mersenneforum.org > Data [Mission Accomplished] Let's finish primality verification through Mp#48*, M(57 885 161)
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 2021-09-15, 17:07 #34 Uncwilly 6809 > 6502     """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 999410 Posts On a related topic: I was wondering how the spread of PRP with cert is impacting the DC vs FTC balance. So I went and pulled a bunch of old work distribution files from Archive.org. I initially grabbed 1 a month for the last year or so and less frequent back to the end of 2015. I summed the factored, the verified, and those with only a FTC from 0M to (but excluding) 150M. That revealed a decided and dramatic change in exponents that only had FTC and no DC in 2020 first up then down. We hit a peak on or about 19 August 2020 of 843737 FTC's awaiting verification. As of 13 September 2021 we are at 778878, down 64859 from the peak. A rough projection puts this gap closing around 2031AD I will be gathering more data before releasing a graph of this. There is a huge inflection in the count of verified exponents at the same point that the FTC's peaked.
 2021-09-16, 16:10 #35 Dr Sardonicus     Feb 2017 Nowhere 3·1,657 Posts I note that the Countdown to verifying all tests below M(57 885 161) has 25 "D" (LL Doublecheck) assignments. On August 21 there were 107 such assignments, according to this post. Of the 25 assignments now remaining, 12 have negative ETAs (in days); that is, they are "past due." They are overdue by from 13 to 50 days. Of the 12 "overdue" assignments, 7 are assigned to the same user. Those 7 are overdue by 14, 18, 21, 22, 26, 30, and 39 days.
 2021-09-16, 16:46 #36 firejuggler     Apr 2010 Over the rainbow 2·33·72 Posts The one 'overdue' at -50 days is 99.5% done, I have hope. Last fiddled with by firejuggler on 2021-09-16 at 16:46
2021-09-16, 17:38   #37
kriesel

"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

132148 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus On August 21 there were 107 such assignments, according to this post.
And both exponents identified as limiting in that post have been verified.

Looking at it again today, at 25 remaining, as 3 groups, sorted by estimated completion:

14 are not updating for over a week, with latest expiration in 10 days M57836003; these will complete, or reissue, in 10 days or less, & if reissued, likely complete in ~17 days or less (~2021-10-03)

7 are updating currently and ETA is sooner than expiration, with last ETA 2021-09-22 in this group, latest expiration 27 days, so if one stops updating it might take until ~2021-10-13 to reissue and ~2021-10-20 to complete; that's unlikely because it's ATH's M57514837 and he's reliable; also Syntony is crushing the next longest expiration 22 days with 2 days to go on M57779987;

4 are recently or currently updating but ETA is later than expiration, expiring within 6 days; reissue and completion by ~2021-09-29.

Completion of verification to Mp#48* is the last of those dates, probably by 2021-10-03, maybe as late as ~2021-10-20 if we get an unlucky stall among the several now updating with ETAs of 6 days or less or a reissued exponent.
AndersM's assignment of 57555247 is indicative of speed of Cat0-capable systems: 6 days start to finish.

To get to greenskull's revised estimate ~2021-11-16, we'd need an additional stall on such an exponent following, or a very slow execution for a Cat0-qualified system, and no poaching in response.

The lowest 5 remaining exponents are
Code:
exponent stage exp ETA last update      Probable course
57223591 90.3%  20  0  2021-09-15 clears in a day; lowest remaining exponent becomes 57256631, delta 33,040
57256631 69.9%  20  3  2021-09-16 clears in a few days; lowest remaining jumps to 57555247, delta 298,616
57514837  8.7%  27  0  2021-09-15 clears in a day; has no effect on lowest remaining exponent
57555247         9  6  2021-09-16 clears in 6 days
57641957 86.7%   3  6  2021-09-14 expires & reissues in a few days
Attached Thumbnails

