mersenneforum.org  

Go Back   mersenneforum.org > Extra Stuff > Soap Box

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2019-01-17, 17:42   #12
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2×1,787 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kladner View Post

My mind changed when I started getting all my news from Alex Jones, Rush Limpblob, and the Cheeto in Chief.
Some of my best pupils! I am proud that members of a vilified minority can be making a real contribution to the enlightenment of mankind.

Dr. Sardonicus, Chief of Client Placement
Frederick Charles Krueger Institution for the Criminally Insane
666 Elm Street NW
Washington, DC 20001
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-17, 17:45   #13
pinhodecarlos
 
pinhodecarlos's Avatar
 
"Carlos Pinho"
Oct 2011
Milton Keynes, UK

5·947 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by henryzz View Post
I am sure she would love the fact that you said that.
You can tell her next time we meet. BTW, tomorrow I’ll be in Cambridge once again.
pinhodecarlos is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-17, 17:50   #14
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2·1,787 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kladner View Post
Let's not forget the vast amounts of methane release by extraction and transport. Also, don't forget that the above-mentioned orange critter is determined to abolish business-killing regulation of such trivia.
Let us also give due consideration to the methane currently sequestered as clathrate ("methane hydrate" or "methane ice") in large areas of the seabed, not too far down. A bit of warming where that stuff is could release a whole lot of methane. There is also quite a bit of methane being released from melting permafrost.
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-17, 17:51   #15
kladner
 
kladner's Avatar
 
"Kieren"
Jul 2011
In My Own Galaxy!

97·103 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Some of my best pupils! I am proud that members of a vilified minority can be making a real contribution to the enlightenment of mankind.

Dr. Sardonicus, Chief of Client Placement
Frederick Charles Krueger Institution for the Criminally Insane
666 Elm Street NW
Washington, DC 20001
ROFL!
kladner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-17, 17:53   #16
kladner
 
kladner's Avatar
 
"Kieren"
Jul 2011
In My Own Galaxy!

97×103 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Let us also give due consideration to the methane currently sequestered as clathrate ("methane hydrate" or "methane ice") in large areas of the seabed, not too far down. A bit of warming where that stuff is could release a whole lot of methane. There is also quite a bit of methane being released from melting permafrost.
Yes. Those are the mechanism of a terrifying feedback loop.
kladner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-17, 18:32   #17
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

1101111101102 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mysticial View Post
But what convinced me it was plausible was the movie Inconvenient Truth.

I don't remember the details of it, but there was a section where Al Gore mentioned that something weather-related had entered a clear and measurable 7-day cycle. The only thing with a 7-day cycle is the 7-day week calendar - which is man made.
I searched the movie transcript for 7-day, seven, week, and cycl. Nothing about a 7-day CO2 cycle. I did however find a reference here. It only claims a localized effect, though.
Quote:
Abstract
We present a new statistic called the "Mean Symmetrized Residual" (MSR) for detection and quantification of a weekly cycle in measured daily atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). At the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, we conclude that CO2 concentrations, on average, are significantly lower (0.022 parts per million by volume, ppmv) on weekends (Saturday-Sunday) than during the rest of the week. Over the past twenty-five years, the variation of the mean values of MSR (as a function of day of the week) has been relatively stable. We speculate that the observed weekday/weekend variation in CO2 at Mauna Loa is the result of anthropogenic emissions on Hawaii and nearby sources. We do not detect a weekly cycle in daily CO2 concentration measured at South Pole, Antarctica. This methodology has applicability to a variety of datasets.

Language English (US)
Journal Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 29
Issue number 2
State Published - Jan 15 2002
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-17, 19:05   #18
wombatman
I moo ablest echo power!
 
wombatman's Avatar
 
May 2013

33038 Posts
Default

Yeah, don't rely on Inconvenient Truth. It's like a less informative Wikipedia article. There's plenty of digestible high-quality summaries available.
wombatman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-17, 19:08   #19
Mysticial
 
Mysticial's Avatar
 
Sep 2016

7×47 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
I searched the movie transcript for 7-day, seven, week, and cycl. Nothing about a 7-day CO2 cycle. I did however find a reference here. It only claims a localized effect, though.
I'll need to rewatch the movie then. It's been more than a decade since I've seen it and my memory is very fuzzy.

