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Old 2015-10-22, 07:10   #1
aketilander
 
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"Åke Tilander"
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Smile Today it is 1000 Days since last Mersenne Prime

Today is a notable day since it is 1000 days since we last discovered a Mersenne Prime. Attached you find a table of number of days between discoveries:


So what do you think, will there be another 1000 days before we see next Mersenne Prime?

My personal guess is that it will take a total of more then 3000 days, but less then 10000 before we see next Mersenne Prime, starting counting from 2013-01-25.

Last fiddled with by aketilander on 2015-10-22 at 07:21
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Old 2015-10-22, 07:35   #2
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I'll guess within the next week*.


*answer given to within 5 years
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Old 2015-10-22, 20:25   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0PolarBearsHere View Post
I'll guess within the next week*.


*answer given to within 5 years
you double your coverage-of-correctness if you guess 22-Oct-2020, within 5 years.
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Old 2015-10-22, 22:59   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VBCurtis View Post
you double your coverage-of-correctness if you guess 22-Oct-2020, within 5 years.
Unless you think there's another undiscovered discovered prime, like the one that was found and reported to computers, but then not noticed by humans for a few months.
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Old 2015-10-23, 01:45   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mini-Geek View Post
Unless you think there's another undiscovered discovered prime, like the one that was found and reported to computers, but then not noticed by humans for a few months.
Well that's the thing isn't it. If we knew exactly where the prime numbers were going to be, we wouldn't need to fart about with the project. We could just shove in the values, and get the proof pretty much as quick as we pump them out.
So until all the previous LL checks are double/triple checked we won't know for sure that some prime number hater isn't just sneakily providing false residuals for the prime numbers and hoping they don't get double checked.
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Old 2015-10-23, 16:09   #6
ATH
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I hope we find one before 1384 days which is the current (sad) record. That is a record we do not want to break, which means we need to find the next one before Nov 10th 2016, 20:33:52 UTC.
http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpos...&postcount=387

Here is a "count-up" since M57885161: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown...2C885%2C161%29

Code:
M(1398269)	Nov 13 1996
M(2976221)	Aug 24 1997	+284 days
M(3021377)	Jan 27 1998	+156 days
M(6972593)	Jun  1 1999	+490 days
M(13466917)	Nov 14 2001	+897 days
M(20996011)	Nov 17 2003	+733 days
M(24036583)	May 15 2004	+180 days
M(25964951)	Feb 18 2005	+279 days
M(30402457)	Dec 15 2005	+300 days
M(32582657)	Sep  4 2006	+263 days
M(43112609)	Aug 23 2008	+719 days
M(37156667)	Sep  6 2008	 +14 days
M(42643801)	Apr 12 2009	+218 days
M(57885161)	Jan 25 2013	+1384 days
------------------------------------------
			       +5917 days (=455.15 days average)
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Old 2015-10-23, 20:03   #7
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Well although I may be stating the obvious, it really does not depend so much on our productivity as perhaps in the gap (ratio) between primes. Suppose for a moment we have an exponent gap Ratio of 521/127 like we had between the 12th and 13th Mersenne prime.


That would put the next prime in the vecinity of 2^237,000,000 and I would assume that would take us, barring some kind of miracle, well into the 2030's or late 2020's.

So I may be way out of line but rather than discovering a new mersenne prime what would be ideal is that we do a thorugh job of completing the 100,000,000 milestone. Of course if we do that and there is a prime Mn 58,500,000 >n> 100,000,000 that will be discovered too.
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Old 2015-10-24, 00:37   #8
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Where did you get the exact dates for the early discoveries? The wiki could use some updating.
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Old 2015-10-24, 03:57   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Where did you get the exact dates for the early discoveries? The wiki could use some updating.
I think they're all just here:
http://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
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Old 2015-10-24, 05:35   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Madpoo View Post
I think they're all just here:
http://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
He has specific dates from the 1870's and 1880's. I will assume that ones from the 1400's, 1500's, and 1700's are just mid-year place holders.
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Old 2015-10-24, 11:25   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
He has specific dates from the 1870's and 1880's. I will assume that ones from the 1400's, 1500's, and 1700's are just mid-year place holders.
Yes, when there is no exact dates I have used mid-year, or in the case the month is known, mid-month.

I have used the dates from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_prime

If there are any wrong dates there it would, of course, be good if they could be corrected, also adding the best, most reliable source as a reference.

Last fiddled with by aketilander on 2015-10-24 at 11:28
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