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-09-16 at 18:12

 2021-09-17, 11:11 #38 greenskull Xebeche     Apr 2019 🌺🙏🌺 1010111002 Posts Current situation. Just in case, I made two quadratic approximations -- green curves. First one with the previous kriesel's prediction 03 Oct 2021, the second one without that prediction. It seems to me that we will definitely fly far past October 03, but apparently within the limits of my red dotted tube. Unless, of course, a miracle happens :) I am still sticking to my early prediction Nov 16, 2021. Last fiddled with by greenskull on 2021-09-17 at 11:23
 2021-09-17, 14:04 #39 kriesel     "TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17" Mar 2017 US midwest 10110100011002 Posts From https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...tf=1&exfirst=1 near time of posting: Code: exponent stage exp ETA last update Probable course (57223591 cleared 2021-09-16) 57256631 79.4% 20 2 2021-09-17 clears in 2 days; lowest remaining jumps to 57555247, delta 298,616 57514837 8.7% 27 -1 2021-09-15 overdue; user contacted by PM to investigate; may have no effect on lowest remaining exponent 57555247 8 5 2021-09-16 clears in 5 days 57641957 91.3% 2 5 2021-09-14 expires & reissues in 2 days 57650269 72.3% 2 12 2021-09-15 not progressing, expires & reissues in 2 days, completes ~2021-09-26 57256631 completing 2021-09-19 along with 57514837 would make 57555247 lowest remaining then, which would put that (date,lowest-remaining) point left of both green curves of the previous post. Not a miracle, just normal progress. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-09-17 at 14:08
2021-09-17, 22:24   #40
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502

"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

234128 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly On a related topic: ... I will be gathering more data before releasing a graph of this. There is a huge inflection in the count of verified exponents at the same point that the FTC's peaked.
Here is the graph. The straight line is just an eyeball fit of the slope. The trend line will get better as more data is added over time. I will adjust the y-axis later to max it out at the total count of unfactored in the range.
Attached Thumbnails

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2021-09-17 at 22:26

 2021-09-19, 01:14 #41 kriesel     "TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17" Mar 2017 US midwest 22×3×13×37 Posts From https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...&exp1=1&extf=1 near time of posting, 20 remain. Some recent completions, and the lowest 5 remaining: Code: exponent stage exp ETA last update Probable course 57256631 cleared 2021-09-18 57514837 cleared 2021-09-18 57555247 0.9% 26 3 2021-09-18 now lowest unverified exponent (delta 298516 since 2021-09-17); clears ~2021-09-24 57641957 cleared 2021-09-18 57650269 72.3% 0 12 2021-09-15 not progressing, expires & reissues within a day, clears ~2021-09-26 57727781 97.4% 2 -1 2021-09-17 completes or reissues by 2021-09-20; completes by ~2021-09-27 57728663 29.7% 2 -17 2021-08-04 expires and reissues 2021-09-20, completes ~2021-09-27 57730297 81.6% 2 -6 2021-09-06 expires and reissues 2021-09-20, completes ~2021-09-27 Attached Thumbnails   Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-09-19 at 01:25
 2021-09-19, 08:13 #42 greenskull Xebeche     Apr 2019 🌺🙏🌺 34810 Posts Kriesel's prediction of the high jump came true. But usually, after each such jump, we observe a protracted decline in growth dynamics. I admit that the cherished moment may come somewhere in the middle between our predictions, but I don’t undertake to assert this reliably yet, therefore I leave my previous prediction in force.
2021-09-19, 14:15   #43
kriesel

"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

577210 Posts

In tracking the 56M verification milestone, it went from 21 remaining, to 0, in ~12.3 days.
(At 2021-06-15 14:00:07 21 left; 2021-06-27 21:30:09 0 left; UTC I believe, not that it matters in computing a delta)
Today, there are 20 remaining in verification up to Mp#48*. 2021-09-19 + 12d = 2021-10-01. Greenskull would have us believe along with him that somehow for no reason given that this time will be markedly different; 2021-11-16 is 46 days later, nearly 5-fold longer from now than the previous experience (12+46)/12 ~4.83, or maybe reaching Mp#48* comes in the middle, only ~2.5 times longer than the previous experience.

The current lowest unverified exponent, 57555247, has made progress consistent with completion in ~5 more days.
That will be another ~100K jump, leaving only ~230K to go on exponent value.

There is acceleration at the end partly because reissued assignments are all Cat0 to known fast reliable systems.
A given span of say 250K in exponent value gets more thinly populated with remaining exponents over time, making larger deltas of lowest remaining exponent value more likely, and smaller ones less likely. The average delta between sorted remaining exponent values is now over 16,500. As intermediate exponents complete, the deltas between their remaining neighbors increase.

Linear extrapolation does not allow for the acceleration that's known to occur, both observed empirically and for known good reasons/mechanisms including those built into the assignment rules.
As in chess and other situations, in GIMPS milestone approach, the end game is not like the mid game.
Attached Files
 mp48starexponentdeltas.pdf (14.4 KB, 21 views)

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-09-19 at 15:10

2021-09-19, 14:52   #44
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502

"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

999410 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kriesel As in chess and other situations, in GIMPS milestone approach, the end game is not like the mid game.
And not all of the pieces are on the table.

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