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Old 2020-04-27, 01:09   #12
Chuck
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Batalov View Post
Then we will continue making updated vaccines seasonally, and it will join the family of seasonal viruses. You are damned if you do, and you are damned if you don't.
That's what I'm expecting; an annual Corona vaccine. Perhaps it can be combined with the annual flu vaccine.
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Old 2020-04-29, 21:45   #13
ewmayer
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Mix of optimistic/pessimistic vaccine-prospects links:

What if immunity to covid-19 doesn’t last? | MIT Technology Review

Coronavirus: Oxford vaccine effective in monkeys, heading for mass production in India | SCMP

Race for Coronavirus Vaccine Accelerates as Pfizer Says U.S. Testing to Begin Next Week | WSJ

How to Develop a COVID-19 Vaccine for All | Project Syndicate

Last fiddled with by ewmayer on 2020-04-29 at 21:46
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Old 2020-04-29, 22:11   #14
Batalov
 
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The Gilead's stockpiled Ebola drug (previously developed) has some use, it seems.

And if they'd not factor in a 10,000% margin, it could be as cheap as statins.

Quote:
A recent study published in the Journal of Virus Eradication attempts to analyze the cost of manufacturing remdesivir. The authors looked at the chemical synthesis of the drug and concluded that a 10-day course for one person would cost $9, allowing for 20 percent losses during formulation, plus the cost of the vials, a profit margin, and tax. However, whether it costs Gilead that to actually produce the drug is unknown, and one needn't be a scholar of the US healthcare system to be skeptical that a novel treatment would end up being quite so cheap.
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Old 2020-05-20, 10:51   #15
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Hey,

We should not be too optimistic I think, the vaccine will not arrive before 2021, it doesn't take two or three weeks to develop an effective vaccine for a new disease....

Anyway whatever
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Old 2020-05-25, 23:09   #16
ewmayer
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What the development of penicillin tells us about developing a coronavirus vaccine - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Quote:
In 2004, Eric Lax wrote a well-regarded book about the development of penicillin, the world’s first so-called miracle drug. Titled “The Mold in Dr. Florey’s Coat,” it made a complicated scientific topic accessible to a lay audience—and helped set the record straight about penicillin’s development. It also illuminated how much labor, time, money, technology, inspiration, and sheer luck went into the creation of penicillin. And it delved into the complicated interplay of personalities involved, or what The Guardian called “good fortune and squabbling” in its review of the book. In this interview, the Bulletin’s Dan Drollette Jr finds out what parallels—and differences—exist between the pressure to develop penicillin during World War II and the demand by public figures today for a vaccine to take out the coronavirus. And if we may be banking too much on a magic bullet to end the coronavirus pandemic in a few months.
...
Lax: I was reading The New York Times one morning and saw a lengthy obituary of a New Haven woman named Anne Miller. The Times had given her death two entire columns and a picture, because she was the first American to be treated with penicillin, and restored by it.

The more I read the obit, the stranger it became. Because I, like so many people, had always associated penicillin—the first so-called miracle drug—with Alexander Fleming.

But the more I read Miller’s obituary, the more I realized that Fleming didn’t really make it into the useful drug we know. Instead, that came about because of this small group of people at Oxford University, headed by someone named Howard Florey, about a dozen years later. But the obit didn’t go into much more—just enough to whet my appetite about penicillin’s origins. And there was that phrase: “First American saved by penicillin.”

But what really made this the book happen was that one of the main folks on the Oxford University research team, Norman Heatley, was still alive—though in his late ‘80s.

And I was able to get an interview with him for an hour, which became lunch, and then dinner. I wound up spending the next three days with him. In fact, for the next year, while I was deep into book research—I spent about a week per month in London—I always went down to see him; his stories were so good. But he’s the guy who figured out the whole process that allows us to get production of this drug in large volumes—which actually solved the penicillin problem.
...
even after discovering its potential, this team of British scientists still had to get it to grow in quantities large enough to be studied, identify the active ingredient, purify it, test it—safely—on people to make sure it had no unwanted side effects, then figure out how to make it on an industrial scale and distribute it. All under wartime conditions, with Hitler poised to invade England at any moment.

And a key item was producing large enough quantities to be useful.

Drollette: Quantity is that important?

Lax: Oh, yes. The war was such a needy time for an antibiotic, and lots of it; people still remembered the impact of sepsis in World War I. And for centuries before that, the diseases and infections associated with war were more deadly than the actual fighting. (In the American Civil War, twice as many soldiers died of disease as from battle). There was a point, in 1942 or ‘43, when the number two item on the US War Department’s wishlist was mass production of an antibiotic like penicillin. Number one was the atomic bomb.

And remember, there was no guarantee they’d be successful in getting penicillin to work; antibiotics had proved so elusive before. The most promising ones—sulfa drugs—had turned out to be such a disappointment.

Drollette: So it took 20-odd years for penicillin to go from laboratory curiosity to something that could be used to cure patients?

Lax: It’s hard to pinpoint, because penicillin languished in obscurity for a good 10 years, before Ernst Chain read about it and brought it up before his colleagues. They then started working on it in the lab in 1939, so it was maybe five or six years from then to something widely used.

Drollette: If penicillin took that long, do you think it’s a bit rushed to expect we’ll have a coronavirus vaccine in a few months?

Lax: At a minimum, I’d say it’s the height of optimism, or even magical thinking. It’s more a matter of years than a few months.

Although I have heard that some folks at the Jenner Institute [Oxford University’s nonprofit vaccine research unit] may have clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine relatively soon, based on work they’d already been doing on a similar coronavirus from last year. They’re starting preliminary trials now. So something may be available by sometime in 2021, which would just be extraordinary.

But I think a key point to remember is that the reason why Jenner’s having some luck is because they’ve been working on coronaviruses over the last 10 or 12 years. And so they can build off it.
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Old 2020-06-23, 14:20   #17
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Do you follow updates on a specific vaccine research? AZD1222 by Oxford University looks very promising.
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