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Old 2020-07-04, 21:12   #947
ewmayer
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@Ken: Ah, my bad - I misread your post. US death rates not yet spiking like new-cases, but it makes sense that the former lags the latter by weeks or months.
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Old 2020-07-06, 12:42   #948
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Covid19 infection rate approx 11x case rate, based on several serology surveys in US (with outliers 6x and 24x) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...b-surveys.html

NYTimes on how deadly is the coronavirus really? Punch line is at 0.64% of cases, it's still millions. And experience over centuries indicates the first wave is followed by a more deadly wave months later. I speculate that this is a function of human psychology, politics and economics, not much affected by medical technology. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/h...eath-rate.html

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Old 2020-07-06, 21:18   #949
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Back at beginning of March in this thread there was discussion of the WHO's conflicts of interest, especially w.r.to China. Latest on that front:

The WHO changed its coronavirus timeline to say it got its first report about the virus on the internet, not from Chinese authorities | Business Insider
Quote:
The World Health Organisation changed its coronavirus timeline to say it first heard about the coronavirus from a press release online, rather than a report from Chinese authorities.

In the revision, published June 29, the WHO said that on December 31, 2019, “WHO’s Country Office in the People’s Republic of China picked up a media statement by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from their website on cases of ‘viral pneumonia’ in Wuhan, People’s Republic of China.”

That same day, the WHO’s open-source intelligence platform also picked up a Chinese-language news report from Finance Sina, a Chinese outlet, about the same cluster of cases in Wuhan, attributed to a “pneumonia of unknown cause,” the agency said.

The WHO requested further information about the reports from China over the next two days – on January 1 and January 2, 2020 – but only got a response on January 3.

In a previous chronology, published in April, the WHO had said that it found out about the cases from the Wuhan municipal health commission, without specifying where or how it was notified, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

[Photo: NAOHIKO HATTA/AFP via Getty ImagesWHO chief Tedros and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on January 28, 2020.]

The revised chronology now shows that the WHO’s China office, not Chinese authorities, had raised the first alert.

WHO emergencies director Michael Ryan told reporters on Friday that countries have 24 to 48 hours to verify an event and tell the WHO about it, and that Chinese authorities had immediately contacted the WHO as soon as the agency asked about the reports.

In a Sunday statement to Business Insider, a WHO spokesperson said the new timeline “gives more details” on the WHO’s initial contact with China, and “illustrates the range of WHO’s work to stop transmission and save lives.”

The spokeperson did not explain why the WHO took months to clarify how it found out about the outbreak.

China has been accused of covering up the coronavirus in its early days, suppressing key information to its citizens and the WHO.

The Associated Press (AP) reported last month that China delayed the release of critical information about the outbreak to the public and the WHO for several days, and waited more than a week to release the virus’ genome – actions that likely delayed the development of vaccines, drugs, and diagnostic tests.

The AP also reported in April that top Chinese leaders had known for six days in January that the coronavirus could become a deadly pandemic, but told the world the virus posed a low risk to people and could not be transmitted between humans.

At the same time, the WHO, which relies on countries to provide their own data, took China at its word and offered the same advice – which has since proven to be wrong.

Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China????????. pic.twitter.com/Fnl5P877VG

— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) January 14, 2020


China has long denied accusations of a coverup, saying it released information and genome sequences as early as possible.

The WHO has also been accused of helping China cover up the outbreak in its early days.

President Donald Trump, who repeatedly highlighted the allegations, has since withdrawn $US400 million of US funding into the WHO and threatened to sever ties to the agency.

China, meanwhile, has pledged billions of dollars in additional funds into the agency.Experts previously told Business Insider that Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu, the WHO’s director-general, was “deeply compromised.”

Last fiddled with by ewmayer on 2020-07-06 at 21:19
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Old 2020-07-07, 04:33   #950
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"..roughly 30 per cent of the blood donors who'd given blood in May 2020 had COVID-19-specific T cells, a figure that's much higher than previous antibody tests have shown."

"81 percent of the subjects who had never had COVID-19 also produced a T-cell immune reaction"

Herd immunity much closer than antibody tests suggest, say 2 new studies
https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-...2-new-studies/
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Old 2020-07-09, 22:25   #951
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Interesting news out of a multi-hospital study in Detroit:
Quote:
For all interested in ongoing research on hydroxychloroquine, see https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/...reatment-study . Detroit.

Bottom line> ” In a large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals, the study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine”.

The trick. Start the treatment as soon as the patient enters the hospital.

HCQ does not work if doctors wait until a patient is at death’s door. This explains the many reported failures eg New York.
Especially important because it seems clear that the pandemic is once again completely out of control in the US. In my NorCal county, which started re-opening of various businesses including sit-down dining at beginning of June, the official-diagnosed-case count has more than quadrupled in the past month. We are so screwed.

Last fiddled with by ewmayer on 2020-07-09 at 22:28
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Old 2020-07-11, 01:24   #952
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We are pessimistic here, even in Chicago. My fear is what spills over from hot spots. Dan and I expect to hole up for months more, at least. No travel, alas, in the foreseeable future.
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Old 2020-07-16, 02:29   #953
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Default Saturated hospitals trigger tougher measures in Yucatán

I don't suppose there is much tourist activity at Cancun anyway. The resorts would have no reason to operate without liquor sales.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/cor...es-in-yucatan/
Quote:
With hospital beds filling up due to the rising number of confirmed coronavirus cases, Yucatán Governor Mauricio Vila Dosal announced a return to coronavirus restrictions yesterday to help prevent the spread of the disease and avoid a collapse of the state’s health care system.

As of Tuesday night, the dry law has been reinstated and the sale of alcohol is banned throughout Yucatán.

Beginning Thursday, residents are asked to stay off the roads from 10:30 p.m. until 5 a.m. In coastal communities, the curfew will take effect at 9 p.m.
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Old 2020-07-16, 17:06   #954
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Old 2020-07-16, 19:14   #955
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xilman View Post
Hilarious...haha
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Old 2020-07-17, 21:52   #956
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Here is the graph with the numbers updated today. The peak has grown to over 21,000 deaths above average in a single week.
The numbers are being updated routinely. The peak is now >24,000 above the norm for that week. That is ~50% more deaths than usual for that week (78314 vs 53739)
Because the data are lagging, I have not plotted the last 4 weeks.
There are indications that road deaths are down as are some others, so that would lead to a lower baseline.
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Old 2020-07-18, 23:48   #957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Because the data are lagging, I have not plotted the last 4 weeks.
When you post the data a few few weeks hence, I expect a significant uptrend starting around mid-June, though death rates tend to lag case-count ones due to various reasons:

Why Is the COVID-19 Death Rate Down? - The Atlantic

At least on the case-counts front, in my and surrounding SF Bay Area counties, the numbers have absolutely exploded in the past 5-6 weeks, precisely what one would expect from early-June wide-scale reopenings which are proving waaaaaaay premature and a complete disaster, public-health-wise.
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