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Old 2014-03-16, 19:38   #23
WMHalsdorf
 
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B) If 23 ... Rxf6 24. Be4 bxc looks to good for Black
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Old 2014-03-17, 04:03   #24
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[QUOTE=WMHalsdorf;369123]B) If 23 ... Rxf6 24. Be4 bxc looks to good for Black[/QUOTE]... just as it looks good after our other move 24 candidates, right?

The point of Be4 is that after ... bxc3 bxc3, we can put our rook on the b-file on the next move after that one, leaving Black no window in which to bring his R/b8 to an unguarded square in the midst of our queen-side.

Is there any other move 24 candidate after which ... bxc3 is less favorable for Black than it is in the [b]24 Be4[/b] line?
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Old 2014-03-17, 08:14   #25
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[QUOTE=WMHalsdorf;369123]B) If 23 ... Rxf6 24. Be4 bxc looks to good for Black[/QUOTE]Yes, you're right!

I'm sorry; I lost focus again. (Real-life disstractions)

[QUOTE=cheesehead;369163]... just as < snip >[/QUOTE]Oops.

[U]I temporarily forgot the importance of our d4 problem![/U]

Revised [strike]& extended[/strike] contracted list of candidates for our [B]move 24[/B] (that's the move AFTER our current move choice of [B]23 exf6[/B], whose posting deadline is [URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=368817&postcount=132"]Wednesday, March 19 10:01 UT[/URL]):

A) If 23 ... [B]B[/B]xf6

[B]24 Be3[/B] (admits that Bd2 was a mistake and deters d4 threat)

[B]24 Ne4[/B]
If 24 ... Nxd4 25 Nxf6+ and 26 cxd4

[B]24 Bxh6[/B]
If 24 ... Rh8 25 Rxf6 Rxh6 26 Ne3 and we're a pawn up, plus threaten to win more, but must watch out for ... bxc3 and ... Rb2 etc. counterplay. [I]Also must watch for d4 threat if there's no bishop swap.[/I]

[B]24 [/B](anything else that does something to deter the d4 threat?)

[strike]24 Ne3[/strike] Blocks the bishop check from d4, but does not deter the threat of rook and knight fork by bishop on d4.

[strike]24 Bf4[/strike] 24 ... e5 is an adequate response.

- - -

B) If 23 ... [B]R[/B]xf6

[B]24 Be3[/B] (admits that Bd2 was a mistake and deters d4 threat)
If 24 ... Rxf1+ 25 Kxf1 bxc3 26 bxc3 -- with no drama on d4.Then, maybe Be4 and Rb1 to bring our remaining rook into play.

[B]24 Bf4
[/B]If 24 ... Rb6 25 Bc7. So, [B]24 ... Ra8 25 Ne3[/B], possibly continuing 25 ... g5 26 Bc7 (threatening 27 Nxc4 and 28 Nd6++) Ra7 27 Bb6 Ra8 28 Nxc4. If 28 ... Rxf1+ 29 Rxf1 and Black must defend carefully.
If 24 ... e5 25 dxe5 Rf8 (not ... Rf5 26 Ne3 or ... Rf7 26 e6) 26 e6 (not Ne3 g5) Ra8 27 Ne3 and maybe 27 ... g5 28 Bc7 Ra7 29 Bb6 Ra8 30 Nxc4 etc.
If 24 ... bxc3 25 Bxb8 cxb2 26 Rb1 Rxf1+ 27 Kxf1. If 27 ... Bxd4 28 Bd6 [U]But we still have to analyze 25 ... c2 in this line.[/U]

[B]24 Re1[/B] (avoid rook swap, attack isolated e6-pawn in order to burden the R/f6 with pawn-guard duty. If Black intends to try Nxd4 and Bxd4+, he first has to move his rook out of the way, [I]but we must then follow-up with something to deter the d4 threat[/I])

[B]24 Rxf6[/B] (resolves the f-file tension now, [I]but needs to be followed-up by something to deter the d4 threat[/I])

[B]24 [/B](anything else that does something to deter the d4 threat?)

[strike]24 Ne3[/strike] Blocks the bishop check from d4, but does not deter the threat of rook and knight fork by bishop on d4.

