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Old 2021-04-12, 15:10   #1
tServo
 
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Default Bizzare thought about graphics card shortage

While perusing web sites that discuss graphics or gaming or the chip industry, I found two interesting threads.
(1) Despite Nvidia's and AMD's assurances that the video card shortage will be alleviated within the next month, most insiders who have contacts with people in the supply chain don't think so. In fact, they are saying the earliest might possibly, maybe, could be late third quarter or early fourth quarter; and that's only if the stars align perfectly. The shortage is multi faceted and complex.
(2) The other interesting thread I found is that articles are already talking about the next generation of graphics. This is nothing new and is part of the normal life cycle of a video generation.
The thought has occurred that if the current shortage goes on too long, these rumors and articles will appear more frequently and in more widespread industry news outlet causing the next wave of products to enter the minds of potential buyers before they have even had the chance to purchase the current offerings. Newegg has said that whenever they get a paltry shipment, it is gone in less than 5 minutes and shipments are getting scarcer, not better.
I wonder if this may cause frustrated buyers ( like me ) to just forget about even trying to find the current cards and focus on the next one. After all, who wants to spend big bucks on a digital toy to have it made obsolete VERY quickly?
Will AMD and Nvidia put the brakes on any future development so something like this doesn't happen? Remember. they are constantly eyeing each other so if one plunges ahead with a new video generation the other may feel they have to follow suit.
Thus we may wind up with a "stillborn" generation of cards.
As Mike Meyers used to say on SNL's "Coffee Talk", discuss amoung yourselves.
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Old 2021-04-12, 17:27   #2
kriesel
 
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Crazy times we're in, presumably due to the plethora of cryptocurrency schemes. Automated vehicles increase demand too.

We're now in a situation where used functional but no-warranty Radeon VIIs sell for 3 times what new ones with warranty used to. Broken ones sell for 1.5 times what new with warranty used to.
Its replacement, Radeon Pro VII, provides little performance gain for GIMPS primality testing, while costing 3 times what the Radeon VII did.
The next generation RX6xxx are also being scalped and are scarce.

On the NVIDIA side:
We can no longer buy new RTX2080 or GTX1080Ti. No longer being made. RTX30xx are very costly and scarce. The NVIDIA model progression provides a lot of TF performance and relatively little PRP or P-1 performance.

Older used models get bid up as substitution for scarce and costly current production occurs.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-04-12 at 17:28
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Old 2021-04-12, 18:59   #3
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I got lucky and picked up a 3070 as I happened to be online when new stock was added to a site I visit. But essentially... things aren't looking great. My target was a launch 3080 or hold out for the mythical 3080 Ti, but even if the latter were to exist, I don't think I would want to spend that much on it.

I don't think the silicon shortage in itself is entirely to blame. It certainly doesn't help, but I have to wonder how the current profitability of mining is turning what would already be an undesirable situation into a perfect storm. GPUs are worth more to miners than gamers and other compute users. As long as that remains the case, it is hard to see the situation changing.

The part attribution of shortages to the worldwide situation will be an interesting one to test as we progress through the year. I'm in the UK with somewhere in the region of over 60% of adults having had at least one dose of vaccine, and it feels like the end of the road is in sight. Will that lead to a reduction in demand? Of course, this situation wont be over until the world has dealt with it, but it is a start.

I also get a feeling that many places are prioritising stocks of GPUs to systems rather than single sales. Pre-built systems with latest GPUs seem to be not so bad in availability. There have been quite a few "new" systems offered for resale without GPU. I don't think that is a coincidence if people are finding themselves buying a pre-built to get a GPU and resell the excess system to recover that part of the cost.

On silly pricing, I lost some, I gained some from that. I sold off my RX580 8GB cards last year just before the release of the current gen. Pricing was pretty low as it seemed lots of people were selling in preparation to upgrade. When the shortages hit, used prices started to rise. If I sold those same RX580's today, I would get 3x for them. Crazy. Maybe I should have twigged my Vega 56 was underpriced when someone offered to drive over with cash late at night to grab it there and then. After failing to buy during the 3080 and 3070 launch sales, I did pick up a used 2080Ti. I could resell it today for at least another 10% on top of what I paid for it. Still debating if I should, given I got a 3070 now which I wanted more for HDMI 2.1. I'm also looking at selling my older GPUs from Pascal and Maxwell era. They still game fine, but are too inefficient relative to Turing/Ampere for any serious compute use.
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Old 2021-04-27, 17:43   #4
tServo
 
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Nvidia video cards get even scarcer:

Ebay spams me with computer listings and a recent one caught my eye. It was a brand new Dell computer with no gpu. Checking the full listing, the seller said it hadn't even been powered on. They just removed the gpu ( no doubt an Ampere card ) and sold it. I did a search on Ebay for "dell no gpu" and found over a hundred systems like this.

Wondering how Dell's shipments looked, I found that you can expect a delivery of a system with an Ampere card to take 2 months !

On youtube, I found some videos of people camping outside electronics stores overnight to be first in line for the next day's scheduled video card delivery. In the one I watched to the end ( a MicroCenter Denver store ), the delivery amounted to 3 rtx 3070 cards. The people who had frozen their ass all night were definitely disappointed, but took the cards anyway.
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