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Old 2021-09-29, 22:53   #298
Uncwilly
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckerkao View Post
Good thing you just guessed an already certified composite exponent above.
Read Rule 4 carefully.
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Old 2021-09-29, 23:08   #299
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Read Rule 4 carefully.
If that exponent counted, you'd have to wait until the exponent milestone mark passes, then 60 more days. If that exponent didn't count, then you'd be free to pick another one with some other circumstances. Either way, you guessed and it didn't go well. I consider it goes well if Kriesel has to run 1 more PRP.

Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2021-09-29 at 23:09
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Old 2021-10-12, 11:02   #300
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What a lovely thread!

I will undertake to predict that the next Mersenne prime will most likely be found within one year, that is, until October 12, 2022.

If I need to give a date, then I will indicate the interval - February 10, 2022 ยฑ2.5 months.
I will limit myself only to the forecast of this interval, can I?

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2021-10-12 at 15:51 Reason: xignif spoty
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Old 2021-10-12, 11:31   #301
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No. Rule 2:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
There must be a specific date.
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Old 2021-10-12, 11:51   #302
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kruoli View Post
No. Rule 2:
There must be a specific date.
I already wrote the date above -- February 10, 2022.
At the moment I can only give one forecast for the date.
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Old 2021-10-12, 12:00   #303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
I already wrote the date above -- February 10, 2022.
At the moment I can only give one forecast for the date.
I was answering your question whether you are allowed to limit your"self only to the forecast of this interval" (my emphasis). If the given exact date is your guess, fine. But anything that has to do with an interval is not allowed.
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Old 2021-10-12, 12:30   #304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
<snip>
If I need to give a date, then I will indicate the interval
<snip>


Read the rules.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.)
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Old 2021-10-12, 12:34   #305
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post


Read the rules.
The interval provided by the (non reading ?) user also omits the most important thing : a Mersenne Number (an exponent in other words.)

I intended the following to be in the field "reasons for editing" but the text is too long :

'Of course rules have some arbitrary aspects ... but if playing a game you should abide by its rules and the way to "play" them.'

Last fiddled with by S485122 on 2021-10-12 at 12:43 Reason: editing, editing, editing, ...
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Old 2021-10-12, 12:41   #306
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Predicting WHEN and WHAT are generally two different predictions. And it is not at all necessary to combine them.
It is better to give the participant the opportunity to answer either one of these questions or two at his will.
At the moment, I have desire to answer the first.
And I have already answered the first one twice and I am answering again - on February 10, 2022.
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Old 2021-10-12, 13:43   #307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S485122 View Post
The interval provided by the (non reading ?) user also omits the most important thing : a Mersenne Number (an exponent in other words.)
Please read the rules carefully The guess must include a prime and/or a date. When guessed together, they are linked. If guessed as separate guesses, they are not. But, the limit of 3 total guesses applies to all methods of guessing (paired, prime only, or date only).

Expect in the next version of this, for range guesses to impose a wait to. Also, waits because of improper guesses will be longer than for expired guesses.
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Old 2021-10-12, 14:20   #308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Please read the rules carefully
This is a more difficult task than herding cats. Perhaps comparable to bats?
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