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Old 2020-03-26, 03:40   #353
kriesel
 
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Tonight's numbers
Globally (173 nations)
cases 470973, deaths 21276, recovered 114012
CFR1 = 21276 / (21276+114012) = 0.1573 = 15.73%
CFR2 = 21276 / 470973 = 0.0452 = 4.52%

US:
cases 68572, deaths 922, recovered 593
CFR1 = 922/ (922+593) = 0.6086 = 60.86%
CFR2 = 922 / 60572 = 0.0152 = 1.52%
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
globally, 471036 cases, 21283 deaths, 114218 recovered
USA: 68203 cases, 1027 deaths, 394 recovered, 66782 active cases of which 1452 are serious or critical; 206 cases/million pop, 3 deaths/million pop
US breakdown by state, territory, & DC https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
In Wisconsin, about 6% of >10,000 tests conducted were positive;
Washington state, >34,000 tests, 7% positive
California, 66800 tests, 3154 confirmed cases, 4.7% positive

It would be good to have some randomized testing, rather than symptom-based testing, to assess the prevalence of infection and of antibodies in the general population. Pseudorandom selection from census data is a way to go; shoot for 10,000 selected, 20% response, still gives 2000 which is pretty good for polling.
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Old 2020-03-26, 06:03   #354
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xilman View Post
UK appears to be following the Chinese trajectory.
Spain. France and US growth is still worryingly above the trend.
Italy appears to be levelling off.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Very nice site! Love the graphics, especially the small thumbnails, and the presentation.

Looking to South Korea, one can't stop wondering if the real target wasn't indeed their northern cousins... But eventually, the only parties who will gain from this are the big banks and the internet sharks. Gugu, seesaw, online educational platforms. How many schools and universities switched to "distance learning" or "remote teaching" or whatever is called?

Millions of new accounts for teachers, kids, parents...

Paid, of course...

OTOH, imagine you are parent and have 3 kinds at home, and have to teach them from what the teachers send on seesaw, like music scores, dance class, swimming (?!) class.. not talking about math, physics... and they are haunting the house, the kitchen, play on their phones and don't give a flux of what you are saying...

Swmbo use to joke that if this continues for a while, the parents will find a cure before the scientists.


Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2020-03-26 at 06:33
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Old 2020-03-26, 12:52   #355
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Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Most consumer ones are not the right spectrum nor strong enough. When I used to run coliform tests we had a UV sterilizer (for the funnels). It had an interlock so that it would not run when open. You didn't want that in your eyes or on your skin.
What about the UV lamps they use at tanning parlors?
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Old 2020-03-26, 13:37   #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retina View Post
Have you heard of Typhoid Mary?

Maybe this virus can remain contagious after someone has contracted it, displayed symptoms, and subsequently diagnosed as recovered. I don't know, does anyone know yet? Has such scenario been provably ruled out?
Dunno about that, but the similarly cheery prospect of people spreading the disease before showing symptoms seems to be looming larger.

A true carrier, though, never shows symptoms, and remains infected (and contagious) indefinitely. This is the case with typhoid carriers.

I don't know about human carriers of viral infections. However, it is well known that other animals are asymptomatic carriers of viral illnesses, like bats with rabies.

If there turn out to be large numbers of true carriers, the only real solution would seem to be everybody being infected or, eventually, vaccinated.
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Old 2020-03-26, 13:52   #357
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
What about the UV lamps they use at tanning parlors?
Not in the same class as the lamps used in this:
https://www.fishersci.ca/shop/produc...izer/xx6370000

Note the warning here for this.
https://www.atlantalightbulbs.com/uv...lamp-advisory/

Those operate at 254 nm (UV-C)

Here is a spectrum for tanning bed lamps. They tend toward UV-A
https://sep.yimg.com/ty/cdn/tan4less...ch-756x340.gif

These are not the same class.