[strike]24 Nf2[/strike] Blocks the bishop check from d4, but does not deter the threat of rook and knight fork by bishop on d4.

[strike]24 Ne4 (gets N off the g1-c5 diagonal, prepares Nd6+)[/strike] ... does nothing to deter the d4 threat.

[strike]24 Be4 (prepares future Rb1)[/strike] ... does nothing to deter the d4 threat.

[strike]24 Rf2 (in order to retake with Nxf2 after ... Rxf2)[/strike] ... does nothing to deter the d4 threat.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-03-17 at 08:35
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Old 2014-03-17, 13:09   #26
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Correction:
[QUOTE=cheesehead;369176]< snip >

B) If 23 ... [B]R[/B]xf6

< snip >

[strike][strike]24 Ne3[/strike] Blocks the bishop check from d4, but does not deter the threat of rook and knight fork by bishop on d4.[/strike]
[/QUOTE][B]24 Ne3[/B] By enabling Rxf1 re-take after ... Rxf1+ (or any other move by the R/a1, thus also removing it from the a1-d4 diagonal), and by blocking a bishop check from d4, this does meet the threat of bishop check from d4.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-03-17 at 13:11
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Old 2014-03-17, 15:39   #27
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[QUOTE=cheesehead;369176]
B) If 23 ... [B]R[/B]xf6

[STRIKE][B]24 Be3[/B] (admits that Bd2 was a mistake and deters d4 threat)
If 24 ... Rxf1+ 25 Kxf1 bxc3 26 bxc3 -- with no drama on d4.Then, maybe Be4 and Rb1 to bring our remaining rook into play.
[/STRIKE]

[B]24 Bf4
[/B]If 24 ... Rb6 25 Bc7. So, [B]24 ... Ra8 25 Ne3[/B], possibly continuing 25 ... g5 26 Bc7 (threatening 27 Nxc4 and 28 Nd6++) Ra7 27 Bb6 Ra8 28 Nxc4. If 28 ... Rxf1+ 29 Rxf1 and Black must defend carefully.
If 24 ... e5 25 dxe5 Rf8 (not ... Rf5 26 Ne3 or ... Rf7 26 e6) 26 e6 (not Ne3 g5) Ra8 27 Ne3 and maybe 27 ... g5 28 Bc7 Ra7 29 Bb6 Ra8 30 Nxc4 etc.
If 24 ... bxc3 25 Bxb8 cxb2 26 Rb1 Rxf1+ 27 Kxf1. If 27 ... Bxd4 28 Bd6 [U]But we still have to analyze 25 ... c2 in this line.[/U]

[B]24 Re1[/B] (avoid rook swap, attack isolated e6-pawn in order to burden the R/f6 with pawn-guard duty. If Black intends to try Nxd4 and Bxd4+, he first has to move his rook out of the way, [I]but we must then follow-up with something to deter the d4 threat[/I])

[STRIKE][B]24 Rxf6[/B] (resolves the f-file tension now, [I]but needs to be followed-up by something to deter the d4 threat[/I])

[B]24 [/B](anything else that does something to deter the d4 threat?)

[/STRIKE][/QUOTE]

Be3 is weak. Also Rxf6. The "promising moves" for version B are only

B1) 24 Bf4 (with all the analysis we already did, this is the most aggressive and seems to be our best reply for now)

B2) 24 Re1 (this is not studied enough, it seems to be the safest way, but it is not so aggressive as Bf4, another "cons" is that the position is kind of complicate after it, but it seems to be safer than Bf4, they can't do much after it)

B3) 24 Rc1 - this move was not in discussion, but the outcome is quite promising, as we can directly capture c4 in few of the versions, and we also ca hook the knight in the back.

We still have some advantage in all three situations, but the game is not an easy win.

Now, let's not forget that we have yet to play move 23!

And we can continue analysis after. I am 100% they will reply by "version B", looking more and more, the other version is really bad for black.

When should we play it? Tomorrow evening (my time utc+7) ok?
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Old 2014-03-17, 18:19   #28
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[QUOTE=LaurV;369198]Be3 is weak. Also Rxf6.[/QUOTE]I agree that the alternatives are better, so I'll cross them off the list.

