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Old 2020-07-24, 17:23   #45
masser
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ben Delo View Post
At my current rate I predict a 10-20% chance per year of finding a MP.
Over time, if you add to or upgrade the hardware you're using (the forum shudders), that rate could conceivably increase.
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Old 2020-07-24, 18:02   #46
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Recent past progress and rate
An extrapolation with big assumptions, made in December 2018 (IIRC, before Ben Delo ramped up primality testing rate)
Note, multiplying testing effort by n does not make exponents complete n times faster for long, since it speeds reaching the point in exponent where a test is n times more costly. Effort to do a % range in p is ~(O)p3. 10(1/3) is ~2.15.
The PRP proof / verification change is worth 2(1/3) ~1.26. The combination is 2.71:1 for a 20fold throughput increase. 91M milestone x 2.71 ~247M.
We'll take it. And will keep looking for any algorithm or code improvements, hardware improvements, new recruits, etc. It's a stiff problem.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2020-07-24 at 18:08
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Old 2020-08-16, 20:31   #47
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Yesterday I did a little number-crunch based on Friday's Top500 data ... Ben's accumulated GHz-yrs for the past year amount to ~1.6x the sum of the remaining Top500 totals. This is of course a colossal amount of throughput, but what interests me is the trend. ISTR the tests-per-day count was running ~1000 for a few months earlier this year, but that has slowly trended back down to the 600-700 tests/day range, at the same time the average throughput of the general membership has been continually increasing, as people upgrade their gear and add more GPUs to the mix. Has anyone been tracking the tests/day over time?
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Old 2020-08-18, 17:41   #48
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Edit : I think you can have an accurate reporting in mersenne.ca (GIMPS Progress vizualization)

Last fiddled with by De Wandelaar on 2020-08-18 at 18:12
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Old 2020-08-20, 02:26   #49
ATH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ewmayer View Post
Yesterday I did a little number-crunch based on Friday's Top500 data ... Ben's accumulated GHz-yrs for the past year amount to ~1.6x the sum of the remaining Top500 totals. This is of course a colossal amount of throughput, but what interests me is the trend. ISTR the tests-per-day count was running ~1000 for a few months earlier this year, but that has slowly trended back down to the 600-700 tests/day range, at the same time the average throughput of the general membership has been continually increasing, as people upgrade their gear and add more GPUs to the mix. Has anyone been tracking the tests/day over time?
I found some data in my backups of https://www.mersenne.org/primenet/ which is used to generate this hourly automatic report: GIMPSstats.html

Attached is the data and chart from Jan 1st 2019 to now. It is the number of LL+PRP tests combined per day in the complete range up to 1B, where each day goes from midnight to midnight UTC time.
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Last fiddled with by ATH on 2020-08-20 at 02:27
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Old 2020-08-20, 20:09   #50
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Thanks, Andreas - so sustained peak over 800/day for ~3 weeks early this year, since then rolling 7-day average looks to have been holding more or less steady ~600/day.

I wonder what that huge plunge-followed-by-even-huger spike roughly 1 month ago was about. Maybe a server-offline issue?
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Old 2020-08-20, 22:06   #51
Prime95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ewmayer View Post
I wonder what that huge plunge-followed-by-even-huger spike roughly 1 month ago was about. Maybe a server-offline issue?
Yes, the primenet server refused PRP results for about 18 hours. I manually applied the dropped results the next day.
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Old 2020-08-22, 00:13   #52
Chuck
 
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Default Ben, PRP, CERTs and version 30

I see that Ben Delo is doing CERTs so he must have version 30 installed. But I don't see a wave of his completed PRPs requesting CERTs.

I really don't understand how Amazon Web Services works. Will he have do do a bunch of changes to install version 30 on each of his virtual machines, or is everything driven from some central point?
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Old 2020-08-22, 02:01   #53
Uncwilly
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I have run a Cert on an exponent that Ben has run and vice versa.
Some of his are self certs: 98550509, 98533321, 98540083

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2020-08-22 at 02:05
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Old 2020-08-22, 02:09   #54
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I just now got one of Ben's CERTs to run.
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Old 2020-08-22, 02:17   #55
Batalov
 
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Pardon my ignorance but what are these CERTs?
Certificates of compositeness?
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