20050106, 17:44  #1 
Dec 2003
Paisley Park & Neverland
5·37 Posts 
Milestones
I would like to see the following feature in some way (forum thread, PrimeNet output, etc.): The expected date when we (at current pace) will reach some milestones like
 firsttime LL assignments melt with 33M+ LL assignments  last exponent up to 79.3M assigned for LL  last exponent up to 79.3M assigned for DC  doublechecking proves X is the Yth mersenne prime  ... What do you think about it? 
20050106, 23:01  #2 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
3·7·383 Posts 
I think that the first one will be around Apr 1, 2006
Next Jan 1 2010 Next Jan 1 2011 
20050107, 07:28  #3  
"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA
2^{2}×3×641 Posts 
Quote:


20050107, 09:14  #4 
May 2004
Oslo, Norway
2^{3}·3·5 Posts 
It's always dangerous to extrapolate from current trends, but let's take a quick look at the figures:
According to the GIMPS Status page, there's 24631614 P90 years of LL work left. The current throughput according to PrimeNet Status is 1258.772 P90 LL yrs/day, equivalent to 1258.772*365 = 459451.78 P90 yrs/yr. So, 24631614 / 459451.78 gives an estimate of 53.6 years of LL work left (I think, correct me if my reasoning is wrong). Thus, UncWilly's estimate of Jan 1 2011 seems grossly exaggerated. Even if 20GHz, 64bits, dualCPU machines will become commodity level in a few years (which I sincerely doubt), we're probably talking about decades anyway. One unknown factor is the Chinese, of course. If they're getting several hundred millions of computers in a few years, a significant part of them may decide to join GIMPS. But then, the GIMPS project may have to be shut down because of its contribution to global warming regards, Leif. 
20050107, 11:04  #5  
Dec 2003
Paisley Park & Neverland
5·37 Posts 
Quote:
I would like to see: "Aaah! Event X was expected to be on April 25th 2054. NOW it is expected to happen on December 3rd 2038. We are great!! bla bla..." More stats for some people. More enthusiams for others. More involvement for the guys who do the calcualtions. 

20050109, 06:57  #6 
Aug 2003
Upstate NY, USA
2·163 Posts 
but as those doing LMH work and such find factors we cut out the # of LL time required
for example  I've gotten about 5% of my 6970M range so far, and if I can get another 3% of the remaining numbers to factor then we have plenty of LL time not needed anymore but I agree that 2010 is a bit early I'll guess 2018 for LLs assigned in the 79.3M and 2022 for DCs assigned in 79.3M 
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