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2020-03-18, 02:28   #210
kriesel

"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

11·347 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus It isn't just college towns closing the bars. In a bunch of states, all the bars -- and restaurants, too -- are forbidden to serve "sit-down" customers for the next two weeks, by order of their Governors. Take-out and delivery still allowed.
Yes. But "sleepy midwest states close their bars" just didn't seem to me as good a line. I live in Wisconsin, which has a statewide ban started 5pm tonight that's swiss-cheese riddled with exceptions. You can't serve anyone in a bar or restaurant, indefinitely, but delivery, takeout, or drivethru is ok. There are no limits on grocery stores, gas stations, etc. as long as people don't get too close to each other. The local village library closed starting yesterday. https://content.govdelivery.com/atta...er_3.17.20.pdf

2020-03-18, 02:35   #211
ewmayer
2ω=0

Sep 2002
República de California

22×3×929 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call You can always count on drug companies to unnecessarily complicate things just to make sure they can turn a profit. There are tens of thousands of recovered humans with ready to use antibodies in their blood plasma yesterday. Yet: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/rege...ly-summer.html
Not defending the Big Pharma greedheads, but I see several potential problems with an antibody-derived treatment:

1. We're dealing with a relatively-rapidly-evolving RNA virus, so besides the fact that antibody-based passive immunity fades quite rapidly and thus leaves one still-vulnerable should the bug still be circulating months later - very likely in this case - you have the issue of the antibody sub-serotype production keeping up with the natural evolution of the various strains. AFAIK we've no idea as yet as to the partial-immunity-providing properties of one specific-strain antibody against different strains.

2. Wikipedia:
Quote:
 Artificially acquired passive immunity is a short-term immunization achieved by the transfer of antibodies, which can be administered in several forms; as human or animal blood plasma or serum, as pooled human immunoglobulin for intravenous (IVIG) or intramuscular (IG) use, as high-titer human IVIG or IG from immunized donors or from donors recovering from the disease, and as monoclonal antibodies (MAb). Passive transfer is used to prevent disease or used prophylactically in the case of immunodeficiency diseases, such as hypogammaglobulinemia. It is also used in the treatment of several types of acute infection, and to treat poisoning. Immunity derived from passive immunization lasts for a few weeks to three to four months. There is also a potential risk for hypersensitivity reactions, and serum sickness, especially from gamma globulin of non-human origin. Passive immunity provides immediate protection, but the body does not develop memory, therefore the patient is at risk of being infected by the same pathogen later unless they acquire active immunity or vaccination.
OK, so regular revaccination will be required to maintain resistance to a given viral strain, until (we hope) an effective vaccine is developed. Next, the "serum sickness from gamma globulin of non-human origin" bit is important, because large-scale antibody mass-production typically requires a non-human substrate. Wikipedia sums up:
Quote:
 A disadvantage to passive immunity is that producing antibodies in a laboratory is expensive and difficult to do. In order to produce antibodies for infectious diseases, there is a need for possibly thousands of human donors to donate blood or immune animals' blood would be obtained for the antibodies. Patients who are immunized with the antibodies from animals may develop serum sickness due to the proteins from the immune animal and develop serious allergic reactions. Antibody treatments can be time consuming and are given through an intravenous injection or IV, while a vaccine shot or jab is less time consuming and has less risk of complication than an antibody treatment. Passive immunity is effective, but only lasts a short amount of time.

2020-03-18, 02:43   #212
CRGreathouse

Aug 2006

22·5·293 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ewmayer Not defending the Big Pharma greedheads, but I see several potential problems with an antibody-derived treatment: 1. We're dealing with a relatively-rapidly-evolving RNA virus, so besides the fact that antibody-based passive immunity fades quite rapidly and thus leaves one still-vulnerable should the bug still be circulating months later - very likely in this case - you have the issue of the antibody sub-serotype production keeping up with the natural evolution of the various strains. AFAIK we've no idea as yet as to the partial-immunity-providing properties of one specific-strain antibody against different strains. 2. Wikipedia: OK, so regular revaccination will be required to maintain resistance to a given viral strain, until (we hope) an effective vaccine is developed. Next, the "serum sickness from gamma globulin of non-human origin" bit is important, because large-scale antibody mass-production typically requires a non-human substrate. Wikipedia sums up:
I concur with ewmayer's analysis, with a slight caveat: coronaviruses have a repair mechanism that should make their error rate lower than you'd expect for an RNA virus, though I do still expect a relatively high mutation rate. I don't know of any numbers yet on COVID-19 yet.

2020-03-18, 11:30   #213
Dr Sardonicus

Feb 2017
Nowhere

2×53×13 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kriesel Yes. But "sleepy midwest states close their bars" just didn't seem to me as good a line.
Probably just as well.

You'd have the States of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio on Line One complaining about being called "sleepy."

You'd have the States of California, Colorado, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington on Line Two complaining about being called "midwestern."

And the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on Line Three complaining about being called "midwestern" and "states."

2020-03-18, 15:02   #214
Dr Sardonicus

Feb 2017
Nowhere

CB216 Posts

Quote:
Originally Posted by yours truly
Here is a sampling of our Great Leader's pronouncements:
Quote:
 Jan. 22: "We have it totally under control." Jan. 24: "It will all work out well." Feb. 14: "We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It's like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we're in very good shape." Feb. 19: "I think it's going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let's see what happens, but I think it's going to work out fine." Feb. 24: The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 24, 2020 Feb. 26: "Because of all we've done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That's a pretty good job we've done." Feb. 28: "It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear." March 12: "It's going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you're seeing coming out of other countries, it's pretty amazing when you think of it." March 15: "This is a very contagious virus. It's incredible. But it's something that we have tremendous control over."
And, from the Gaslighter-in-Chief on Saint Patrick's day:
Quote:
 I mean, I have seen that, where people actually liked it. But I didn't feel different. I've always known, this is a real -- this is a real -- this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic. All you had to do was look at other countries...no, I've always viewed it as very serious. It was no difference yesterday from days before. I feel the tone is similar, but some people said it wasn't.

