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Old 2020-04-15, 23:12   #617
Dr Sardonicus
 
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Default Let's get that second wave going...

Powerful GOP allies propel Trump effort to reopen economy
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The push to revive the economy is being influenced and amplified by a potent alliance of big money business interests, religious freedom conservatives and small-government activists, some with direct dial to Trump. They are gaining currency as a counter-point to the health professionals who warn of potentially deadly consequences from easing coronavirus stay-home restrictions too soon.
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Old 2020-04-16, 02:37   #618
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Hey everyone dies sometime. A lot of you folks are probably on your last legs anyway, or will be once we put you back to making money for us and you can't distance.
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Old 2020-04-16, 07:49   #619
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I agree that risk management is all about balancing various probabilities, and the costs of optional actions. But perhaps the balancing should be more towards taking actions which might be safer, even if it they turn out to not have been necessary.
Just to reinforce what chalsall said, we might look at SARS, MERS, etc. as dodging bullets. Four or five, or more have just nicked us, RECENTLY, as in the last 90 years. Got hit pretty bad just over a hundred years ago, and the machine gun has a very long belt. Dodging may be tiresome, but remember 1918 when we really took a hit. Also, per chalsall, collective memory doesn't extend much past the last commercial break, but some folks have longer memories, AKA History. Finally, we don't know if the 50 caliber gun we've been dodging has something bigger and badder behind it; but given the longer history the odds of something worse are pretty strong.

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Old 2020-04-16, 15:33   #620
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Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
A look at the years 2000, 2038, & 2100. And why disaster prevention success is misperceived by the general population.
https://www.flashforwardpod.com/2020...000-2038-2100/
Great link.

One that may have caught my former employer unaware is while we were finishing Y2K preparation, a large costly DEC Printserver 20 network printer ceased working in September 1999, possibly 9/9/99. It was by then old and superseded by newer faster printers in the department, so not a priority to solve. https://www.wired.com/2011/09/090909...puter-problem/

Some forward thinking folks are already running into the Y10K problem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_10,000_problem

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Old 2020-04-16, 15:38   #621
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Originally Posted by kladner View Post
Just to reinforce what chalsall said, we might look at SARS, MERS, etc. as dodging bullets. Four or five, or more have just nicked us, RECENTLY, as in the last 90 years. Got hit pretty bad just over a hundred years ago, and the machine gun has a very long belt. Dodging may be tiresome, but remember 1918 when we really took a hit. Also, per chalsall, collective memory doesn't extend much past the last commercial break, but some folks have longer memories, AKA History. Finally, we don't know if the 50 caliber gun we've been dodging has something bigger and badder behind it; but given the longer history the odds of something worse are pretty strong.
There is also the pandemic I mentioned a few posts back, whose declaration as such was a long time a-comin'. I was not referring to COVID-19.
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Old 2020-04-16, 16:00   #622
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Finally, we don't know if the 50 caliber gun we've been dodging has something bigger and badder behind it; but given the longer history the odds of something worse are pretty strong.
While there isn't sentience behind this kind of thing, it isn't to a virus's evolutionary advantage to kill its host (at least, not too quickly). Not to say there won't be a "bug" (no joke intended) which results in the elimination of both the virus and the hosts.
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Old 2020-04-16, 16:24   #623
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There is also the pandemic I mentioned a few posts back, whose declaration as such was a long time a-comin'. I was not referring to COVID-19.
Oops. My bad. What was the intent?
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Old 2020-04-16, 16:26   #624
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Some rural areas near metropolises have high per capita Covid19 rates. My guess is due to shopping and commuting patterns. (It's not unusual for rural couples to have at least one city job with employment-related health insurance coverage. This is common on farms, for example; husband farms full time, wife works in a nearby city, perhaps in health care.) https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...rus-infection/

Current state of knowledge summary on COVID19 treatment https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...-for-covid-19/

Manufacturing antibodies https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...-COVID-19.html

EIDD2801: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ridge...205900313.html

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2020-04-16 at 16:56
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Old 2020-04-16, 16:50   #625
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Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Some rural areas near metropolises have high per capita rates. My guess is due to shopping and commuting patterns.
Andorra has a remarkably high per capita rate. Last I heard it was 33 deaths in a population of 77000.

My guess is due to shopping patterns.
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Old 2020-04-16, 17:07   #626
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Andorra has a remarkably high per capita rate. Last I heard it was 33 deaths in a population of 77000.

My guess is due to shopping patterns.
Population density seems to be a factor. Andorra at 466 persons/sq mile, 180/sq km is quite high population density compared to American rural areas. Compare to say 19/sq mile https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_County,_Wisconsin
Looking at some of the 72 individual counties in Wisconsin, per capita rate increases with density.
Milwaukee County at 3800/sq mile has less than 1/5 the state's population but the majority of the state's Covid19 cases. Most counties have considerable local variation in population density; farmland is much less dense population than even villages and unincorporated settlement areas. Zoning laws formalize the population density variation even in rural areas. One side of a road might be a house per 2 acres, while the other side might be a house per 35 acres or more, for preservation of cropland. Due to nonlinearity, the higher density areas will determine the outcome.

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Old 2020-04-16, 18:10   #627
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Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Population density seems to be a factor.
True, but perhaps you are not aware of two significant characteristics of Andorra.

First, it is a tax haven where Spaniards traditionally hide their wealth.
Second, it attracts very large numbers of shoppers from both Spain and France because its low tax rates lead to much lower prices than are generally available in the surrounding countries. I've heard Andorra being described as being just one large supermarket.
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