20091127, 01:23  #1 
Aug 2009
19 Posts 
Production of Dates
What is your estimation of when the following will occur?
a) When the testing of all exponents below 30402457 once will be completed? As of Nov 26, 2009, there were 17 left. I predict February 1, 2010. b) When the 40th Mersenne Prime will be found? As of Nov 26, 2009, there were 100 exponents to be checked. I predict June 1, 2010. c) When all exponents for less than a 100,000,000 million prime will be checked once. I predict May 1, 2010. There are about 75 left to be checked. 
20091127, 22:21  #2  
Jul 2005
Des Moines, Iowa, USA
2·5·17 Posts 
a) March 05, 2010
b) August 02, 2010 Quote:
c)May 11, 2010 

20091127, 22:29  #3  
Einyen
Dec 2003
Denmark
3×1,117 Posts 
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:


20100409, 22:07  #4 
Aug 2009
10011_{2} Posts 
I have revised my predictions.
a) When will the testing of all exponents below 30402457 be completed? As of April 9, 2010 there are 3 left. However the testing for this is going very slowly. Anybody have an explanation why. I now predict June 15, 2010. b) When will M(20996011) be proven the 40th Mersenne Prime. At present there are 7 left. Testing for this is going somewhat faster. I will hold with my earlier prediction of June 1, 2010. c) When will all exponents below 10,000,000 digits be checked once(i.e. all exponents below 33,219,281). At present there about 22 left. My new prediction is Aug 1, 2010. What is your estimate now? 
20100409, 23:07  #5 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2^{2}·3·887 Posts 

20100624, 01:49  #6 
Aug 2009
23_{8} Posts 
Prediction of Dates
I wonder why the remaining tests on the 2 members less than M(30402457) and especially the final test below M(20996011) are going so slowly. It seems the number of tests have not changed for about two months. Any explanations?

20100624, 04:49  #7  
"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA
2^{2}×3×641 Posts 
Quote:
Do not fear that such delays will continue indefinitely. If such delays reach six months (I think that's the current PrimeNet criterion), PrimeNet will reassign those tests to someone else. Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 20100624 at 04:53 

20100624, 05:38  #8 
Jul 2006
Calgary
5^{2}·17 Posts 
What makes you think they are going slowly. I suspect those tests have been going the exact same speed for a long time now. Just the OTHER tests went faster.

20100624, 08:37  #9 
Banned
"Luigi"
Aug 2002
Team Italia
12EB_{16} Posts 

20100624, 08:55  #10 
Undefined
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair
2×17×193 Posts 

20100712, 04:25  #11 
Aug 2009
19_{10} Posts 
It appears that the 40th Mersenne Prime was found on July 11, 2010 more than a month after my prediction of June 1, 2010.

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