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View Poll Results: Will GIMPS Ever Discover 2 Primes Out of Sequence?
Yes 22 70.97%
No 9 29.03%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 2006-09-12, 04:07   #1
jinydu
 
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Default Will GIMPS Ever Discover Two Primes Out of Sequence?

Just curious what you think. Will GIMPS ever discover one prime, and then later discover another one smaller than the first?
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Old 2006-09-12, 04:09   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jinydu View Post
Just curious what you think. Will GIMPS ever discover one prime, and then later discover another one smaller than the first?
Sure, eventually.

It looks like it's time to change your profile.
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Old 2006-09-12, 04:23   #3
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I think it will happen eventually as well.
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Old 2006-09-12, 06:00   #4
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I, too, think jinydu will eventually change his profile.

(Will Primeinator? -- I don't know. )

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2006-09-12 at 06:03
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Old 2008-09-16, 16:13   #5
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22 out of 31 users guessed correctly.
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Old 2008-09-17, 22:41   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jinydu View Post
22 out of 31 users guessed correctly.
Another question that could have been asked would be:


Someday GIMPS will find a new prime that is lower than the current maximum mersenne prime, thus changing the order.
How long will it take before this smaller prime is found, thus correcting the order?

a) 14 days or less
b) 15 days - 6 months
c) 6 months - 2 years
d) 2 years - 5 years
e) longer than 5 years

Last fiddled with by uigrad on 2008-09-17 at 22:43
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Old 2008-09-17, 22:47   #7
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Quote:
Someday GIMPS will find a new prime that is lower than the current maximum mersenne prime, thus changing the order.
How long will it take before this smaller prime is found, thus correcting the order?

a) 14 days or less
b) 15 days - 6 months
c) 6 months - 2 years
d) 2 years - 5 years
e) longer than 5 years
I guess two to three years, if there is a smaller one to be found.
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Old 2008-09-17, 23:21   #8
Uncwilly
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uigrad View Post
Another question that could have been asked would be:
How long will it take before this smaller prime is found, thus correcting the order?

a) 14 days or less
b) 15 days - 6 months
c) 6 months - 2 years
d) 2 years - 5 years
e) longer than 5 years
Make your own poll.
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Old 2008-09-17, 23:48   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uigrad View Post
Someday GIMPS will find a new prime that is lower than the current maximum mersenne prime, thus changing the order.
How long will it take before this smaller prime is found, thus correcting the order?
Also, clarify:

(1) what is meant by "current maximum mersenne prime" -- the current M46 (so that you mean today's M46 will become M47), or whatever is the largest at the time the next out-of-order prime is found?

and

(2) what is meant by "How long will it take before this smaller prime is found" -- the time interval from today, September 17, 2008, or the time interval between the discovery of the then-largest prime and the discovery of a smaller one?

Suppose we find M47 = 55xxxxxx, then later M48 = 66xxxxxx, then another Mersenne prime at exponent 54xxxxxx. Is it to be the time interval between the discoveries of 55xxxxxx and 54xxxxxx, or the one between discoveries of 66xxxxxx and 54xxxxxx, or the one between today and discovery of 54xxxxxx?
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Old 2008-09-18, 05:15   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheesehead View Post
Also, clarify:

(1) what is meant by "current maximum mersenne prime"
(2) what is meant by "How long will it take before this smaller prime is found"
(1) I meant the first prime found that is larger than the "prime in the gap". As it turned out, that would have been M(Aug)
(2) Time from the first prime that was found above the gap (ie out of order) until all primes in the gaps are found.


I guess we could still vote, since we don't know if there are more primes in the gap, but I think that most people now would vote a).
Even if someone thinks that there is a greater than 50% chance that another prime hides between M39 and M46, they might not want to guess between the b-e choices, so that person may just pick a).

It's still remarkable to me that we had two found so close to each other, and that it happened with 2 primes that are of prize-qualifying size.
I was just trying to present that in a different way.

Last fiddled with by uigrad on 2008-09-18 at 05:16
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Old 2009-06-06, 16:32   #11
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deja vu
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