
View Poll Results: When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?  
By the end of 2004  2  3.64%  
First half of 2005  9  16.36%  
Second half of 2005  14  25.45%  
First half of 2006  13  23.64%  
Second half of 2006 or later.  17  30.91%  
Voters: 55. You may not vote on this poll 

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20040603, 22:01  #1 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
10001000100000_{2} Posts 
When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?
When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?
We will assume that it is a Mersenne and that the date will be either the date of the report through PrimeNet or of the email to George by a nonPrimeNet searcher. Voters are encouraged to talk about their votes and reasons. Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20040603 at 22:04 
20040603, 22:12  #2 
Aug 2002
A Dyson Sphere
77_{8} Posts 
My guess is first half of 2006. I think it will come then because I don't think that a 10,000,000 digit prime will be discovered until the "normal" testers begin testing those numbers. Remember that although we have made a lot of progress testing 33M numbers the vast majority of our computing power is doing normal first time tests. Based at the current rate of about 5,000,000/year we should get past 33M in the first half of 2006. Then I was optimistic, guessing that we would find a prime there soon after we began testing there in earnest.

20040604, 02:01  #3 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
10001000100000_{2} Posts 
40 views, 9 votes. so far a baby bell curve.

20040604, 02:52  #4 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
21040_{8} Posts 
Feb 13, 2005 7:42 am GMT
Prime Monster will find it. 
20040604, 04:21  #5 
May 2004
This universe
2×17 Posts 
Can't see the leader

20040604, 15:54  #6 
Banned
"Luigi"
Aug 2002
Team Italia
4768_{10} Posts 
I noticed two things:
1  People is working hard on prefactoring 2  Sierpinski and Riesel prime numbers are rapidly growing in size I guess that by the first half of 2005 we'll have our 10,000,000 digits prime. Luigi 
20040604, 19:00  #7 
Sep 2002
Oeiras, Portugal
57E_{16} Posts 
I voted for "2nd half of 2006 or later", because in fact LL leading edge is likely to reach 33M in 1H2006, but there is no guarantee whatsoever that we´ll have a 10M digit prime right there. That´s only where it begins to be possible to find them. So I wouldn´t be surprised if we had to wait until 2007. Unless some nonGIMPSter spoils the party and finds a 10M digit nonMersenne prime before we find a Mersenne...

20040915, 20:45  #8 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2220_{16} Posts 
bump

20040916, 11:36  #9 
Oct 2003
Croatia
456_{10} Posts 
I vote "Second half of 2005". We will see...

20050204, 00:06  #10 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2^{5}×3×7×13 Posts 
Bump
At least 2 people were wrong. 
20050205, 06:29  #11 
"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA
1110000010100_{2} Posts 
My record on publiclyposted predictions is just awful  really poor. So I'm voting "Second half of 2006 or later" for the good of the cause ...

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