[quote]B3) 24 Rc1 - this move was not in discussion, but the outcome is quite promising, as we can directly capture c4 in few of the versions, and we also ca hook the knight in the back.[/quote]Good suggestion.

[quote]Now, let's not forget that we have yet to play move 23!

< snip >

When should we play it? Tomorrow evening (my time utc+7) ok?[/quote]Fine - that's several hours before the deadline.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

The move 24 candidate list, after removing all previously crossed-out moves and incorporating LaurV's latest ideas:

A) If 23 ... [B]B[/B]xf6

[B]24 Ne4[/B]
If 24 ... Nxd4 25 Nxf6+ and 26 cxd4 (defuses the d4 fork-threat)

[B]24 Bxh6[/B]
If 24 ... Rh8 25 Rxf6 Rxh6 26 Ne3 and we're a pawn up, plus threaten to win more, but must watch out for ... bxc3 and ... Rb2 etc. counterplay. [I]Also must still watch for d4 [/I][I]fork-threat if there's no bishop swap.[/I]

[strike]24 Be3[/strike] (deters the d4 fork-threat, but otherwise is inferior to alternatives)

- - -

B) If 23 ... [B]R[/B]xf6

[B]24 Bf4
[/B]If 24 ... Rb6 25 Bc7. So, [B]24 ... Ra8 25 Ne3[/B], possibly continuing 25 ... g5 26 Bc7 (threatening 27 Nxc4 and 28 Nd6++) Ra7 27 Bb6 Ra8 28 Nxc4. If 28 ... Rxf1+ 29 Rxf1 and Black must defend carefully.
If 24 ... e5 25 dxe5 Rf8 (not ... Rf5 26 Ne3 or ... Rf7 26 e6) 26 e6 (not Ne3 g5) Ra8 27 Ne3 and maybe 27 ... g5 28 Bc7 Ra7 29 Bb6 Ra8 30 Nxc4 etc.
If 24 ... bxc3 25 Bxb8 cxb2 26 Rb1 Rxf1+ 27 Kxf1. If 27 ... Bxd4 28 Bd6 [U]But we still have to analyze 25 ... c2 in this line.[/U]

[B]24 Rc1[/B] (removes rook from d4 fork-threat, can directly capture c4 in some lines, can support our N/c5 in some lines)

[B]24 Re1[/B] (avoid rook swap, attack isolated e6-pawn in order to burden the R/f6 with pawn-guard duty. If Black intends to try the d4 fork-threat, he first has to move his rook out of the way)

Since this still doesn't deter the d4 fork-threat, we have to consider what Black's rook move-out-of-the-way might add to the d4 threat. Rf8 and Rf7 don't seem to add anything.
If [B]23 exf6 Rxf6 24 Re1 [/B] Rf5 25 Nxe6 threatens 26 Nxg7. If then 25 ... Bxe6 26 Rxe6 threatens 27 Bxc6+, but 26 ... Rc8 leaves us only a pawn up.

[strike]24 Be3[/strike] (deters the d4 threat, but otherwise is inferior to alternatives)

[strike]24 Rxf6[/strike] (does not deter the d4 threat; indeed, actually assists it)

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-03-17 at 19:08
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Old 2014-03-18, 07:53   #29
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Again, our move 24 candidate list, pruned (previously crossed-off moves are deleted), and with some analysis lines revised or extended:

A) If 23 ... [B]B[/B]xf6

[B]24 Ne4[/B]
If 24 ... Nxd4 25 Nxf6+ and 26 cxd4 (defuses the d4 fork-threat)

[B]24 Bxh6[/B]
If 24 ... Rh8 25 Rxf6 Rxh6 26 Ne3 and we're a pawn up, plus threaten to win more, but must watch out for ... bxc3 and ... Rb2 etc. counterplay. [I]Also must still watch for d4 [/I][I]fork-threat if there's no bishop swap.[/I]

- - -

B) If 23 ... [B]R[/B]xf6

[B]24 Bf4
[/B]
If 24 ... Rb6 25 Bc7. So, [B]24 ... Ra8 25 Ne3[/B], possibly continuing 25 ... g5 26 Bc7 (threatening 27 Nxc4 and 28 Nd6++) Ra7 27 Bb6 Ra8 28 Nxc4. If 28 ... Rxf1+ 29 Rxf1 and Black must defend carefully.