Quote:
It only claims a localized effect, though.
I'm not an expert in this area. But if we assume that such a 7-day cycle is man-made, I would certainly expect it to be localized and near a large city. (or somewhere close to the start of the cause-effect chain)

Once you get further out, the periodicity would likely degrade - especially if you have multiple cities who's effects will reach a point with different amplitudes and phase shifts thus making the cycle(s) too noisy to identify. (I guess you could do a Fourier analysis to extract all the independent cycles in a signal - but you'd need a very clean signal to do that.)

So I certainly wouldn't expect anything weekly down in Antarctica.

But the takeaway for me was that this was the very first hard evidence I had ever personally seen that humans can measurably affect the weather - even if minute.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wombatman View Post
Yeah, don't rely on Inconvenient Truth. It's like a less informative Wikipedia article. There's plenty of digestible high-quality summaries available.
It was a good initial source for me. Since I was still in high school and wasn't interested nor capable of reading academic papers. IOW, it's a "climate change for dummies".

Last fiddled with by Mysticial on 2019-01-17 at 19:10
Mysticial is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-18, 01:09   #20
kladner
 
kladner's Avatar
 
"Kieren"
Jul 2011
In My Own Galaxy!

97×103 Posts
Default

Quote:
At the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, we conclude that CO2 concentrations, on average, are significantly lower (0.022 parts per million by volume, ppmv) on weekends (Saturday-Sunday) than during the rest of the week.
You can be pretty sure that the Mauna Loa Observatory has lots of experience measuring gas concentrations. They will also know where those gases are coming from.

Gas emissions from volcanoes are a major activity indicator. CO2 is prominent, along with sulfur oxides in these observations.

Last fiddled with by kladner on 2019-01-18 at 01:10
kladner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-18, 18:47   #21
tServo
 
tServo's Avatar
 
"Marv"
May 2009
near the Tannhäuser Gate

24·3·11 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
There is also quite a bit of methane being released from melting permafrost.
I find youtube videos of scientists throwing a torch on a Siberian lake in Spring and watching it explode and also going onto a swamp and doing the same thing morbidly fascinating and frightening.

If the frozen methane suddenly broke free and surfaced near a city, it could kill thousands.
This has happened to lakes in Africa.
More likely, it would just dribble to the surface in a steady stream.

Fact: Methane is 6 times worse of a greenhouse gas than CO2.

FYI, October 2018 was the 206th CONSECUTIVE month with above average global temperatures.
Now that REALLY depresses me.
tServo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2019-01-18, 19:17   #22
The Carnivore
 
The Carnivore's Avatar
 
Jun 2010

3158 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bgbeuning View Post
The vast majority of scientific papers support that man is causing global warming.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wombatman View Post
Kinda impressive to read such a wholesale denial of climate change given the overwhelming scientific literature providing an array of evidence in favor of it both occurring and being driven beyond natural scales by our contributions.
There is no overwhelming evidence or support on global warming. At best, there is a vague, general agreement that humans have an effect on global temperatures, but the magnitude of that effect is fiercely debated. I can also say that I'm raising sea levels by throwing some rocks into the ocean and displacing some water, even though the corresponding rise would be negligible.

The issue isn't even close to being settled. There's no 99% consensus, 97% consensus, or even a 90% consensus: https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenerg.../#b7abf9611576

"Given these results, it is clear that support among scientists for human-caused climate change is below 97%. Most studies including specialties other than climatologists find support in the range of 80% to 90%. The 97% consensus of scientists, when used without limitation to climate scientists, is false.

In the strict sense, the 97% consensus is false, even when limited to climate scientists. The 2016 Cook review found the consensus to be “shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists.” One survey found it to be 84%. Continuing to claim 97% support is deceptive. I find the 97% consensus of climate scientists to be overstated."