 2020-03-18, 17:32 #215 Xyzzy     "Mike" Aug 2002 7·29·37 Posts
 2020-03-18, 17:45 #216 xilman Bamboozled!     May 2003 Down not across 23·1,249 Posts Excellent data and graphs at the Financial Times. A 33% growth rate per diem fits the data from sundry sources remarkably well. There is an interesting up-tick in the US rates over the last couple of days. My view is that it may well be significant but could just be a statistical blip.
2020-03-18, 18:44   #217
VBCurtis

"Curtis"
Feb 2005
Riverside, CA

3·7·199 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by xilman There is an interesting up-tick in the US rates over the last couple of days. My view is that it may well be significant but could just be a statistical blip.
Reflects the US finally getting going with widespread testing... I hope?
If so, is that a subset of "blip"?

2020-03-18, 18:59   #218
a1call

"Rashid Naimi"
Oct 2015
Out of my Body

1,801 Posts

Quote:
 10:55 am: Volunteer threatened with lawsuit after 3-D printing an $11,000 valve for$1 In Italy, a good Samaritan could be facing legal action for providing a hospital with special valves needed for breathing equipment that keeps coronavirus patients alive, according to a report from Techdirt. Cristian Fracassi used a 3D printer to make the valves after the original manufacturer could not provide them due to overwhelming demand. Fracassi had to design the valves himself after the manufacturer refused to provide the 3D files, and he ultimately donated more than 100 valves to the hospital, each one costing him around $1 to make. The regular listing price of the valve is about$11,000, and the manufacturer has threatened to sue Fracassi for patent infringement, leaving him fearful of sharing the 3D file with other hospitals that need the valve. —Hannah Miller

2020-03-18, 19:22   #219
ewmayer
2ω=0

Sep 2002
República de California

2B8C16 Posts

A view from Spain:

Welcome to Dystopia: My Life Under Lockdown in Spain | Nick Corbishley for Wolf Street
Quote:
 Pressure is also mounting on the government to suspend mortgage payments, rents and utility bills for the next month, as has already happened in France. To prevent the virus crisis from “triggering a new housing crisis”, the government needs to implement broad social and economic measures, said a joint statement by the country’s two largest tenants unions, whose membership has soared in recent days Even before this crisis hit, many tenants in cities like Barcelona, Madrid, Palma de Mallorca and Malaga were already struggling to pay their astronomical rents. Even if landlords demand full payment this month, in many cases they won’t get it. Then, what will they do? Throw out the tenants, knowing full well that the same thing is happening in buildings across the city? Who will they rent out the newly vacated apartments to? Tourists? Ha! Finally, this crisis can also hit in another more subtle way, as my Mexican mother-in-law has learned. And that is through currency depreciation. A month and a half ago, she sold her apartment in Mexico City with a view to using the money to live in a rented apartment in Barcelona, where her only daughter lives. But since she had no bank account in Spain she could not transfer the funds (in pesos) straight away and had to wait until she got here. By the time she arrived the already weak peso had lost roughly 20% of its value against the euro. Now, my mother-in-law is on lock down in her daughter and son-in-law’s apartment. In euro-terms, she’s 20% poorer than she was a month ago. For the moment, the three of us are living in relative harmony. We do not want for anything, apart from job security and the occasional evening stroll together. We have enough food (having stocked up in the preceding weeks), some toilet paper (but not too much), lots of books to read (and reread), films to watch (and re-watch), card games to learn, friends to speak to, the Mediterranean sun shining on the balcony and through the windows, and even the sound of birdsong, a weird but welcome element of our new reality. Most importantly, we have our health (touch wood) and each other.

2020-03-18, 22:30   #220
ewmayer
2ω=0

Sep 2002
República de California

256148 Posts

Re. the a1call-linked story about the 3D "guerilla printing" of a key medical part and the resulting threatened lawsuit by the manufacturer - governments can (and I expect will do en masse in short order) simply invoke emergency powers here:

Trump invokes Defense Production Act as coronavirus response The Hill
Quote:
More on the surprisingly tricky aspect of N85 mask manufacture:

COVID-19 Has Caused A Shortage Of Face Masks. But They’re Surprisingly Hard To Make NPR
Quote:
 Both the masks made for medical personnel and for consumer purchase require a once-obscure material called melt-blown fabric. It’s an extremely fine mesh of synthetic polymer fibers that forms the critical inner filtration layer of a mask, allowing the wearer to breath while reducing the inflow of possible infectious particles. ‘We’re talking about fibers where one filament has a diameter of less than one micron, so we are in the nano area,’ said Markus Müller, the sales director at German company Reicofil, a major provider of melt-blown machine lines. And there’s now a global shortage of melt-blown fabric due to the increased demand for masks — and the difficulty in producing this material.
Note that this sort of issue - everything else is easy, but there is one tricky subcomponent that is very difficult to manufacture - is ubiquitous in modern manufacturing chains. So the western world's wartime-rationing-style crash course in re-onshoring of manufacture, and refurbishment and re-use of existing gear is going to involve a lot of creative solutions. Suspending patent enforcement in this context is more or less required.

Last fiddled with by ewmayer on 2020-03-18 at 22:32