is Jeff Gilchrist's expected completion date the 8th or the 12th?

This thread is nearing unfathomable proportions, but I recall Jeff
suggesting that Ernst might beat him to it.
So on the strength(?) of that I would guess the 12th