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Old 2014-05-02, 08:50   #12
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(Referring to [B]27 Bf4[/B])
[QUOTE=LaurV;372455]This is indeed bad for us. They can directly 27 ...Bxd4+,[/QUOTE]I.e., [B] 27 Bf4 Bxd4+[/B]
[quote]to which they get at least a figure plus a pawn, plus we lose everything in the center.[/quote]No, no! It's not that bad!

Black can [I]temporarily[/I] gain two pawns (not a piece!), but we get one of them back quickly, and then can attack other Black pawns before Black can attack our pawns.
[B]27 Bf4 Bxd4+[/B].
[B]28 Be3 cxb2 29 Rb1[/B]
Then Black could proceed [speculation] [B]29 ... Bxe3+ 30 Nxe3 Ne5 31 Nd1 Nc4 32 Bf1[/B]. Here if [B]32 ... Na3 33 Rxb2[/B] (getting one pawn back)[B] Rxb2 34 Nxb2 e5[/B] (in order to get the bishop out) [B]35 Nd3 Nc6 36 Bg2[/B] and we're threatening to get the e-pawn.

Also, we can go other routes to attack Black's pawns on the sides before they can attack ours.

However, the forced 28 Be3 retreat does show that 27 Bf4 isn't our best move 27. It's better that we re-take 27 bxc3 so as to have our c-pawn pressing on d4 to deter Bxd4+.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-05-02 at 09:07
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Old 2014-05-02, 09:32   #13
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You are right about the two pawns and no figure.

[speculation:] (I agree that [B]27 bxc3[/B] is our best move right now, but I just try to investigate other non-mentioned paths, in case we forgot something). How about we play 27 Nd6 first, and do bxc3 after? Does it have any merit? How this influences the position? Remark that black can move Kd8 or Kf8 only, in this position. Which one is better? Does the attach worth losing our influence with the horse on the center and lower side of the board?
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Old 2014-05-02, 10:08   #14
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Continuing analysis after [B]27 bxc3 Nb4[/B], from post #10

[QUOTE=cheesehead;372437]< snip >

[B]28 Rd1[/B] threatens 29 cxb4.[/QUOTE]
If [B]28 ... Na2 [/B][B]29 Nxa5[/B] and we're two pawns up.
If [B]28 ... Nc2 29 Rc1[/B] and if[B] 29 ... Nxd4 30 cxd4 Bxd4+[/B] either [B]31 Be3[/B] or [B]31 Ne3[/B] guards our N/c5.
The next two are the same as after 28 Rc1:
If [B]28 ... Nd3 29 Nxd3[/B]
If [B]28 ... Nbd5[/B][B] 29 Nd6+ K-move 30 Nxc8 and 31 Nxe6[/B]
If [B]28 ... Na6[/B][B] 29 Nd6+ K-move 30 Nxc8[/B] Here,
if 30 ... Kxc8 31 Nxa6 Black can't threaten much with his rook and our N/a6 can hop back safely to c5 ... and we're a bishop up.
if 30 ... Nxc8 31 Nxe6+ Ke8 or Ke7 32 Nxg7 and Black can't trap our knight: e.g. 32 ... Kf7 33 Bxh6 g5 34 Be4 Rb6 35 Rf1+ Kg8 36 Nf5 Kh7 37 Bxg5. We stay at least a piece and pawn up.
if 30 ... Nxc5 31 Nxe7
if 31 Nxa4 32 Nc6+ forking K and R.
if 31 Kxe7 dxc5 we have doubled isolated c-pawns, but we're up a bishop.

[B]28 Re1[/B] threatens not only 29 cxb4 but also Nxe6.
If [B]28 ... Na2[/B][B]29 Nxa5[/B] and we're two pawns up, with the same Nxe6 threat.
If [B]28 ... Nc2[/B] [B]29 Rc1[/B] and if[B] 29 ... Nxd4 30 cxd4 Bxd4+[/B] either [B]31 Be3[/B] or [B]31 Ne3[/B] guards our N/c5.
If [B]28 ... Nd3[/B][B] 29 Nxd3[/B]
If [B]28 ... Nbd5[/B][B] 29 Nxe6 Bxe6 30 Rxe6 Nc7 (or Rb1+) 31 Re1 [/B]we're two pawns up.
If [B]28 ... Na6[/B][B] 29 Nd6+ K-move 30 Nxc8[/B] and it's pretty much the same as with our rook on d1, except here we're bearing on e6 with our rook.