If [B]24 ... e5 25 dxe5 Rf8[/B] (not ... Rf5 26 Ne3 or ... Rf7 26 e6) [B]26 e6[/B] (not 26 Ne3 g5) [B]Ra8 27 Ne3[/B] and maybe 27 ... g5 and Black is in deep, deep trouble after 28 Bc7: his king cannot move, and we threaten mate in two with Nxc4 and Nd6++.
28 ... Bxe6 (to avoid checkmate by guarding c4)
(if 28 ...Rxf1+ 29 Rxf1 Bxe6 and continue as below)
(not 28 ... Ra7 29 Bb6 Ra8 30 Nxc4 threatening mate with 31 Nd6++)
(not 28 ... Be5 29 Bxe5 Nxe5 30 Bxa8)
29 Nxe6 Rxf1+ 30 Rxf1 and Black is down a bishop, with no way to avoid further losses as far as I can see.
E.g., 30 ... bxc3 31 Nxg7+ Kd7 32 Bb6 or 30 ... Bh8 (any other bishop move results in capture) 31 Nf8 (imprisoning black K at e8) with threat of Nxc4-d6++
or
28 ... Ba6 (to avoid checkmate by guarding c4) 29 Ng4 and we're only a pawn up but Black is still in trouble.

If [B]24 ... bxc3 25 Bxb8 cxb2[/B] 26 Rb1 Rxf1+ 27 Kxf1 Bxd4 28 Bd6.
If [B]25 ... c2[/B] 26 Bc4 cxd1/Q 27 Raxd1 and we're up a rook for a knight.
If [B]25 ... Nxb8[/B] 26 bxc3 and we're up a rook for a bishop.

[B]24 Rc1[/B] (removes rook from d4 fork-threat, can directly capture c4 in some lines, can support our N/c5 in some lines)

[B]24 Re1[/B] (avoid rook swap, attack isolated e6-pawn in order to burden the R/f6 with pawn-guard duty. If Black intends to try the d4 fork-threat, he first has to move his rook out of the way)

Since this still doesn't deter the d4 fork-threat, we have to consider what Black's rook move-out-of-the-way might add to the d4 threat. Rf8 and Rf7 don't seem to add anything. Rf5 is the only alternative:

If [B]24 ... Rf5 25 Nxe6[/B] (threatens 26 Nxg7) [B]Bxe6 26 Rxe6[/B] (threatens 27 Bxc6+)[B] Rc8[/B] leaves us only a pawn up.
If 26 ... Nxd4 27 cxd4 Bxd4+ 28 Be3 (not Ne3 Bxb2) and we're up a bishop for a pawn.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-03-18 at 08:50
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Old 2014-03-18, 09:12   #30
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Extending the analysis after [B]23 ... Rxf6 24 Re1[/B]:

[QUOTE=cheesehead;369276]

B) If 23 ... [B]R[/B]xf6

< snip >

[B]24 Re1[/B] (avoid rook swap, attack isolated e6-pawn in order to burden the R/f6 with pawn-guard duty. If Black intends to try the d4 fork-threat, he first has to move his rook out of the way)

Since this still doesn't deter the d4 fork-threat, we have to consider what Black's rook move-out-of-the-way might add to the d4 threat. [strike] Rf8 and Rf7 don't seem to add anything. Rf5 is the only alternative:[/strike][/QUOTE]Oops. Wrong hasty conclusion about Rf7 and Rf8!

