20181227, 02:09  #23 
Romulan Interpreter
Jun 2011
Thailand
2^{5}·5·59 Posts 
What do we get if we guess right?

20181227, 03:10  #24 
Jan 2016
Mighty Black Stump
10000_{2} Posts 
93456799  7 April 2019
106456799  22 January 2020 146456881  3 February 2022 
20181227, 18:24  #25 
Nov 2004
1034_{8} Posts 
It can't be this close to M51, but that's what I said about the last two primes. I'll go with 97211981, October 30, 2019.

20181227, 18:38  #26 
Bemusing Prompter
"Danny"
Dec 2002
California
2·3·397 Posts 
M96052357 on May 21, 2021
M110691683 on January 3, 2025 M121596589 on October 8, 2027 
20181227, 18:57  #27 
6809 > 6502
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Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
22523_{8} Posts 
Oct 1 is used by your first guess. Therefore the dates for your 2nd and 3rd guesses are being ignored. You must wait 60 days before guessing anymore dates. At that time you may only guess the date, you can't update the number.

20181228, 12:18  #28 
"Patrik Johansson"
Aug 2002
Uppsala, Sweden
5^{2}·17 Posts 
91502209 on December 4, 2020

20181228, 15:30  #29 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
3·5·7^{2}·13 Posts 
The advantages of guessing late:
84000017 on Feb 28, 2019 89999999 on Apr 15, 2020 95000167 on Sept 24, 2021 
20190102, 22:00  #30 
Apr 2010
Over the rainbow
11·233 Posts 
lets say M
M85,020,577 on 1 january 2020 M87,522,767 on 3 january 2021 M90,098,611 on 1 february 2022 Last fiddled with by firejuggler on 20190102 at 22:05 
20190104, 15:37  #31 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
3×5×7^{2}×13 Posts 
A couple of nice graphs of the guesses:
The first one is a scatter plot. The 2 outer lines were upper and lower bounds (until firejuggler came in and guessed all 3 above the upper bound.) The box represents more than half of the guesses. And I ignored the most pessimistic guesses for this. In the second I reassigned the dates and guesses, such that the lowest guess was paired with the earliest date. Graphed with a nice trendline for your pleasure. 
20190104, 16:11  #32 
Sep 2003
5035_{8} Posts 
So, 60% of the guesses are below 100M. And only one (!) guess is solidly above the expected median line of 1.47576 × the previous prime exponent = 121.88M, with three in the borderline area.
I'll revive my previous guess of 282,362,693 on March 3, 2025. And yes, it's another p=1 (mod 4). Last fiddled with by GP2 on 20190104 at 16:15 
20190104, 16:23  #33  
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2553_{16} Posts 
Quote:
258150181 March 12, 2052 402143633 and these had no date associated with them, so they are not on the left plot: 87885437 87946949 92074531 Current summary Code:
Who When guessed Exponent When found Uncwilly 12/28/2018 84000017 2/28/2019 firejuggler 1/2/2019 85020577 1/1/2020 Neutron3529 12/13/2018 85615531 10/1/2019 firejuggler 1/2/2019 87522767 1/3/2021 Petrw1 12/12/2018 87654361 12/25/2019 moebius 12/14/2018 87885437 Neutron3529 12/13/2018 87946949 kriesel 12/21/2018 88318673 6/14/2019 Uncwilly 12/29/2018 89999999 4/15/2020 firejuggler 1/2/2019 90098611 2/1/2022 patrik 12/18/2018 91502209 12/4/2020 Neutron3529 12/13/2018 92074531 christian_ 12/27/2018 93456799 4/7/2019 axn 12/21/2018 94029857 3/17/2021 Uncwilly 12/30/2018 95000167 9/24/2021 EWMayer 12/12/2018 96000193 5/1/2021 ixfd64 12/27/2018 96052357 5/21/2021 Dylan14 12/14/2018 97200647 2/2/2021 Spherical Cow 12/27/2018 97211981 10/30/2019 christian_ 12/27/2018 106456799 1/22/2020 axn 12/21/2018 107054317 8/31/2023 Prime95 12/16/2018 107448181 6/1/2022 Batalov 12/12/2018 110691517 6/19/2022 ixfd64 12/27/2018 110691683 1/3/2025 masser 12/12/2018 117003179 11/24/2022 masser 12/12/2018 118788157 8/8/2020 ixfd64 12/27/2018 121596589 10/8/2027 kriesel 12/21/2018 121882753 5/21/2025 axn 12/21/2018 121882903 7/12/2026 christian_ 12/27/2018 146456881 2/3/2022 BrianE 12/21/2018 258150181 5/15/2027 GP2 1/4/2019 282362693 3/3/2025 kriesel 12/21/2018 402143633 3/12/2052 tServo 12/14/2018 12/31/2019 moebius 12/14/2018 1/13/2020 Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20190104 at 16:35 

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