[B]28 Rf1[/B] - the analysis is pretty much the same as for [B]28 Rd1[/B][B].
If 28 ... Na6 29 Nxa6 Bxa6[/B] skewers our N/c4 and R/f1, but that's not a real threat: [B]30 Nd6+[/B] saves us:
If 30 ... Kd7 31 Rf7 Bxd4+ 32 cxd4 and if 32 ... Kxd6 33 Bf4+[B]. [/B]If now 33 ... e5 34 Bxe5+ Ke6 35 Rf6+ Kd7 (or Kd5) 36 Bxb8.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-05-02 at 10:16
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Old 2014-05-02, 16:07   #15
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[QUOTE=LaurV;372468][speculation:] (I agree that [B]27 bxc3[/B] is our best move right now, but I just try to investigate other non-mentioned paths, in case we forgot something).[/QUOTE]Great! We have plenty of time to look around.

[quote]How about we play 27 Nd6 first, and do bxc3 after? Does it have any merit?[/quote]Considering that after [B]26 bxc3[/B] our B/d2 is [I]en prise[/I], whatever alternative we play has to be so forcing that Black can't afford cxd2. Nd6+ is a check, so is most forcing, but any subsequent move that delays capturing the c3-pawn (or moving our B/d2) has to be worth more than a bishop. If we move the B/d2 then we have to offset the value of Black's possible ... cxb2 which attacks our [I]rook[/I].

After [B]27 Nd6+ Kd8[/B] we have the also-forcing [B]28 Nf7+[/B]. If Black responds with [B]28 ... Kc7[/B] then with [B]29 Bxh6[/B] we move the B/d2 and threaten Bxg7. However, Black has the worth-more-than-a-bishop move [B]29 ... cxb2[/B] threatening 30 ... bxa1/Q+, which is a game-decider! We'd have to play [B]30 Rb1[/B] whereupon Black would play [B]30 ... Bxd4+[/B] winning our N/c5 -- also a game-decider. So this isn't good for us.
But if Black played the other king move after our 28 Nf7+: [B]28 ... Ke8[/B] we'd have to repeat a position with [B]29 Nd6+[/B], which doesn't get us anywhere.

If Black plays the other king move on move 27: [B]27 Nd6+ Kf8[/B] we have [B]28 Rf1+[/B] but after [B]28 ... Kg8[/B] we run out of checks and have to do [B]29 bxc3[/B] anyway.

[quote]How this influences the position? Remark that black can move Kd8 or Kf8 only, in this position. Which one is better?[/quote]If Black wants a draw by repetition, Kd8 invites (but does not force) one. Kf8 allows Black to hide his King on g8, as if he'd castled properly back on move 20.

Neither one is good for us.

[quote]Does the attach worth losing our influence with the horse on the center and lower side of the board?[/quote]No.

We can only chase Black's king around, not checkmate him. Then after our eventual bxc3 recapture, Black could move Rb2, threatening our B/d2 and causing us various trouble. We could only calm things back down by recalling our N/d6 back to c4, and moving our R/f1 back to the queen-side.

I see no net value for us in any alternative to [B]27 bxc3[/B].

But we can still use our time to explore move 28 possibilities and beyond.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-05-02 at 16:16
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Old 2014-05-03, 22:37   #16
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Correction:[QUOTE=cheesehead;372484]Considering that after [strike][B]26 bxc3[/B][/strike][/quote][B]26 ... bxc3[/B][quote] our B/d2 is [I]en prise[/I],[/QUOTE]
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Old 2014-05-05, 12:01   #17
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Our deadline (with a one-hour cut to avoid oversteppage) is Tuesday, May 6, 17:26 GMT = Wednesday, May 7, 00:26 Thai time = Tuesday, May 6, 13:26 EDT = Tuesday, May 6, 12:36 CDT. About 29-1/2 hours from when I post this.

- - -

Vote:

27 bxc3 -- 5
else -- 0

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-05-05 at 12:07
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Old 2014-05-05, 13:19   #18
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Same vote here:

27 bxc3 -- 5
else -- 0

Most probably we can't do better, and this is already quite ok for us.

To which they will most probably answer 27...Nxd4 (otherwise black is in very deep sh!t), followed by 28 Re1. We can already post it, and see what they come up with.

I will play the move, to get rid of the responsibility :razz:, it makes no sense to wait, and maybe they reply before weekend.
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Old 2014-05-05, 20:19   #19
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I'm in full agreement with both of you on this move selection. This would also be a good time to post it as well.
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Old 2014-05-06, 02:57   #20
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Good we all agree. Posted.
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