mersenneforum.org  

Go Back   mersenneforum.org > Fun Stuff > Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2021-12-08, 19:31   #331
ZFR
 
ZFR's Avatar
 
Feb 2008
Meath, Ireland

18310 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
I will post it a bit later. I may have to step away from the terminal at a moment's notice.
Thank you. Maybe you can add a link to a spreadsheet to the first post, so they are easy to find?
ZFR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-08, 20:32   #332
tuckerkao
 
"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020
Head Base M168202123

2×3×53 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
This is the list of currently active guesses (those stricken through were previous guesses that have been replaced under the rules). A number of them we have tested all of the exponents to that number, some we have passed the predicted date.
Post #291 was 3~4 pages to the left. Since ZFR didn't find it, I just quoted part of UncWilly's list, so ZFR can click on the right arrow and be redirected to the correct page within seconds.

Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2021-12-08 at 20:32
tuckerkao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-08, 20:41   #333
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
Uncwilly's Avatar
 
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

298A16 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckerkao View Post
It has been 61 days since that, so I'm eligible to request the P-1 of M196828523 from Kriesel and expect the PRP to be finished by 12/27/2021 if NF-PM1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
You can guess that number, but Kriesel is at liberty to ignore your guess and not do any work on it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckerkao View Post
I had a few private messages with Kriesel several months ago.
So are you making that a guess or just requesting Ken to test the number? Posting a number and talking vaguely about it is not a clear guess.
Uncwilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-08, 20:46   #334
tuckerkao
 
"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020
Head Base M168202123

2·3·53 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
So are you making that a guess or just requesting Ken to test the number? Posting a number and talking vaguely about it is not a clear guess.
M196828523 should be formally counted as 1 of my 3 guesses because it has been posted on this thread with a clear date and Kriesel accepted the PRP.

Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2021-12-08 at 20:52
tuckerkao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-08, 20:55   #335
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
Uncwilly's Avatar
 
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

2×13×409 Posts
Default

This is the list of currently active guesses (those stricken through were previous guesses that have been replaced under the rules). A number of them we have tested all of the exponents to that number, some we have passed the predicted date.

