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Old 2009-11-27, 01:23   #1
heich1
 
Aug 2009

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Default Production of Dates

What is your estimation of when the following will occur?

a) When the testing of all exponents below 30402457 once will be completed?

As of Nov 26, 2009, there were 17 left. I predict February 1, 2010.

b) When the 40th Mersenne Prime will be found?

As of Nov 26, 2009, there were 100 exponents to be checked. I predict
June 1, 2010.

c) When all exponents for less than a 100,000,000 million prime will be checked once. I predict May 1, 2010. There are about 75 left to be checked.
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Old 2009-11-27, 22:21   #2
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a) March 05, 2010
b) August 02, 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by heich1 View Post
c) When all exponents for less than a 100,000,000 million prime will be checked once. I predict May 1, 2010. There are about 75 left to be checked.
I think you may have a typo there... even assuming you meant 100 million digit prime and not 100 million million prime. You perhaps meant 10 million digit prime and then my guess would be...
c)May 11, 2010
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Old 2009-11-27, 22:29   #3
ATH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heich1 View Post
What is your estimation of when the following will occur?

a) When the testing of all exponents below 30402457 once will be completed?
I'll say January 20th, 2010

Quote:
b) When the 40th Mersenne Prime will be found?
You mean when will M(20996011) be proven to me the 40th Mersenne Prime. I predict April 10th.

Quote:
c) When all exponents for less than a 100,000,000 million prime will be checked once. I predict May 1, 2010. There are about 75 left to be checked.
You must mean when will all exponents below 10,000,000 digits be checked once (which is all exponents below 33,219,281), there is around 110 left to check. I guess May 1st.
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Old 2010-04-09, 22:07   #4
heich1
 
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I have revised my predictions.

a) When will the testing of all exponents below 30402457 be completed?

As of April 9, 2010 there are 3 left. However the testing for this is going very slowly. Anybody have an explanation why. I now predict June 15, 2010.

b) When will M(20996011) be proven the 40th Mersenne Prime. At present there are 7
left. Testing for this is going somewhat faster. I will hold with my earlier prediction of June 1, 2010.

c) When will all exponents below 10,000,000 digits be checked once(i.e. all exponents
below 33,219,281). At present there about 22 left. My new prediction is Aug 1, 2010.

What is your estimate now?
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Old 2010-04-09, 23:07   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heich1 View Post
What is your estimate now?
Yours -15 days.
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Old 2010-06-24, 01:49   #6
heich1
 
Aug 2009

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Default Prediction of Dates

I wonder why the remaining tests on the 2 members less than M(30402457) and especially the final test below M(20996011) are going so slowly. It seems the number of tests have not changed for about two months. Any explanations?
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Old 2010-06-24, 04:49   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heich1 View Post
I wonder why the remaining tests on the 2 members less than M(30402457) and especially the final test below M(20996011) are going so slowly. It seems the number of tests have not changed for about two months. Any explanations?
Sure: Those tests are running on systems that are going slowly or have been interrupted.

Do not fear that such delays will continue indefinitely. If such delays reach six months (I think that's the current PrimeNet criterion), PrimeNet will reassign those tests to someone else.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2010-06-24 at 04:53
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Old 2010-06-24, 05:38   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heich1 View Post
I wonder why the remaining tests on the 2 members less than M(30402457) and especially the final test below M(20996011) are going so slowly. It seems the number of tests have not changed for about two months. Any explanations?
What makes you think they are going slowly. I suspect those tests have been going the exact same speed for a long time now. Just the OTHER tests went faster.
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Old 2010-06-24, 08:37   #9
ET_
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lfm View Post
What makes you think they are going slowly. I suspect those tests have been going the exact same speed for a long time now. Just the OTHER tests went faster.
Or they have set the maximum delay between communication (IIRC 30 days)...

Luigi
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Old 2010-06-24, 08:55   #10
retina
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lfm View Post
What makes you think they are going slowly. I suspect those tests have been going the exact same speed for a long time now. Just the OTHER tests went faster.
Erm, isn't that how we define slowly? By comparison to another?
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Old 2010-07-12, 04:25   #11
heich1
 
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It appears that the 40th Mersenne Prime was found on July 11, 2010 more than a month after my prediction of June 1, 2010.
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