If it really were a clear fact, why is there such a significant amount of disagreement on it? There are wackos out there who think that the Earth is flat, but the percentage of scientists who disagree with the flat Earth theory isn't 84% or 90%, it's 99.999%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kladner View Post

My mind changed when I started getting all my news from Alex Jones, Rush Limpblob, and the Cheeto in Chief.
Among Republicans, more education = more skepticism of global warming:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/182159/...l-warming.aspx
If anything, you'd expect the opposite. College-educated people are underrepresented in the coal mines, oil fields, and trucking industry, and reducing fossil fuel production would directly threaten those jobs. The more likely explanation is that college-educated Republicans are more likely to question global warming than their non-college educated brethren because the former are taught to see through all that BS.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wombatman View Post
Also, you sure as shit need to provide actual citations for claims such as this: "CO2 is just one of many greenhouse gases, and water vapor is the largest contributor to the greenhouse effect. But more importantly, the effect of CO2 on the climate is not linear, and each additional molecule of CO2 contributes less to the greenhouse effect than the molecule before it. Raising the CO2 concentration from the current ~410 ppm to 550 ppm will have much less of an effect than raising it from the pre-industrial ~270 ppm to the current ~410 ppm, even though both involve an increase of 140 ppm. If CO2 does indeed cause almost all of the supposed warming we see, we have already experienced the most dramatic changes."
The logarithmic effect of CO2 is easily Googled and agreed upon by virtually everyone. The IPCC uses the equation: radiative forcing in watts = 5.35*ln(CO2/CO2ref). To calculate their radiative forcing increase for the present day, CO2 = current CO2 concentration in ppm, and CO2ref = pre-industrial CO2 concentration in ppm. To calculate their predicted radiative forcing increases, CO2 = future CO2 concentration in ppm, and CO2ref = current CO2 concentration in ppm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Let us also give due consideration to the methane currently sequestered as clathrate ("methane hydrate" or "methane ice") in large areas of the seabed, not too far down. A bit of warming where that stuff is could release a whole lot of methane. There is also quite a bit of methane being released from melting permafrost.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kladner View Post
Yes. Those are the mechanism of a terrifying feedback loop.
And what about the other negative feedback loops? Among global warming believers, a leading theory is that global warming will rapidly increase the melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and the non-salty melt-water would shutdown or slowdown the Gulf Stream current that carries warm water to Europe and the North Atlantic. If that were the case, wouldn't the cooler weather stop the Greenland Ice Sheet melt?

And speaking of oceans:
Quote:
your "sanity check" is based on a false premise; namely, that the temperature of the entire volume of water in Earth's oceans is being raised by the same amount. I haven't seen this being claimed by anyone. I believe this is what is called a "straw man."
OK, so let's say that just the top layer of the ocean is being warmed by 1 degree, and that the rest of the ocean remains the same temperature. Wouldn't the layers eventually mix? The top layer would cool down and transfer that heat to the deep ocean. I see no reason why this wouldn't occur - the thermohaline circulation plunges surface waters into the deep ocean and vice-versa all the time.

Quote:
Just after you got done saying that temperature measurements, even in recent history, are unreliable, you rely on statements of temperature (and CO2 concentrations also) from times before our species even existed
The difference is in the orders of magnitude. Statements of temperature from times long before our species existed can be determined because they were up to 10 degrees C hotter than the present day. However, the alleged warming we're observing today is just fractions of a degree higher than the temperatures from a century ago.
The Carnivore is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Warming cold ∞ xilman Lounge 7 2013-01-21 20:38
Global Cooling / Climate Change Information Campaign cheesehead Soap Box 9 2012-04-14 03:12
Georgia on my mind davieddy Soap Box 5 2008-08-18 22:30
Terrorism or Global Warming Pablo the Duck Soap Box 17 2004-04-29 14:19
Who's warming? nomadicus Lounge 17 2003-08-20 08:19

All times are UTC. The time now is 19:13.

Mon Oct 26 19:13:50 UTC 2020 up 46 days, 16:24, 0 users, load averages: 1.69, 1.75, 1.85

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum has received and complied with 0 (zero) government requests for information.

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation.
A copy of the license is included in the FAQ.