If [b]24 ... Rf7[/b] needs further analysis. (later)

If [b]24 ... Rf8[/b] needs further analysis. (later)

[quote]If [B]24 ... Rf5 25 Nxe6[/B] (threatens 26 Nxg7) [B]Bxe6 26 Rxe6[/B] (threatens 27 Bxc6+)[B] Rc8[/B] leaves us only a pawn up.
If 26 ... Nxd4 27 cxd4 Bxd4+ 28 Be3 (not Ne3 Bxb2) and we're up a bishop for a pawn.[/quote]Still okay, I think.
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Old 2014-03-18, 10:04   #31
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Man, for sure you have a lot of free time! :razz:
(otoh, this last part is very interesting! I have to go home and look deeper into it). I will post move 23 when I reach home, after a shower and something to eat (in ~2 hours).
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Old 2014-03-18, 18:51   #32
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Why, yes ... yes I (single, retired) do have a lot of free time. :-)

- - -

I've found a problem with the 23 ... Rxf6 24 Re1 line that _may_ render it inferior to the [B]24 Bf4[/B] line. I will post analysis later, but for now, just say that I think 24 Re1 is inferior to 24 Bf4 after 23 ... Rxf6.

- - -

Now, correcting (for the better) the analysis after 23 ... Rxf6 24 Bf4:

[QUOTE=cheesehead;369276]

B) If [B]23 ... Rxf6[/B]

[B]24 Bf4[/B]

If 24 ... Rb6 25 Bc7. So, [B]24 ... Ra8[/B] [/QUOTE]One aspect of this that I'd previously overlooked is that Ra8 escapes from one of our bishops [I]only to place itself in the sights of our other bishop[/I], with only the N/c6 in the way. In other words, Black self-pins his N/c6 (as a coercion of our force, of course) against his R/a8. This has implications for the d4 threat.

[quote]25 Ne3, possibly continuing 25 ... g5 26 Bc7 (threatening 27 Nxc4 and 28 Nd6++) Ra7 27 Bb6 Ra8 28 Nxc4. If 28 ... Rxf1+ 29 Rxf1 and Black must defend carefully.
[/quote]If 25 ... bxc3 26 bxc3 Nxd4 27 Bxa8 Ne2+ 28 Kg2 and Black is down a rook. He can cause trouble (... Bxc3), but we can cause it right back (Rad1).

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-03-18 at 18:55
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Old 2014-03-19, 04:11   #33
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[QUOTE=cheesehead;369313] just say that I think 24 Re1 is inferior to 24 Bf4 after 23 ... Rxf6.[/QUOTE]Just a thought:

If the Gekkota had thought 24 Bf4 might be played after 23 ...Rxf6, why didn't they play 22 ... g5 before ... f6 ?

(For that matter, if the Gekkota had thought that 24 Bxh6 might be played after 23 ... Bxf6, why didn't they play 22 ... g5 before ... f6 ? But in this case, they may have evaluated the bishop swap after 24 ... Rh8 as desirable/acceptable.)

Perhaps 22 ... g5 would have revealed that they were planning for ... f6 next?

Now, I'll just return to analysis of the position on the board, without the attempted mind-reading.

- - -

Extending analysis after [B]23 ... Rxf6 24 Bf4 Ra8[/B]:

[QUOTE=cheesehead;369313]< snip >

[quote]25 Ne3, possibly continuing 25 ... g5 26 Bc7 (threatening 27 Nxc4 and 28 Nd6++) Ra7 27 Bb6 Ra8 28 Nxc4. If 28 ... Rxf1+ 29 Rxf1 and Black must defend carefully.[/quote]If 25 ... bxc3 26 bxc3 Nxd4 27 Bxa8 Ne2+ 28 Kg2 and Black is down a rook. He can cause trouble (... Bxc3), but we can cause it right back (Rad1).[/QUOTE]But if we play 25 Ne3, Black could insert 25 ... Ra7 so as to prevent a later Bc7 by us. So, we have another candidate for move 25 in this line:

[B]25 Bc7[/B] If 25 ... Nd5 26 Bd6 e5 27 dxe5 Rxf1+ 28 Kxf1 Nce7 29 Bxe7 Kxe7 30 Bxd5 and we're up a piece and a pawn.
But if 25 ... Ra7 26 Bb6 Ra8 the d6 retreat is no longer available. If we were further along a BNNB mating path, that might not matter. But 27 Ne3 fits right in here. :) If 27 ... Nd5 28 Nxd5 exd5 29 Bxd5 threatens 30 Rae1+ discomforting Black's king.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-03-19 at 05:06
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