Code:
Who	When guessed	Exponent	When found
MattcAnderson	9/11/2019	84000013	4/1/2020
Uncwilly	12/28/2018	84000017	2/28/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	85020577	1/1/2020
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	85615531	10/1/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	87522767	1/3/2021
Petrw1  	12/12/2018	87654361	12/25/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	87668491	3/14/2019
moebius  	12/14/2018	87885437	
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	87946949	
kriesel  	12/21/2018	88318673	6/14/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	89065523	3/14/2020
Uncwilly	12/29/2018	89999999	4/15/2020
MattcAnderson	2/25/2021	90000049	12/25/2022
firejuggler	1/2/2019	90098611	2/1/2022
Viliam Furik	12/3/2019	91305491	1/18/2020
patrik  	12/18/2018	91502209	12/4/2020
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	91761547	3/14/2021
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	92074531	
christian_	12/27/2018	93456799	4/7/2019
axn     	12/21/2018	94029857	3/17/2021
sweety439	8/30/2019	94539113*	5/9/2021	*factored
Uncwilly	12/30/2018	95000167	9/24/2021
EWMayer  	12/12/2018	96000193	5/1/2021
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	96052357*	5/21/2021	*factored
Dylan14  	12/14/2018	97200647	2/2/2021
Spherical Cow	12/27/2018	97211981	10/30/2019
dcheuk  	3/10/2020	98350193	6/1/2020
Uncwilly	2/11/2020	99998441	7/31/2020	
Uncwilly	7/24/2020	100002751	10/6/2020
lukerichards			101834393*	8/1/2020	*factored
Primeinator	2/25/2021	102218101	3/1/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	102685711	2/4/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	102685769	2/4/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	103037743	2/4/2021
Primeinator	2/25/2021	103103437	3/31/2022
Raydex		2/15/2021	103237441	4/26/2021
tuckerkao	11/24/2020	103305173	
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	103347613
Primeinator	2/25/2021	104115637	8/31/2024	<==FTC complete above this
Uncwilly	9/29/2021	106456279	10/31/2021
christian_	12/27/2018	106456799	1/22/2020
axn    	 	12/21/2018	107054317	8/31/2023
Prime95 	12/16/2018	107448181	6/1/2022
Spherical Cow	2/11/2020	107448791*	2/9/2021	*factored
Zhangrc		8/4/2021	108765463	11/1/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287103	12/14/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287119	12/14/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287131	12/14/2021
Batalov   	12/12/2018	110691517	6/19/2022
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	110691683	1/3/2025
dannyridel	7/26/2020	111906173	1/2/2021
Uncwilly	9/29/2021	111999799	5/27/2022
firejuggler	5/8/2021	114034099	12/24/2022
masser  	8/3/2019	115856161	7/4/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	117003179	11/24/2022
firejuggler	5/8/2021	118034167	5/24/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	118788157	8/8/2020
ixfd64  	12/27/2018	121596589	10/8/2027
kriesel  	12/21/2018	121882753	5/21/2025
axn	        12/21/2018	121882903	7/12/2026
Petrw1  	10/13/2020	123456841	4/3/2021
Raydex		12/5/2020	125000089	5/2/2021
sweety439	8/4/2021	127027489	4/21/2023
moebius		12/19/2020	131508427	1/1/2026
christian_	12/27/2018	146456881	2/3/2022
masser  	10/13/2020	149929849	9/2/2024
Ensigm  	10/13/2020	150714349	12/11/2024
Brian-E  	12/21/2018	258150181	5/15/2027
Dobri		8/20/2021	194004047	8/15/2022
Dobri		8/20/2021	194004049	8/15/2022
tuckerkao	12/8/2021	196828523	
GP2     	1/4/2019	282362693	3/3/2025
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	310347613
Dobri		8/2/2021	332192957	8/23/2024
dcheuk  	9/1/2019	333898333	11/1/2019
kriesel  	12/21/2018	402143633*	3/12/2052	*factored
ONeil		12/5/2020	852348659	12/31/2024
moebius  	12/14/2018			1/13/2020
tServo  	12/14/2018			12/31/2019
greenskull	10/12/2021			2/10/2022

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2021-12-09 at 14:59 Reason: Added one that was overlooked
Uncwilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-08, 20:58   #336
tuckerkao
 
"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020
Head Base M168202123

10111011102 Posts
Default

Well, cross out M103347613 too, the milestone has passed that for over 60 days.

M310347613 should only appear once on the list and have M196828523 be included too.

Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2021-12-08 at 21:01
tuckerkao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-08, 21:01   #337
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
Uncwilly's Avatar
 
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

2×13×409 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckerkao View Post
M196828523 should be formally counted as 1 of my 3 guesses because it has been posted on this thread with a clear date and Kriesel accepted the PRP.
This is not a thread to ask Ken to do work for you. You did not say it was a guess you said " to request the P-1 of M196828523 from Kriesel" and then you stated when you thought that he might be done with the PRP.
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...6&postcount=16
Uncwilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-08, 21:04   #338
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

150108 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
So are you making that a guess or just requesting Ken to test the number? Posting a number and talking vaguely about it is not a clear guess.
Sounds like an Mp#52* prediction to me. Count it against his quota of 3. I think there's been ample precedent establishing that the rules will be interpreted as serves the house, not the players.

And I don't typically take computing requests from ordinary GIMPS participants, particularly not those demonstrating a lack of understanding or manners. (Well, one could offer sufficient cash in advance, then I might consider it. It's still fun to refute foolhardy guesses or predictions with cold hard facts, especially with PRP proof generation or a quickly found factor.)

