Where is 'M45'? -poll 1

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by davieddy

The probability of no more primes in the first range is very high.
The probability of no primes between 32M and 43M is >80%
The probability of no primes between 43M and 56M is ~50%
The probability of no primes between 56M and 79M is ~40%

Tests are performed in ascending order.

So the probabilities of the next prime being found in each range are:

0%
20%
0.8*0.5 = 40%
0.8*0.5*0.6 = 24%
0.8*0.5*0.4 *1 = 16%

David

[cheesehead]

Originally Posted by davieddy

It is remarkable how well the % poll results reflect
the actual probabilities for each range.

(* ahem *) Perhaps we peeked at the probabilities before answering the poll?

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by cheesehead

(* ahem *) Perhaps we peeked at the probabilities before answering the poll?

The poll was supposed to get closed a couple of days ago.

Currently I'm pleased that my probabilities sum to 1.
Gives me confidence that I still have some marbles left.

David

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by cheesehead

(* ahem *) Perhaps we peeked at the probabilities before answering the poll?

And programmed our response accordingly?

[Fusion_power]

not at all naively davieddy, knew that you had mixed your models. Was pointing out that your math was not exactly kosher.

I might add that your most recent effort is still in error.

DarJones

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by Fusion_power

not at all naively davieddy, knew that you had mixed your models. Was pointing out that your math was not exactly kosher.

I might add that your most recent effort is still in error.

DarJones

OK you are on!
Point out my error. I'll be back

Meantime I quote myself:
Note that the expected number of primes is not 1 - 0.17.
That gives us the probability of one OR MORE primes.

David