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Old 2013-02-06, 03:48   #12
philmoore
 
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M76706041, August 21, 2017.
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Old 2013-02-06, 03:49   #13
petrw1
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Default Keeping my M48 cause CC found M49

Time for a couple close ones again....49532123 - February 12, 2013
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Old 2013-02-06, 03:49   #14
dabaichi
 
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70.12M range in July 2016.
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Old 2013-02-06, 05:22   #15
gmn17
 
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Lightbulb Re: Next Mersenne Prime below current exponent

I have done somye excel and mathematica analysis and get a 99.2% chance that the next exponent is in the 50,000,000-53,000,000 range. See files attached. and the 50th in the 64,000,000-66,000,000 range. SO check these ranges thorougly
Thanks,
Gregory
Attached Files
File Type: zip MersennePrimesTrend.zip (59.6 KB, 76 views)
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Old 2013-02-06, 09:06   #16
Brian-E
 
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In the range 37.1M-37.2M, remarkably close to what we currently call M45, and it will be found as a triple check in September 2015 after two non-matching tests which incorrectly return composite, just one of which has currently already been done.
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Old 2013-02-06, 09:51   #17
axn
 
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Carrying over (and refining) my prediction from the previous two threads:

68407583 6/14/2015
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Old 2013-02-06, 20:42   #18
joblack
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prime95 View Post
Ever the pessimist, I predict ~88,300,000 in August 2019.
It depends. When will you go another vacation, again? ;)
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Old 2013-02-06, 21:41   #19
NBtarheel_33
 
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~64,500,000 by the end of 2014.

(I would also not be surprised to find another prime in the range 50-55M. Hope springs eternal. )
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Old 2013-02-06, 22:24   #20
davieddy
 
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When and where the next MP is is a moving target.
This is what GIMPS is about.
4 years time is a sensible (and sustainable) guess.

D
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Old 2013-02-07, 03:03   #21
ewmayer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prime95 View Post
Ever the pessimist, I predict ~88,300,000 in August 2019.
Combining the well-known --George "by a nose" algorithm, Crank (p-1) SmoothnessTM and my innate raving optimism, I predict

88291201, in May 2019.
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Old 2013-02-07, 03:22   #22
VBCurtis
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmn17 View Post
I have done somye excel and mathematica analysis and get a 99.2% chance that the next exponent is in the 50,000,000-53,000,000 range. See files attached. and the 50th in the 64,000,000-66,000,000 range. SO check these ranges thorougly
Thanks,
Gregory
Perhaps my sarcasm meter is broken, but a 0.8% chance of a prime in 50M-53M sounds about right, given that some tests have already been completed. You sure you didn't forget a "1 - x" term in there somewhere?

A 99% chance? I'll settle for the under at 50% odds- if there is no prime, I win; if a mersenne prime is found in that range, you win. If your spreadsheet is correct, I am offering you 1-1 odds on a 992-8 favorite.
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