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Old 2019-07-22, 22:43   #12
xilman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
To US Pacific Fleet Commander, ~Dec 3 1941:To save thousands of lives immediately, many more by shortening the war, and what he could do in thanks for the warning.
Be careful for what you wish, in case you receive it.

A number of respected historians have examined this counterfactual, Some of the possible consequences include the Japanese succeeding in creating their Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere to the detriment of everywhere else in the region and, as a consequence of the US not joining in WWII until possibly too late, Germany developing practical nuclear weapons before the US. In real history Germany developed a usable IRBM (the A3 aka V2) and the A4, an ICBM, was just about off the drawing board.

You may well have seen the nuking of NYC and/or DC.
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Old 2019-07-23, 00:25   #13
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It actually does not take a drastic/direct change to completely alter the history/Time-branch.
The slightest difference in the smallest of the particles in the universe will result in a different outcome for the largest events.
The Butterfly-Effect is an un-intuitive but real effect:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

I see it at work everyday in my overly simple parametric-models.
Today a client requested to mirror the location-configuration of some equipment.
Noone, including myself expected this to alter the size of the equipment room. The asymmetry in the equipment caused the piping to extend beyond the pervious room boundaries.
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Old 2019-07-23, 00:33   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
To US Pacific Fleet Commander, ~Dec 3 1941:To save thousands of lives immediately, many more by shortening the war, and what he could do in thanks for the warning.

Fleet leave Pearl heading NW 12/6/41 on high alert. Japanese air attack 12/7/41. Trust RADAR 0700!
Buy xxxx Kriesel 100 shares Haloid Corp.
2 things could happen a) The fleet comander could end with his bones in jail for insider trading. Perhaps you too but I am assuming you were a minor (or unborn in) 1941. The Securiries Act of 1933 frowned upon –this wording "frowned upon" is of course a gross undersatement– people with knowledge that was not readily available to every potential investor who purchased for themselves or through an agent shares of a company and thus made an extraordinary gain.

Another thing that may have happened is that because there was no War or a short War with Japan, shares of Xerox may tank in 1969 and you get Zero Zilch zip, nada! On the other hand, Mitsubishi shares grow exponentially...
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Old 2019-07-23, 00:54   #15
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Sink the boat of christopher colombus and don't accept the gift of its ilk.
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Old 2019-07-24, 13:38   #16
LaurV
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It is called MNC, and only a good technician can do it. One like Andrew Harlan.
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Old 2019-07-24, 17:31   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a1call View Post
It actually does not take a drastic/direct change to completely alter the history/Time-branch.
The slightest difference in the smallest of the particles in the universe will result in a different outcome for the largest events.
The Butterfly-Effect is an un-intuitive but real effect:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

I see it at work everyday in my overly simple parametric-models.
Today a client requested to mirror the location-configuration of some equipment.
Noone, including myself expected this to alter the size of the equipment room. The asymmetry in the equipment caused the piping to extend beyond the pervious room boundaries.
As an example: Making any changes to the timeline prior to your birth - even if seemingly causally disconnected, can either wipe yourself from existence or turn you into a completely different person.

The reasoning here is that conception is a major source of chaos. It is very sensitive to inputs and the effects are huge.

Which sperm meets the egg will heavily determine who the person becomes. But which one "wins" is effectively a lottery that will be extremely sensitive to timing. So even if your parents have already met and are planning to have you anyway, something as simple as a catchy news article on the internet at the right time can slow down one party enough affect the "winner" - thereby completely changing who you become.
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Old 2019-07-24, 23:26   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mysticial View Post
As an example: Making any changes to the timeline prior to your birth - even if seemingly causally disconnected, can either wipe yourself from existence or turn you into a completely different person.

The reasoning here is that conception is a major source of chaos. It is very sensitive to inputs and the effects are huge.

Which sperm meets the egg will heavily determine who the person becomes. But which one "wins" is effectively a lottery that will be extremely sensitive to timing. So even if your parents have already met and are planning to have you anyway, something as simple as a catchy news article on the internet at the right time can slow down one party enough affect the "winner" - thereby completely changing who you become.
i believe there is a dampening of the ripple caused by an alteration in history. For instance, suppose Gral. Patton would have died three weeks before or three weeks after, things might be different a few weeks later but after Ten years the ripple efect would be attenuated and the "GENERAL" course of history would not change. I believe Mao would still have taken over China (maybe a few days earlier o a few days after it happened), the man would have reached the moon, perhaps a few weeks after o a few weeks before. Cell phones and personal computers would still exist, Mersenne prime 282589933-1 would have been proven prime, etc.

I can offer somewhat anecdotical proof. Suppose right now I have two options. (BINARY CHOICE) Either I drink a glass of fresh milk or I do not drink the glass of milk at all. Do you suppose there would be a different outcome to the BREXIT question on October 31st depending on if I drink the glass of milk or not?

Do you think that let's say George W. Bush will live a day or a week longer subject to me deciding for or against drinking the milk just now? Do you think the next president of the US would be a different person on January 2021 subject to my decision?
Maybe it will change my life for a few hours, perhaps even for a day but I suspect that a year from now things would be pretty much the same.

The same thing would work for more momentous acts. If Robert F. Kennedy would have not been shot in Los Angeles 51 years ago certainly things would have been different for a few months even years but in the course of human history let's say 70 years things would be pretty much the same.