This one is not shown in your list, but not yet refuted by known factor or PRP/GEC, and currently holds IIRC the record for most excessive exponent guessed for Mp#52*, 1,000,000,007.
https://mersenneforum.org/showpost.p...&postcount=229
Probably because as you explain in https://mersenneforum.org/showpost.p...&postcount=230 Matt was not eligible to make another prediction in the game at the time. It might make a better entry for predict M56 or M57 games.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-12-08 at 21:26
kriesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-08, 21:04   #339
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
Uncwilly's Avatar
 
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

2·13·409 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckerkao View Post
Well, cross out M103347613 too, the milestone has passed that for over 60 days.
Read the text at the top.
Quote:
M310347613 should only appear once on the list and have M196828523 be included too.
I miscopied a line. That has been fixed.

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2021-12-08 at 21:21 Reason: Insert missing bbcode tag
Uncwilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-09, 05:33   #340
Dobri
 
"Καλός"
May 2018

1010101102 Posts
Default

I had also a third guess, M332192957, before M194004047 and M194004049, see
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...&postcount=263.
Apparently, all three guesses have been verified as C-PRP.
Dobri is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-09, 06:30   #341
MattcAnderson
 
MattcAnderson's Avatar
 
"Matthew Anderson"
Dec 2010
Oregon, USA

48D16 Posts
Default just a shot in the dark

Matt three quarter

2^52 - 1 is 4503599627370495

Best guess is April 1, 2022.

Best Mattcanderson *smile*
MattcAnderson is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Predict M50 Uncwilly Lounge 65 2018-01-06 17:11
Predict M#50... Raman Lounge 3 2016-10-03 19:23
Predict M44... Xyzzy Lounge 66 2014-02-01 14:45
Predict M45... ewmayer Lounge 215 2008-09-17 21:14
Predict M42 Uncwilly Lounge 22 2005-02-27 02:11

All times are UTC. The time now is 01:08.


Sun Aug 14 01:08:30 UTC 2022 up 37 days, 19:55, 2 users, load averages: 0.87, 0.95, 0.98

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum has received and complied with 0 (zero) government requests for information.

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation.
A copy of the license is included in the FAQ.

≠ ± ∓ ÷ × · − √ ‰ ⊗ ⊕ ⊖ ⊘ ⊙ ≤ ≥ ≦ ≧ ≨ ≩ ≺ ≻ ≼ ≽ ⊏ ⊐ ⊑ ⊒ ² ³ °
∠ ∟ ° ≅ ~ ‖ ⟂ ⫛
≡ ≜ ≈ ∝ ∞ ≪ ≫ ⌊⌋ ⌈⌉ ∘ ∏ ∐ ∑ ∧ ∨ ∩ ∪ ⨀ ⊕ ⊗ 𝖕 𝖖 𝖗 ⊲ ⊳
∅ ∖ ∁ ↦ ↣ ∩ ∪ ⊆ ⊂ ⊄ ⊊ ⊇ ⊃ ⊅ ⊋ ⊖ ∈ ∉ ∋ ∌ ℕ ℤ ℚ ℝ ℂ ℵ ℶ ℷ ℸ 𝓟
¬ ∨ ∧ ⊕ → ← ⇒ ⇐ ⇔ ∀ ∃ ∄ ∴ ∵ ⊤ ⊥ ⊢ ⊨ ⫤ ⊣ … ⋯ ⋮ ⋰ ⋱
∫ ∬ ∭ ∮ ∯ ∰ ∇ ∆ δ ∂ ℱ ℒ ℓ
𝛢𝛼 𝛣𝛽 𝛤𝛾 𝛥𝛿 𝛦𝜀𝜖 𝛧𝜁 𝛨𝜂 𝛩𝜃𝜗 𝛪𝜄 𝛫𝜅 𝛬𝜆 𝛭𝜇 𝛮𝜈 𝛯𝜉 𝛰𝜊 𝛱𝜋 𝛲𝜌 𝛴𝜎𝜍 𝛵𝜏 𝛶𝜐 𝛷𝜙𝜑 𝛸𝜒 𝛹𝜓 𝛺𝜔