20151020, 07:57  #1 
Mar 2014
2^{4}×5 Posts 
what are Reliability and Confidence?
I was looking at the specific setting for my computer on the website and I noticed these two values as well as CPU rolling average. I believe I've seen Reliability and Confidence mentioned before and I was wondering what they all meant.

20151020, 10:39  #2 
"Matthew Anderson"
Dec 2010
Oregon, USA
3×367 Posts 
Hi Math People,
That is a good question. Although I am not intimately familiar with the inner workings of Prime95, I offer two Wikipedia articles. Reliability  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability Confidence  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence In My Humble Opinion (IMHO), Wikipedia is a great free encyclopedia. Thanks again for the question. Regards, Matt 
20151020, 11:43  #3 
Account Deleted
"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA
7×13×47 Posts 
Reliability is a measure of how likely your computer is to produce a correct result. Confidence is how sure PrimeNet is of that reliability figure.
For example, when you start out, you'll probably have a good reliability measure, but with very low confidence (i.e. we can only guess you're good). If you consistently return errorfree results (either because of a matching DC or just from the error tracking during the test), the reliability and confidence get higher (i.e. we know you're good). If you consistently return bad results, the reliability gets lower and the confidence goes up (i.e. we know you're bad). 
20151020, 22:22  #4 
Mar 2014
2^{4}×5 Posts 
Do you have any idea what the ranges of the values are? my reliability is .98 which I presume is a percentage and the confidence is 10.0 my first assumption would be statistical confidence but that doesn't really make sense in this context.

20151020, 23:04  #5  
Account Deleted
"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA
10B5_{16} Posts 
Quote:
Reliability is a rolling average, and is a percentage like you thought and so would range from 01: yours means that it thinks there's a 98% probability that a result you give is correct (probably uncoincidentally, 0.98 is the score given for an unverified but noerrorsreported LL test, like most firsttime LLs). Confidence is just a count of how many LL tests you've returned, so yours means you've done 10 tests (this is more simplistic than confidence intervals). A more advanced confidence test should include the estimated time of the LL test, but that level of precision isn't really needed for GIMPS's purposes. See also the thresholds page that has some reliability/confidence levels (in short, a confidence of 2.0 or above and a reliability of 0.95 or higher is good enough for anything). Last fiddled with by MiniGeek on 20151020 at 23:19 

20151020, 23:19  #6 
Mar 2014
2^{4}·5 Posts 
Thanks for the help in tracking that info down

20151020, 23:20  #7  
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
24316_{8} Posts 
Quote:
It would be, indeed, interesting to have an explication as to the maths behind these numbers... 

20151021, 00:41  #8  
"Kieren"
Jul 2011
In My Own Galaxy!
27AE_{16} Posts 
Quote:


20151021, 01:19  #9 
"Graham uses ISO 8601"
Mar 2014
AU, Sydney
413_{8} Posts 
My confidence took a tumble after 4 of 4 cores returned bad results from double check 34M work on almost the same day not long ago.
That has been the only known problem for such work. As I look now after a little more DC work, I see Reliability, Confidence 0.98, 10.0. P.S. I was referring to my personal confidence, I didn't note to what extent PrimeNet blinked. Last fiddled with by snme2pm1 on 20151021 at 01:30 
20151021, 02:30  #10 
Romulan Interpreter
"name field"
Jun 2011
Thailand
7×1,423 Posts 
To contribute some data, all computers in my list have a 0.98, 10.0, except two.
From the two, one is 0.99, 10.0 (Yaaarrrr! ) The other is a "split", or "clone" which means (quote from the web page) "The server may erroneously create a duplicate entry for one of your computers. This isn't harmful, but can result in some confusion having two entries for the same computer in the table above. This "cloning" can occur if you upgrade a computer's CPU, upgrade or reinstall Windows, or run into a program bug. You can merge the two entries by checking two computers above, checking the "I am sure" box, and clicking the merge button." This "split" shows a 0.98, 2.0 initially, but then I "merged" it (luckily, the computer is still there, and the "clone" didn't report anything since end of June, I assume the server got confused by my July holiday). After merging it with the original, the score of the original is still 0.98, 10.0 (no "average" was done, I was a bit afraid it will do that). Last fiddled with by LaurV on 20151021 at 02:32 
20151021, 03:26  #11 
"Kieren"
Jul 2011
In My Own Galaxy!
2·3·1,693 Posts 

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