Indidentally, i did not drink the milk.
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Old 2019-07-25, 00:42   #19
Mysticial
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rudy235 View Post
i believe there is a dampening of the ripple caused by an alteration in history. For instance, suppose Gral. Patton would have died three weeks before or three weeks after, things might be different a few weeks later but after Ten years the ripple efect would be attenuated and the "GENERAL" course of history would not change. I believe Mao would still have taken over China (maybe a few days earlier o a few days after it happened), the man would have reached the moon, perhaps a few weeks after o a few weeks before. Cell phones and personal computers would still exist, Mersenne prime 282589933-1 would have been proven prime, etc.

I can offer somewhat anecdotical proof. Suppose right now I have two options. (BINARY CHOICE) Either I drink a glass of fresh milk or I do not drink the glass of milk at all. Do you suppose there would be a different outcome to the BREXIT question on October 31st depending on if I drink the glass of milk or not?

Do you think that let's say George W. Bush will live a day or a week longer subject to me deciding for or against drinking the milk just now? Do you think the next president of the US would be a different person on January 2021 subject to my decision?
Maybe it will change my life for a few hours, perhaps even for a day but I suspect that a year from now things would be pretty much the same.

The same thing would work for more momentous acts. If Robert F. Kennedy would have not been shot in Los Angeles 51 years ago certainly things would have been different for a few months even years but in the course of human history let's say 70 years things would be pretty much the same.


Indidentally, i did not drink the milk.
I agree. The chaos remains contained at the low level. But the at the global level, things will probably remain somewhat convergent. There will still be a space race, the major global issues and conflicts will probably still happen as those tend to be the long term averages.

So across these parallel universes, the history may be similar, but the individuals involved will be completely different.

Though if we assume that level of low-level chaos, then certain major events that hinge on specific individuals (such as Adolf Hitler) will probably have larger differences - potentially enough to swing history. So then the question becomes what's the "probability" of someone like Hitler being born out of the masses and the situation leading up to WW2. Is our world line unlucky that we had Hitler? Or did we get lucky because there were others who weren't born because a gust of wind caused a different sperm to reach the egg.

(I'm making a huge assumption here that Hitler was critical to WW2. The circumstances that contributed to WW2 were already in motion. So it's possible that without Hitler, someone else just as evil could have taken his place. Such a person may even have existed in our current timeline, but we don't hear about it because the circumstances didn't lead to the person coming to power at the right time.)

Getting back to the point, this actually gives an additional unexpected parallels with the concept of the "attactor fields" in the Steins;Gate Anime universe. The idea is that the "general direction" of world lines that are near each other tend to stay together and approach the same result. But within those fields, each individual world line may differ from others in minor details. (though the Anime series has more concepts that are probably more unrealistic)

Last fiddled with by Mysticial on 2019-07-25 at 00:42
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Old 2019-07-31, 06:30   #20
LaurV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rudy235 View Post
I can offer somewhat anecdotical proof. Suppose right now I have two options. (BINARY CHOICE)
This means, you have a decision to make. See here, at about 3:40.

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Old 2019-08-05, 17:41   #21
kriesel
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xilman View Post
Be careful for what you wish, in case you receive it.

A number of respected historians have examined this counterfactual, Some of the possible consequences include the Japanese succeeding in creating their Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere to the detriment of everywhere else in the region and, as a consequence of the US not joining in WWII until possibly too late, Germany developing practical nuclear weapons before the US. In real history Germany developed a usable IRBM (the A3 aka V2) and the A4, an ICBM, was just about off the drawing board.

You may well have seen the nuking of NYC and/or DC.
I think the ambush at Pearl was not necessary for the US entry into WWII. Had the hostilities initiated with an aware at-sea Pacific fleet, same-day, rather than the severe losses in port that occurred, the Philippines might have been spared a couple years under the Japanese. An attack fleet sailing to Hawaii and the Japanese air attack on the island would have still resulted in the US declaration of war on about the same day. It's impossible to tell though, if thousands of US servicemen survived Dec 7 1941, what the individual genetic and life-choice ripple effects would be.

Re the stock tip, such could be structured to not affect me negatively, I think, and to increase my odds of surviving to adulthood well above what they were. What I had in mind was my grandfather being the recipient.

Aside from possible causality loop paradoxes, what's the minimum number of lives saved for you to consider risking or trading your life?

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2019-08-05 at 18:06
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Old 2019-08-05, 17:49   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mysticial View Post
Though if we assume that level of low-level chaos, then certain major events that hinge on specific individuals (such as Adolf Hitler) will probably have larger differences - potentially enough to swing history. So then the question becomes what's the "probability" of someone like Hitler being born out of the masses and the situation leading up to WW2. Is our world line unlucky that we had Hitler? Or did we get lucky
If no Hitler, perhaps the National Socialist German Workers party is a small historical footnote and the German Communist Party comes to power instead. Lebensraum struck a chord in the populace. Consider what a 1937 Communist Germany with its economic and military resources might have meant for Europe and the rest of the world. Or the USSR not turning on Germany during WWII, but seeing it as a kindred spirit. Or a communist led Germany not attacking the USSR. Supposedly Hitler was a control freak and a night owl and constrained his field commanders to get his permission and people were afraid to disturb him until afternoon. The Normandy invasion reportedly worked because permission to respond effectively was delayed by hours. That's history coming down to one man's personal habits and the consequences that flow from them.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2019-08-05 at 17:51
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