mersenneforum.org  

Go Back   mersenneforum.org > Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search > Data > Marin's Mersenne-aries

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2021-11-01, 21:13   #56
lycorn
 
lycorn's Avatar
 
"GIMFS"
Sep 2002
Oeiras, Portugal

17·89 Posts
Default

A Hotel California of sorts...
lycorn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-23, 01:58   #57
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

120268 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74 207 281): 263 377
Check at Mersenne.org:
Quote:
2021-11-23 00:37 UTC Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74207281): 258872
That's 4505 exponents in 21 days. At that rate, it would take about 1207 days to clear the remaining 258872 exponents, or around mid-March 2505 2025.

Of course, that mindless extrapolation disregards the fact that the exponents are getting bigger, and that consequently the rate of clearance might well go down.

So I'd say "no sooner than" mid March 2025. I would say this previously-offered estimate is quite reasonable:
Quote:
Originally Posted by masser View Post
<snip>
Here's a date estimate for proof of MP#49*: 2025-08-08

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2021-11-23 at 13:52
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-23, 02:40   #58
tuckerkao
 
"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020
Head Base M168202123

5·113 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
It is nice bold prediction!
GIMPS is a sect with no exit. Those who come here stay here forever.
At least not for DrKirkby, he came to run around 105 PRPs, then he quit, so I'm sure there are exits somewhere along the way.
tuckerkao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-23, 04:28   #59
techn1ciaN
 
techn1ciaN's Avatar
 
Oct 2021
U.S. / Maine

22×52 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Of course, that mindless extrapolation disregards the fact that the exponents are getting bigger, and that consequently the rate of clearance might well go down.
Is there any data on how much of our current DC throughput is coming from v<30 machines sending FTC requests and getting DC work back? If it's significant (say >10%), one has to consider that these systems are eventually going to either fall offline — probably sooner than the average GIMPS-contributing system just based on the age of the installation and the owner's lack of involvement — or finally be upgraded and restored to FTC work. This might be another handicap against a linear extrapolation from current throughput.
techn1ciaN is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-23, 13:38   #60
Viliam Furik
 
Viliam Furik's Avatar
 
"Viliam Furík"
Jul 2018
Martin, Slovakia

7×101 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
That's 4505 exponents in 21 days. At that rate, it would take about 1207 days to clear the remaining 258872 exponents, or around mid-March 2505.
I understand all the numbers here, except for the year 2505 (?!).
Viliam Furik is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-23, 13:56   #61
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

120268 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Viliam Furik View Post
I understand all the numbers here, except for the year 2505 (?!).
Oops. I really outdid myself that time! I meant 2025.

Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-12-01, 23:45   #62
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

2·5·593 Posts
Default First of month snapshot

Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 2021-12-01 23:30:09 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)

  • All exponents below 58 204 879 have been tested and verified.
  • All exponents below 106 068 059 have been tested at least once.
  • Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 107 million: 36
  • Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 108 million: 2 944 (864 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below 59 million: 25
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below 60 million: 3 576 (2 558 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74 207 281): 257 139
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(77 232 917): 312 347
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(82 589 933): 411 037
kriesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
[Mission Accomplished] Let's finish primality verification through Mp#48*, M(57 885 161) kriesel Marin's Mersenne-aries 136 2021-11-02 04:40
Verification of Feitsma's psp(2) data Happy5214 Computer Science & Computational Number Theory 5 2021-03-31 12:36
TF NF verification proposal from R. Gerbicz kriesel News 0 2019-02-24 15:47
Unsafe verification? CuriousKit PrimeNet 13 2015-06-21 14:49
Doing more about LL test verification jasong Software 13 2010-03-10 18:53

All times are UTC. The time now is 06:19.


Tue Dec 7 06:19:43 UTC 2021 up 137 days, 48 mins, 0 users, load averages: 1.52, 1.36, 1.32

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum has received and complied with 0 (zero) government requests for information.

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation.
A copy of the license is included in the FAQ.