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2020-03-26 at 17:01
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Old 2020-03-26, 16:39   #358
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Default No, the coronavirus wasn’t made in a lab. A genetic analysis shows it’s from nature

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...nalysis-nature
Quote:
The coronavirus pandemic circling the globe is caused by a natural virus, not one made in a lab, a new study says.

The virus’s genetic makeup reveals that SARS-CoV-2 isn’t a mishmash of known viruses, as might be expected if it were human-made. And it has unusual features that have only recently been identified in scaly anteaters called pangolins, evidence that the virus came from nature, Kristian Andersen and his colleagues report March 17 in Nature Medicine.

When Andersen, an infectious disease researcher at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, Calif., first heard about the coronavirus causing an outbreak in China, he wondered where the virus came from. Initially, researchers thought the virus was being spread by repeated infections jumping from animals in a seafood market in Wuhan, China, into humans and then being passed person to person. Analysis from other researchers has since suggested that the virus probably jumped only once from an animal into a person and has been spread human to human since about mid-November (SN: 3/4/20).

But shortly after the virus’s genetic makeup was revealed in early January, rumors began bubbling up that maybe the virus was engineered in a lab and either intentionally or accidentally released.
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Old 2020-03-26, 19:37   #359
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Gleaned from the Moscow Times:

03/23/20 Russia confirmed 71 new coronavirus infections on Monday, bringing the country’s official number of cases up to 438.

03/24/20 Russia confirmed 57 new coronavirus infections, bringing the country’s official number of cases up to 495.

03/25/20 -- I didn't see the number of new cases in Russia for March 25. However, if I did the subtraction right, there were 163 new cases on the 25th.

03/26/20 Russia confirmed 182 new coronavirus infections on Thursday, bringing the country's official number of cases up to 840

Also...
Quote:
Moscow will close all shops except for pharmacies and grocery stores, the city's mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. This measure, which also includes the closure of restaurants, cafes and bars, will last from March 28 until April 5, a period that President Vladimir Putin declared a paid holiday.
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Old 2020-03-26, 19:52   #360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
What about the UV lamps they use at tanning parlors?
Mostly UVA and a little UVB, no UVC which is the sterilizing type, but still presents a cancer risk and the possibility of eye damage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indoor...olet_radiation Further, they may actually harbor and communicate disease: "Tanning beds can contain many microbes, some of which are pathogens that can cause skin infections and gastric distress. In one study in New York in 2009, the most common pathogens found on tanning beds were Pseudomonas spp. (aeruginosa and putida), Bacillus spp., Klebsiella pneumoniae, Enterococcus species, Staphylococcus aureus, and Enterobacter cloacae." They don't provide sanitization; they require it.
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Old 2020-03-26, 20:05   #361
ATH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Gleaned from the Moscow Times:
FIDE stopped the chess Candidates Tournament 2020 in Russia, and postponed the 2nd half of the tournament:

https://chess24.com/en/read/news/fid...ped-at-halfway
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Old 2020-03-26, 21:13   #362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Mostly UVA and a little UVB, no UVC which is the sterilizing type, but still presents a cancer risk and the possibility of eye damage.
<snip>
I knew about the skin cancer and eye damage angles, and think tanning parlors should be closed for that reason alone. That list of pathogens is impressive!

I did run across one type of bulb they use (high-intensity discharge), which requires a "blue glass" filter because it emits UVC.

Perhaps if they replaced their UVA-UVB bulbs (or removed the filters on the UVC emitting bulbs) they could recreate their businesses as a service, sterilization for various items. Just plop 'em into the tanning bed, close it up, and turn on the light for a short time!
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Old 2020-03-26, 21:23   #363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Perhaps if they replaced their UVA-UVB bulbs (or removed the filters on the UVC emitting bulbs) they could recreate their businesses as a service, sterilization for various items. Just plop 'em into the tanning bed, close it up, and turn on the light for a short time!
Right. And then one of their regulars stops by for a tan, or the cosmetologist wants one herself. Off to the ER or hospital burn unit she goes. https://rockymountainurgentcare.com/...evere-sunburn/
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